Russia

Assuming that the sanctions and oil prices remain at their current levels, the wiiw baseline scenario sticks to its earlier forecast of a close to 4% drop in GDP in 2015, followed in 2016-2017 by a weak recovery resulting from a gradual revival in government-sponsored investment and the launch of import substitution programmes.

map Russia
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201220132014201520162017
Population, 1000 persons.143202143507146091...
GDP, real change in %3.41.30.6-3.81.82.0
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)184001880018500...
Gross industrial production, real change in %3.40.41.7...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average5.55.55.25.35.35.3
Average gross monthly wages, EUR667705644...
Consumer prices, % p.a.5.16.87.815.010.08.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP0.4-1.3-1.2...
Public debt in % of GDP10.010.511.8...
Current account in % of GDP3.61.73.13.11.81.8
FDI inflow, EUR mn393535210717199...
Gross external debt in % of GDP30.933.934.8...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2015

Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2015
25 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures

Details

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RUSSIAN FEDERATION: From stagnation to recession and back

Peter Havlik
in: A Time of Moderate Expectations
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2015, March 2015 , pp. 117-121
Details and Buy


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