The Russian economy plunged into a full-blown recession in 2015. Both exports and (even more so) imports were slashed, while the current account surplus surged upwards. The recession may have already bottomed out by mid-2015, yet there is no consensus as to the country’s future prospects. Depending on the oil price, Russia may face another mild GDP decline in 2016, although stabilisation or even a modest growth seems more likely. Nevertheless, growth will remain unimpressive even in the medium term since restructuring will not materialise.
|Main Economic Indicators||2013||2014||2015||2016||2017||2018|
|Population, 1000 persons.||143507||146091||146394||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||1.3||0.8||-3.7||1.0||1.4||.|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||18900||19400||20400||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||0.4||1.7||-3.4||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||5.5||5.2||5.5||5.3||5.3||.|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||705||640||501||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||6.8||7.8||15.5||8.0||6.0||.|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-1.2||-1.1||-3.0||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||9.8||10.8||15.0||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||1.6||2.9||4.7||5.9||5.0||.|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||52107||17304||1500||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||31.6||32.1||37.3||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 12/2015
Amat Adarov, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Leon Podkaminer and Roman Römisch
wiiw Monthly Report No. 12, December 2015
50 pages including 18 Figures
RUSSIAN FEDERATION: Recession already over?
in: Mixed Prospects: Consumption Leads Fragile Recovery in the CESEE Core – CIS Stumbles
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2015, November 2015 , pp. 113-117 Details and Buy