The Russian economy plunged into a full-blown recession in 2015. Both exports and (even more so) imports were slashed, while the current account surplus surged upwards. The recession may have already bottomed out by mid-2015, yet there is no consensus as to the country’s future prospects. Depending on the oil price, Russia may face another mild GDP decline in 2016, although stabilisation or even a modest growth seems more likely. Nevertheless, growth will remain unimpressive even in the medium term since restructuring will not materialise.
|Main Economic Indicators||2012||2013||2014||2015||2016||2017|
|Population, 1000 persons.||143202||143507||146091||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||3.4||1.3||0.6||-3.7||1.0||1.4|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||18300||18900||19400||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||3.4||0.4||1.7||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||5.5||5.5||5.2||5.3||5.3||5.3|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||667||705||644||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||5.1||6.8||7.8||15.0||8.0||6.0|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||0.4||-1.3||-1.2||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||10.0||10.5||11.8||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||3.6||1.7||3.1||7.0||5.9||5.0|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||39353||52107||17225||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||30.9||33.9||34.8||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
RUSSIAN FEDERATION: Recession already over?
in: Mixed Prospects: Consumption Leads Fragile Recovery in the CESEE Core – CIS Stumbles
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2015, November 2015 , pp. 113-117 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 9/2015
Amat Adarov, Fatos Hoxha, Werner Laventure and Isilda Mara
wiiw Monthly Report No. 9, September 2015
47 pages including 3 Tables and 33 Figures