The Russian economy plunged into a full-blown recession in 2015. Both exports and (even more so) imports were slashed, while the current account surplus surged upwards. The recession may have already bottomed out by mid-2015, yet there is no consensus as to the country’s future prospects. Depending on the oil price, Russia may face another mild GDP decline in 2016, although stabilisation or even a modest growth seems more likely. Nevertheless, growth will remain unimpressive even in the medium term since restructuring will not materialise.

map Russia
Main Economic Indicators201320142015201620172018
Population, 1000 persons.143507146091146394...
GDP, real change in %1.30.8-
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)189001940020400...
Gross industrial production, real change in %0.41.7-3.4...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average5.
Average gross monthly wages, EUR705640501...
Consumer prices, % p.a.6.87.815.58.06.0.
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-1.2-1.1-3.0...
Public debt in % of GDP9.810.815.0...
Current account in % of GDP1.
FDI inflow, EUR mn52107173041500...
Gross external debt in % of GDP31.632.137.3...

Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.


Monthly Report No. 12/2015

Amat Adarov, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Leon Podkaminer and Roman Römisch
wiiw Monthly Report No. 12,
50 pages including 18 Figures



RUSSIAN FEDERATION: Recession already over?

Peter Havlik
in: Mixed Prospects: Consumption Leads Fragile Recovery in the CESEE Core – CIS Stumbles
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2015, , pp. 113-117
Details and Buy