Turkey

Turkey is on a new path of lower growth, at around 3-4%, due to a novel policy mix that aims to restrict the current account deficit. In 2014 the growth rate was 2.9%, thanks to the continuing rise in foreign demand and with the help of government transfers. In 2015, we expect GDP to expand by 2.8% owing to the ongoing depreciation of the lira, government-led infrastructure projects and rising social transfers. Growth should even improve thereafter on account of likely cuts in the policy rate.

map Turkey
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201220132014201520162017
Population, 1000 persons.751767614877700...
GDP, real change in %2.14.22.92.83.13.1
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)137001410014400...
Gross industrial production, real change in %2.53.03.6...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average9.29.79.910.510.09.5
Average gross monthly wages, EUR......
Consumer prices, % p.a.9.07.58.97.56.86.2
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-1.0-0.7-0.8...
Public debt in % of GDP36.236.133.5...
Current account in % of GDP-6.1-7.9-5.8-5.5-5.2-5.2
FDI inflow, EUR mn1030493519435...
Gross external debt in % of GDP42.045.655.1...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2015

Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2015
25 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures

Details

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TURKEY: On a government-supported steady-state growth path

Serkan Çiçek
in: A Time of Moderate Expectations
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2015, March 2015 , pp. 99-101
Details and Buy


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