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The recent reduction in the current account deficit is not only due to a robust export performance but also due to falling imports. Especially the reduction in the imports of machinery is worrisome as this is a further indicator of the lack of private investment. This is also one of the reasons why we have to correct our GDP growth forecast for 2013 downwards, from 3.5% to 2.3%. Also, due to the prolonged deleveraging process in the Albanian business sector and announced austerity by the new Albanian government, we are compelled to reduce our GDP growth forecasts for 2014 and 2015 downwards, to 1.7% and 1.5% (from 2.5% and 3%, respectively) as compared to our last forecast report in July.
|Main Economic Indicators||2011||2012||2013||2014||2015||2016|
|Population, 1000 persons.||2829||2802||2840||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||3.1||1.5||1.0||1.7||1.5||.|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||7500||7800||7900||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||25.5||46.2||27.2||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||14.0||13.4||14.0||15.0||15.0||.|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||260||283||291||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||3.4||2.0||2.0||1.0||1.0||.|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-3.6||-3.4||-6.0||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||58.6||60.9||70.0||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-13.0||-10.6||-11.2||-8.9||-7.7||.|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||745||745||950||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||52.5||54.8||55.9||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Albania: Deleveraging and improved business confidence – unity and conflict of opposites
in: Animal Spirits still Dimmed: Slow Recovery Expected
wiiw Current Analyses and Forecasts No. 12, July 2013 , pp. 119-120 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 11/2013
Vasily Astrov, Vladimir Gligorov, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner and Olga Pindyuk
wiiw Monthly Report No. 11, November 2013
38 pages including 17 Tables Details