The current forecast revises our March GDP growth outlook for the year 2014 upward, from 2.2% to 2.9%, on account of strong export growth and a softened stance by the Turkish Central Bank, improving domestic demand. If no major external shocks intervene – such as another negative impact of further ‘tapering’ by the Fed on EMEs or a shock to energy prices in the light of the Russia-Ukraine crisis – and given EU growth prospects, then recovery will gain momentum in 2015 (3.5%) and 2016 (4.5%).

map Turkey
Main Economic Indicators201120122013201420152016
Population, 1000 persons.742247517676148...
GDP, real change in %
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)133001370014100...
Gross industrial production, real change in %
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average8.
Average gross monthly wages, EUR......
Consumer prices, % p.a.
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-0.8-2.4-1.7...
Public debt in % of GDP39.936.234.6...
Current account in % of GDP-9.7-6.0-7.9-4.5-5.5-6.5
FDI inflow, EUR mn1158197089554...
Gross external debt in % of GDP42.442.044.9...

Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.


Monthly Report No. 9/2014

Serkan Çiçek, Vladimir Gligorov, Michael Landesmann, Roman Römisch and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 9, September 2014
39 pages including 2 Tables, 27 Figures and 3 Maps


TURKEY: ‘Blowing in the wind’ of international capital flows

Michael Landesmann
in: Investment to the Rescue
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2014, March 2014 , pp. 83-87
Details and Buy