Owing to both a 30% net rise in minimum wages and the current generous government spending, we expect GDP to expand by 3.2% in 2016. As for 2017 and 2018, we expect GDP to grow by 3.1% and 3.0%, respectively, owing to the recovery of foreign demand following a steady depreciation process and positive but lower growth rates of consumer loans, ultimately leading to a firm monetary policy stance.
|Main Economic Indicators||2013||2014||2015||2016||2017||2018|
|Population, 1000 persons.||76148||77182||78500||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||4.2||3.0||4.0||3.2||3.1||3.0|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||14100||14500||15200||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||3.0||3.6||3.2||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||9.7||9.9||10.6||10.3||10.2||10.1|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||.||.||.||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||7.5||8.9||7.7||8.2||7.4||6.8|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-1.5||-0.9||-1.6||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||36.1||33.5||35.0||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-7.8||-5.5||-4.5||-5.2||-5.0||-5.0|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||9297||9430||15086||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||45.7||55.1||56.6||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
TURKEY: Strong domestic demand offsets external sector weakness
in: Growth Stabilises: Investment a Major Driver, Except in Countries Plagued by Recession
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2016, March 2016 , pp. 129-133 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 9/2015
Amat Adarov, Fatos Hoxha, Werner Laventure and Isilda Mara
wiiw Monthly Report No. 9, September 2015
47 pages including 3 Tables and 33 Figures