Contrary to earlier expectations, the Russian economy will remain in recession in 2016. With oil prices having plunged anew at the beginning of 2016, export and budget revenues will drop. The envisaged cuts in expenditure will affect both consumption and investments. Barring additional external shocks, the economy may stabilise in 2017. Given the absence of reforms and investments for diversification and modernisation, economic growth will remain sluggish – even in the medium term.
|Main Economic Indicators||2013||2014||2015||2016||2017||2018|
|Population, 1000 persons.||143507||146091||146394||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||1.3||0.7||-3.7||-0.8||0.8||1.8|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||17800||18700||18400||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||0.4||1.7||-3.4||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||5.5||5.2||5.6||5.3||5.3||5.3|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||705||640||501||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||6.8||7.8||15.5||10.0||6.0||6.0|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-1.2||-1.1||-3.5||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||9.8||10.8||10.6||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||1.5||2.9||5.2||4.8||4.2||4.9|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||52107||16655||4351||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||31.6||32.2||39.6||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
RUSSIAN FEDERATION: Recession not yet over
in: Growth Stabilises: Investment a Major Driver, Except in Countries Plagued by Recession
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2016, March 2016 , pp. 113-116 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 12/2015
Amat Adarov, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Leon Podkaminer and Roman Römisch
wiiw Monthly Report No. 12, December 2015
50 pages including 18 Figures