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Russia was in the direst straits even before the Ukraine crisis. Sanctions have deterred investments still further, instigated capital flight and boosted inflation. The slump in oil prices and the related collapse of the rouble have inflicted additional pain. Assuming that the sanctions and oil prices remain at their current levels, the baseline scenario reckons with a 4% drop in GDP in 2015, followed by weak recovery resulting from a gradual revival in government-sponsored investment.
|Main Economic Indicators||2012||2013||2014||2015||2016||2017|
|Population, 1000 persons.||143202||143507||144000||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||3.4||1.3||0.6||-3.9||1.9||2.0|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||18400||18800||18700||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||3.4||0.4||1.7||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||5.5||5.5||5.2||5.3||5.3||5.3|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||667||709||647||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||5.1||6.8||7.8||11.0||8.0||6.0|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||0.4||-1.3||-1.2||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||10.0||10.5||11.8||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||3.6||1.7||3.2||3.1||3.2||3.1|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||39353||52107||15770||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||30.9||33.9||35.0||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 4/2015
Amat Adarov, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya and Michael Landesmann
wiiw Monthly Report No. 4, April 2015
45 pages including 2 Tables and 29 Figures Details
RUSSIAN FEDERATION: From stagnation to recession and back
in: A Time of Moderate Expectations
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2015, March 2015 , pp. 117-121 Details and Buy