Buoyant household consumption and private investment have had a positive impact on GDP growth acceleration; sluggish external demand for Albanian products partly due to shrinkage in oil and mineral exports has had the opposite effect. Fiscal consolidation has mostly part been backed by containment of expenditures and a rise in revenues. Based on expectations of strong domestic demand, we have revised our forecast upwards slightly to 3.0%, 3.3% and 3.6% for 2016, 2017 and 2018, respectively.
|Main Economic Indicators||2014||2015||2016||2017||2018||2019|
|Population, 1000 persons.||2894||2889||2886||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||1.8||2.6||3.2||3.3||3.6||.|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||8300||8600||8900||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||1.6||-5.0||-7.0||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||17.5||17.1||15.2||15.3||15.0||.|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||325||335||355||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||1.6||1.9||1.3||2.3||2.8||.|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-5.2||-4.1||-2.1||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||70.1||72.7||71.6||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-12.9||-10.8||-11.5||-10.3||-9.3||.|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||869||890||860||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||69.5||74.9||72.0||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
ALBANIA: China, the new old strategic partner?
in: Labour Shortages Driving Economic Growth?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2016, November 2016 , pp. 43-46 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2016
Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Simona Jokubauskaite, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2016
25 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure