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Turkey is on a new path of lower growth, at around 3-4%, due to a novel policy mix that aims to restrict the current account deficit. In 2014 the growth rate was 2.9%, thanks to the continuing rise in foreign demand and with the help of government transfers. In 2015, we expect GDP to expand by 2.8% owing to the ongoing depreciation of the lira, government-led infrastructure projects and rising social transfers. Growth should even improve thereafter on account of likely cuts in the policy rate.
|Main Economic Indicators||2012||2013||2014||2015||2016||2017|
|Population, 1000 persons.||75176||76148||77182||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||2.1||4.2||2.9||2.8||3.1||3.1|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||13700||14100||14400||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||2.5||3.0||3.6||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||9.2||9.7||9.9||10.5||10.0||9.5|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||.||.||.||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||9.0||7.5||8.9||7.5||6.8||6.2|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-1.0||-0.7||-0.8||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||36.2||36.1||33.5||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-6.1||-7.9||-5.8||-5.5||-5.2||-5.2|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||10304||9351||9438||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||42.0||45.6||55.1||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2015
Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2015
25 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures
TURKEY: On a government-supported steady-state growth path
in: A Time of Moderate Expectations
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2015, March 2015 , pp. 99-101 Details and Buy