Economic growth has accelerated in the first half of 2015, driven by a hike in final consumption expenditures and an increase in private investment despite the current political uncertainties. However, the parity between dollar and euro and weak global growth led to the contribution of exports to Turkish GDP growth turning slightly negative. Overall, we expect GDP growth of around 3% for 2015 and the years to come.
|Main Economic Indicators||2013||2014||2015||2016||2017||2018|
|Population, 1000 persons.||76148||77182||78500||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||4.2||2.9||3.3||3.1||3.1||.|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||14000||14300||.||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||3.0||3.6||3.3||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||9.7||9.9||10.6||10.2||9.8||.|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||.||.||.||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||7.5||8.9||7.7||6.9||6.2||.|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-1.5||-0.9||-1.6||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||36.1||33.5||35.0||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-7.9||-5.9||-5.6||-5.2||-5.0||.|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||9359||9474||12000||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||45.6||55.1||56.9||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
TURKEY: Shifting from external to internal demand
in: Mixed Prospects: Consumption Leads Fragile Recovery in the CESEE Core – CIS Stumbles
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2015, November 2015 , pp. 129-133 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 9/2015
Amat Adarov, Fatos Hoxha, Werner Laventure and Isilda Mara
wiiw Monthly Report No. 9, September 2015
47 pages including 3 Tables and 33 Figures