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Turkey is in the thrall of a renewed emerging markets volatility; in fact it is one of the two economies most strongly affected by it (the other one being Argentina). wiiw expects the recent vigorous response by the Turkish Central Bank, which increased interest rates to reduce the 2014 growth rate of GDP to 2.2% and then a gradual return to the longer-run potential growth path of 4.5% by 2016. The significant devaluation will improve the current account balance but impact negatively on inflation.
|Main Economic Indicators||2011||2012||2013||2014||2015||2016|
|Population, 1000 persons.||73950||74954||75860||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||8.8||2.2||3.8||2.2||3.5||4.5|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||13400||13700||14300||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||10.0||2.4||2.5||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||8.8||8.2||8.5||9.0||9.0||8.5|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||.||.||.||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||6.5||9.0||7.5||6.0||6.5||6.8|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-0.8||-2.4||-1.7||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||39.9||36.2||34.6||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-9.7||-6.2||-7.9||-3.5||-5.5||-6.5|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||11581||10290||9550||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||42.4||42.0||44.9||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
TURKEY: ‘Blowing in the wind’ of international capital flows
in: Investment to the Rescue
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2014, March 2014 , pp. 83-87 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 7/2012
Leath Al Obaidi, Mario Holzner, Sandra Leitner, Roman Römisch and Robert Stehrer
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7, July 2012
30 pages including 11 Tables and 14 Figures Details