Ukraine

In 2015, the ongoing military conflict, the erosion of incomes by galloping inflation and the collapse of trade and investment will plunge the economy into deep recession for the second year running. Dismal growth prospects, an ever-weakening currency and massive fiscal deficits on the back of defence expenditures will put the sustainability of public debt in jeopardy. A recovery can hardly be expected before 2017, the all-essential pre-requirement being a lasting peace settlement.

map Ukraine
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201220132014201520162017
Population, 1000 persons.455934549043001...
GDP, real change in %0.20.0-6.8-5.00.01.8
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)670067006500...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-0.5-4.3-10.1...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average7.57.29.311.012.012.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR295308221...
Consumer prices, % p.a.0.6-0.312.124.09.06.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-3.5-4.2-4.6...
Public debt in % of GDP35.338.870.2...
Current account in % of GDP-7.9-8.8-4.0-1.9-1.8-1.7
FDI inflow, EUR mn63603396641...
Gross external debt in % of GDP71.972.5103.9...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 3/2015

Amat Adarov, Vasily Astrov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Sandra M. Leitner and Robert Stehrer
wiiw Monthly Report No. 3, March 2015
41 pages including 2 Tables and 26 Figures
Details

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UKRAINE: From illiquidity to insolvency

Vasily Astrov
in: A Time of Moderate Expectations
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2015, March 2015 , pp. 123-126
Details and Buy


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