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The current forecast revises our March GDP growth outlook for the year 2014 upward, from 2.2% to 2.9%, on account of strong export growth and a softened stance by the Turkish Central Bank, improving domestic demand. If no major external shocks intervene – such as another negative impact of further ‘tapering’ by the Fed on EMEs or a shock to energy prices in the light of the Russia-Ukraine crisis – and given EU growth prospects, then recovery will gain momentum in 2015 (3.5%) and 2016 (4.5%).
|Main Economic Indicators||2011||2012||2013||2014||2015||2016|
|Population, 1000 persons.||74224||75176||76148||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||8.8||2.1||4.1||2.9||3.5||4.5|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||13300||13700||14100||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||10.0||2.4||3.0||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||8.8||8.2||8.5||9.0||9.0||8.5|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||.||.||.||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||6.5||9.0||7.5||8.3||7.5||6.8|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-0.8||-2.4||-1.7||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||39.9||36.2||34.6||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-9.7||-6.0||-7.9||-4.5||-5.5||-6.5|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||11581||9708||9554||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||42.4||42.0||44.9||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 9/2014
Serkan Çiçek, Vladimir Gligorov, Michael Landesmann, Roman Römisch and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 9, September 2014
39 pages including 2 Tables, 27 Figures and 3 Maps Details
TURKEY: ‘Blowing in the wind’ of international capital flows
in: Investment to the Rescue
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2014, March 2014 , pp. 83-87 Details and Buy