A credit market lacking vigour, a contraction of exports and meagre fiscal performance are restraining economic growth. Differently, an outstanding performance in terms of gross fixed capital formation, foreign direct investments and remittances, which are flourishing again, is expected to boost the economy by 2.6% in 2015. Growth above 3% is expected in 2016-2017. The rigorous campaign against the shadow economy and consequently a more efficient tax collection can open up more space for public investments.
|Main Economic Indicators||2012||2013||2014||2015||2016||2017|
|Population, 1000 persons.||2900||2897||2894||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||1.4||1.1||2.2||2.6||3.2||3.6|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||7300||7400||7800||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||15.7||28.3||1.6||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||13.4||15.9||17.5||16.8||16.3||16.0|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||270||259||264||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||2.0||1.9||1.6||2.0||2.3||2.5|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-3.4||-5.0||-5.2||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||62.1||70.9||70.2||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||.||-10.9||-12.9||-10.0||-10.0||-9.0|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||.||945||869||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||57.5||66.1||69.6||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
ALBANIA: The challenge of stepping out of the shadow
in: Mixed Prospects: Consumption Leads Fragile Recovery in the CESEE Core – CIS Stumbles
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2015, November 2015 , pp. 53-56 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2015
Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2015
25 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures