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The Russian economy is languishing in a prolonged slump. The country was already ‘stuck in transition and stagnation’ before the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis. The current sanctions deter investments, foster capital outflows and boost inflation. Turning inwards and developing import substitution strategies using accumulated domestic resources may prevent an outright recession, but it will not kick-start the requisite modernisation drive. The wiiw baseline scenario – assuming no further escalation of the Ukraine conflict – reckons with a meagre acceleration of GDP growth based on a gradual revival of investment. The above notwithstanding, the conflict over Ukraine will have a lasting impact on trade, investments and integration with Europe.
|Main Economic Indicators||2011||2012||2013||2014||2015||2016|
|Population, 1000 persons.||142961||143202||143507||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||4.3||3.4||1.3||0.5||1.3||1.9|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||17000||18000||18100||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||5.0||3.4||0.4||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||6.5||5.5||5.5||5.3||5.2||5.0|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||572||667||709||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||8.5||5.1||6.8||7.5||7.0||6.0|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||1.5||0.4||-1.3||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||9.0||10.0||10.4||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||5.1||3.6||1.6||3.1||3.4||3.0|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||39557||39353||53187||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||30.4||30.8||33.6||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
RUSSIAN FEDERATION: Stagnation and isolation ahead
in: On Thin Ice: CESEE Core Resilient in the Face of EU Stagnation and the Ukraine Crisis
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2014, November 2014 , pp. 117-120 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 10/2014
Vasily Astrov, Vladimir Gligorov, Julia Grübler, Peter Havlik, Michael Landesmann, Sandra M. Leitner, Olga Pindyuk, Marek Rojicek and Roman Stöllinger
wiiw Monthly Report No. 10, October 2014
44 pages including 21 Tables and 5 Figures Details