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In Russia, economic growth has been slowing down as industrial production and investment stagnate. A drop in energy prices and export revenues owing to the expected ‘shale gas price shock’ has cast a dark shadow over Russia’s growth prospects. Together with the persistent crisis in the euro-area, all those factors point up the urgency of the attempts to diversify, modernise and restructure the Russian economy. wiiw has revised its GDP growth forecast downwards and continues to expect an unspectacular GDP growth rate during 2014-2015. Simultaneously, the annual CPI inflation will settle down at 5% p.a., the budget will remain balanced and the rate of unemployment stable at some 6%.
|Main Economic Indicators||2010||2011||2012||2013||2014||2015|
|Population, 1000 persons.||142861||142961||143202||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||4.5||4.3||3.4||1.7||2.1||2.9|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||12600||13300||14000||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||8.2||4.7||2.6||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||7.3||6.5||5.5||5.5||5.5||5.5|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||520||572||667||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||6.9||8.5||5.1||7.0||5.5||5.0|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-3.4||1.5||0.4||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||8.4||9.0||9.6||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||4.4||5.1||3.6||2.9||2.5||2.2|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||32545||39557||39353||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||32.1||30.5||30.7||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Russian Federation: Growth stumbles – how much and for how long?
in: Animal Spirits still Dimmed: Slow Recovery Expected
wiiw Current Analyses and Forecasts No. 12, July 2013 , pp. 131-134 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 11/2013
Vasily Astrov, Vladimir Gligorov, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner and Olga Pindyuk
wiiw Monthly Report No. 11, November 2013
38 pages including 17 Tables Details