In Ukraine, the ongoing military conflict in Donbass, curtailed trade relations with Russia and weakening private consumption are pushing the economy ever deeper into recession. Although the collapse in domestic demand combined with currency depreciation has brought about a marked rebalancing towards net exports, the balance-of-payments pressure remains strong owing to the current capital flight. Under the prevailing circumstances, were the GDP to stagnate next year, it could well be seen as a major achievement. That, however, hinges crucially on the prospects for a lasting peace settlement in Donbass, as well as a revival of trade with Russia.

map Ukraine
Main Economic Indicators201220132014201520162017
Population, 1000 persons.455934549043001...
GDP, real change in %0.20.0-7.0-1.11.8.
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)670067006400...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-0.5-4.3-10.7...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average7.
Average gross monthly wages, EUR295308221...
Consumer prices, % p.a.0.6-0.312.19.74.5.
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-3.5-4.2-4.8...
Public debt in % of GDP35.338.872.8...
Current account in % of GDP-7.9-8.8-4.2-3.2-3.7.
FDI inflow, EUR mn63603396664...
Gross external debt in % of GDP71.972.5108.2...

Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
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UKRAINE: Military spending offsets IMF-imposed austerity

Vasily Astrov
in: On Thin Ice: CESEE Core Resilient in the Face of EU Stagnation and the Ukraine Crisis
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2014, November 2014 , pp. 121-125
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Monthly Report No. 10/2014

Vasily Astrov, Vladimir Gligorov, Julia Grübler, Peter Havlik, Michael Landesmann, Sandra M. Leitner, Olga Pindyuk, Marek Rojicek and Roman Stöllinger
wiiw Monthly Report No. 10, October 2014
44 pages including 21 Tables and 5 Figures