Barring a resumption of large-scale fighting in Donbas, the economic decline has now most probably bottomed out. However, given the depressed domestic demand and the new restrictions on trade with Russia, which will not be offset by the newly established ‘deep and comprehensive free trade’ area with the EU, we forecast zero growth for the current year, followed by gradual acceleration to around 2% over the period 2017-2018.
|Main Economic Indicators||2013||2014||2015||2016||2017||2018|
|Population, 1000 persons.||45490||43001||42845||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||0.0||-6.6||-9.9||0.0||1.9||2.5|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||6600||6500||6000||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||-4.3||-10.1||-13.0||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||7.2||9.3||9.1||11.0||11.0||10.0|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||308||221||173||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||-0.3||12.1||48.7||17.0||8.0||6.0|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-4.2||-4.5||-1.6||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||38.8||69.4||79.4||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-8.8||-3.4||-0.2||-0.1||-0.1||-0.9|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||3396||641||2750||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||72.5||102.6||133.0||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
UKRAINE: A ‘deep free trade’ EU partner
in: Growth Stabilises: Investment a Major Driver, Except in Countries Plagued by Recession
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2016, March 2016 , pp. 134-138 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2015
Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2015
25 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures