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We expect 2014 GDP growth in Albania to slightly accelerate to 1.7%; the reason being a mix of a statistical base year effect and strong foreign investment in the energy sector. However, restrictive fiscal policy and reduced lending activity owing to high levels of NPLs will likely curtail economic growth to 1.5% in 2015 and 1% in 2016. The current and expected meagre growth is not only a far cry from the pre-crisis performance but will not suffice to generate a visible income convergence.
|Main Economic Indicators||2011||2012||2013||2014||2015||2016|
|Population, 1000 persons.||2829||2802||2840||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||3.1||1.5||1.0||1.7||1.5||1.0|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||7500||7800||7900||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||25.5||46.2||27.2||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||14.0||13.4||15.6||15.0||15.0||15.5|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||260||283||291||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||3.4||2.0||2.0||1.0||1.0||1.0|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-3.6||-3.4||-4.7||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||58.6||60.9||70.0||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-13.4||-10.1||-10.4||-9.5||-8.8||-7.8|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||630||666||923||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||54.3||57.2||57.9||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
ALBANIA: INSTAT replay
in: Investment to the Rescue
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2014, March 2014 , pp. 89-90 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 11/2013
Vasily Astrov, Vladimir Gligorov, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner and Olga Pindyuk
wiiw Monthly Report No. 11, November 2013
38 pages including 17 Tables Details