The severe political crisis and the suspension of Russian credits have put the currency under strong downward pressure. The near-term economic prospects are hardly encouraging, with a balance-of-payments crisis and a bank run looming on the horizon. A ‘rescue package’ from the IMF is urgently needed to prevent this scenario. However, the ‘austerity’ conditionalities, which will likely be attached to such a package, will almost certainly push the economy into recession this year.

map Ukraine
Main Economic Indicators201120122013201420152016
Population, 1000 persons.457064559345490...
GDP, real change in %
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)660068007000...
Gross industrial production, real change in %8.0-0.5-4.3...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average7.
Average gross monthly wages, EUR237295308...
Consumer prices, % p.a.8.00.6-
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-1.7-3.5-4.2...
Public debt in % of GDP35.135.438.8...
Current account in % of GDP-6.0-7.9-8.7-6.1-6.1-6.0
FDI inflow, EUR mn517760942840...
Gross external debt in % of GDP80.572.172.8...

Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.


UKRAINE: Teetering on the brink

Vasily Astrov
in: Investment to the Rescue
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2014, March 2014 , pp. 105-107
Details and Buy


Monthly Report No. 3/2014

Vasily Astrov, Neil Foster-McGregor, Sandra M. Leitner, Robert Stehrer and Roman Stöllinger
wiiw Monthly Report No. 3, March 2014
28 pages including 13 Tables and 7 Figures