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The massive currency depreciation over the previous months and energy tariff hikes have led to an unprecedented spike in inflation, which is weighing heavily on private consumption. Investments and exports continue to be badly affected by the conflict in Donbas, whose peaceful resolution is not in sight anytime soon. This year, Ukraine is likely to face the prospect of a 10% economic recession and a default on its privately held external sovereign debt.
|Main Economic Indicators||2012||2013||2014||2015||2016||2017|
|Population, 1000 persons.||45593||45490||43001||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||0.2||0.0||-6.8||-10.5||0.0||1.8|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||6700||6700||6500||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||-0.5||-4.3||-10.1||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||7.5||7.2||9.3||11.5||12.0||12.0|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||295||308||221||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||0.6||-0.3||12.1||49.5||18.0||11.0|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-3.5||-4.2||-4.6||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||35.3||38.8||70.2||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-7.9||-8.8||-4.0||-1.3||-0.6||-0.6|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||6360||3396||641||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||71.9||72.5||103.9||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2015
Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2015
25 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures
UKRAINE: From illiquidity to insolvency
in: A Time of Moderate Expectations
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2015, March 2015 , pp. 123-126 Details and Buy