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The severe political crisis and the suspension of Russian credits have put the currency under strong downward pressure. The near-term economic prospects are hardly encouraging, with a balance-of-payments crisis and a bank run looming on the horizon. A ‘rescue package’ from the IMF is urgently needed to prevent this scenario. However, the ‘austerity’ conditionalities, which will likely be attached to such a package, will almost certainly push the economy into recession this year.
|Main Economic Indicators||2011||2012||2013||2014||2015||2016|
|Population, 1000 persons.||45706||45593||45490||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||5.4||0.2||0.0||-3.5||0.9||1.8|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||6600||6800||7000||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||8.0||-0.5||-4.3||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||7.9||7.5||7.2||7.8||7.8||7.5|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||237||295||308||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||8.0||0.6||-0.3||5.2||6.5||4.5|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-1.7||-3.5||-4.2||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||35.1||35.4||38.8||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-6.0||-7.9||-8.7||-6.1||-6.1||-6.0|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||5177||6094||2840||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||80.5||72.1||72.8||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
UKRAINE: Teetering on the brink
in: Investment to the Rescue
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2014, March 2014 , pp. 105-107 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 3/2014
Vasily Astrov, Neil Foster-McGregor, Sandra M. Leitner, Robert Stehrer and Roman Stöllinger
wiiw Monthly Report No. 3, March 2014
28 pages including 13 Tables and 7 Figures Details