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In 2015, the ongoing military conflict, the erosion of incomes by galloping inflation and the collapse of trade and investment will plunge the economy into deep recession for the second year running. Dismal growth prospects, an ever-weakening currency and massive fiscal deficits on the back of defence expenditures will put the sustainability of public debt in jeopardy. A recovery can hardly be expected before 2017, the all-essential pre-requirement being a lasting peace settlement.
|Main Economic Indicators||2012||2013||2014||2015||2016||2017|
|Population, 1000 persons.||45593||45490||43001||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||0.2||0.0||-6.8||-5.0||0.0||1.8|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||6700||6700||6500||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||-0.5||-4.3||-10.1||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||7.5||7.2||9.3||11.0||12.0||12.0|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||295||308||221||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||0.6||-0.3||12.1||24.0||9.0||6.0|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-3.5||-4.2||-4.6||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||35.3||38.8||70.2||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-7.9||-8.8||-4.0||-1.9||-1.8||-1.7|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||6360||3396||641||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||71.9||72.5||103.9||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 4/2015
Amat Adarov, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya and Michael Landesmann
wiiw Monthly Report No. 4, April 2015
45 pages including 2 Tables and 29 Figures
UKRAINE: From illiquidity to insolvency
in: A Time of Moderate Expectations
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2015, March 2015 , pp. 123-126 Details and Buy