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The Turkish economy performed reasonably well in the first half of 2014 despite the turmoil in the wake of the FED announcing a tapering of its monetary policy. Given both the continuing acceleration in internal demand sparked by the ‘dovish’ policy stance adopted by the Central Bank to the political pressure and expansionary fiscal policy caused by the elections and the rebalancing of external demand following the depreciation of the Turkish lira, the economy is expected to grow by 3.7% in 2014. Further credit growth will be difficult to forge. Given that constraint and the tensions on Turkey’s southern borders, we expect economic growth to decelerate to 2.7% and 2.8% in 2015 and 2016, respectively.
|Main Economic Indicators||2011||2012||2013||2014||2015||2016|
|Population, 1000 persons.||74224||75176||76148||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||8.8||2.1||4.1||3.7||2.7||2.8|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||13300||13700||14100||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||10.0||2.4||3.0||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||9.8||9.2||9.7||9.2||9.5||9.1|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||.||.||.||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||6.5||9.0||7.5||8.9||7.4||6.1|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-0.8||-2.4||-1.7||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||39.9||36.2||34.6||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-9.7||-6.0||-7.9||-6.0||-5.9||-6.2|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||11581||9708||9554||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||42.3||41.8||45.6||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
TURKEY: In the shade of the government’s growth targets
in: On Thin Ice: CESEE Core Resilient in the Face of EU Stagnation and the Ukraine Crisis
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2014, November 2014 , pp. 97-100 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 9/2014
Serkan Çiçek, Vladimir Gligorov, Michael Landesmann, Roman Römisch and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 9, September 2014
39 pages including 2 Tables, 27 Figures and 3 Maps Details