After three quarters of deep recession, the recent months suggest a gradual bottoming out of the economy, albeit at a very low level. Fiscal austerity and high inflation continue to weigh heavily on domestic demand, while exports have so far not been able to take full advantage of the competitive exchange rate. The recent sovereign debt restructuring should provide only a minor relief to the budget and will not prevent the public debt to GDP ratio from rising further.

map Ukraine
Main Economic Indicators201320142015201620172018
Population, 1000 persons.454904300142845...
GDP, real change in %0.0-6.8-
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)68006600....
Gross industrial production, real change in %-4.3-10.1-13.4...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average7.29.310.011.011.0.
Average gross monthly wages, EUR308221173...
Consumer prices, % p.a.-0.312.148.717.08.0.
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-4.2-4.6-1.7...
Public debt in % of GDP38.870.385.4...
Current account in % of GDP-8.8-3.5-0.2-0.8-0.9.
FDI inflow, EUR mn33966412854...
Gross external debt in % of GDP72.5103.9151.4...

Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.


UKRAINE: Bottoming out

Vasily Astrov
in: Mixed Prospects: Consumption Leads Fragile Recovery in the CESEE Core – CIS Stumbles
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2015, , pp. 134-138
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2015

Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8,
25 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures