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Thus far in 2013 Turkey has been recovering from the dramatic growth slowdown in 2012. The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) had induced that slowdown by shifting perceptibly towards tight monetary policy. Any recovery since then has been associated with a certain loosening of that stance, but the bank is still using tools designed to control credit growth. Apart from the above, the CBRT has had to undertake attempts to discourage too strong an inflow of capital (short-term in nature) by reducing interest rates. Recent political developments, as well as the announcement of possible shifts in the US Fed's policy with respect to quantitative easing, have added an additional element of uncertainty regarding the nature of possible instabilities (e.g. leading to capital outflows rather than inflows) and the country’s policy response to the same. Those uncertainties notwithstanding, Turkey is expected to grow at 3.5% in 2013 and 4.5% in 2014.
|Main Economic Indicators||2010||2011||2012||2013||2014||2015|
|Population, 1000 persons.||73003||73950||74885||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||9.0||8.8||2.2||3.4||4.5||5.0|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||12200||13100||13300||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||12.8||10.0||2.4||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||10.7||8.8||8.2||9.2||9.0||8.8|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||.||.||.||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||8.6||6.5||9.0||6.6||6.0||6.0|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-2.7||-1.9||-2.3||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||42.4||39.2||36.8||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-6.2||-9.7||-5.9||-7.3||-7.5||-7.7|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||6803||11581||9632||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||39.7||42.4||41.7||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Turkey: Policy challenges of a European emerging economy
in: Animal Spirits still Dimmed: Slow Recovery Expected
wiiw Current Analyses and Forecasts No. 12, July 2013 , pp. 115-117 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 7/2012
Leath Al Obaidi, Mario Holzner, Sandra Leitner, Roman Römisch and Robert Stehrer
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7, July 2012
30 pages including 11 Tables and 14 Figures Details