Russia

The Russian economy plunged into a full-blown recession in 2015. Both exports and (even more so) imports were slashed, while the current account surplus surged upwards. The recession may have already bottomed out by mid-2015, yet there is no consensus as to the country’s future prospects. Depending on the oil price, Russia may face another mild GDP decline in 2016, although stabilisation or even a modest growth seems more likely. Nevertheless, growth will remain unimpressive even in the medium term since restructuring will not materialise.

map Russia
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201320142015201620172018
Population, 1000 persons.143507146091146394...
GDP, real change in %1.30.8-3.71.01.4.
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)189001940020400...
Gross industrial production, real change in %0.41.7-3.4...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average5.55.25.55.35.3.
Average gross monthly wages, EUR705640501...
Consumer prices, % p.a.6.87.815.58.06.0.
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-1.2-1.1-3.0...
Public debt in % of GDP9.810.815.0...
Current account in % of GDP1.62.94.75.95.0.
FDI inflow, EUR mn52107173041500...
Gross external debt in % of GDP31.632.137.3...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 12/2015

Amat Adarov, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Leon Podkaminer and Roman Römisch
wiiw Monthly Report No. 12,
50 pages including 18 Figures

Details

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RUSSIAN FEDERATION: Recession already over?

Peter Havlik
in: Mixed Prospects: Consumption Leads Fragile Recovery in the CESEE Core – CIS Stumbles
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2015, , pp. 113-117
Details and Buy


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