Ukraine

The massive currency depreciation over the previous months and energy tariff hikes have led to an unprecedented spike in inflation, which is weighing heavily on private consumption. Investments and exports continue to be badly affected by the conflict in Donbas, whose peaceful resolution is not in sight anytime soon. This year, Ukraine is likely to face the prospect of a 10% economic recession and a default on its privately held external sovereign debt.

map Ukraine
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201220132014201520162017
Population, 1000 persons.455934549043001...
GDP, real change in %0.20.0-6.8-10.50.01.8
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)670067006500...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-0.5-4.3-10.1...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average7.57.29.311.512.012.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR295308221...
Consumer prices, % p.a.0.6-0.312.149.518.011.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-3.5-4.2-4.6...
Public debt in % of GDP35.338.870.2...
Current account in % of GDP-7.9-8.8-4.0-1.3-0.6-0.6
FDI inflow, EUR mn63603396641...
Gross external debt in % of GDP71.972.5103.9...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2015

Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2015
25 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures

Details

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UKRAINE: From illiquidity to insolvency

Vasily Astrov
in: A Time of Moderate Expectations
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2015, March 2015 , pp. 123-126
Details and Buy


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