Turkey

Owing to both a 30% net rise in minimum wages and the current generous government spending, we expect GDP to expand by 3.2% in 2016. As for 2017 and 2018, we expect GDP to grow by 3.1% and 3.0%, respectively, owing to the recovery of foreign demand following a steady depreciation process and positive but lower growth rates of consumer loans, ultimately leading to a firm monetary policy stance.

map Turkey
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201320142015201620172018
Population, 1000 persons.761487718278500...
GDP, real change in %4.23.04.04.13.73.5
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)141001450015200...
Gross industrial production, real change in %3.03.63.2...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average9.79.910.310.210.110.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR......
Consumer prices, % p.a.7.58.97.78.27.46.8
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-1.5-0.9-1.6...
Public debt in % of GDP36.133.535.0...
Current account in % of GDP-7.8-5.5-4.5-4.7-4.9-5.0
FDI inflow, EUR mn9297943015151...
Gross external debt in % of GDP45.755.156.6...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2016

Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Simona Jokubauskaite, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8,
25 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure

Details

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TURKEY: Strong domestic demand offsets external sector weakness

Serkan Çiçek
in: Growth Stabilises: Investment a Major Driver, Except in Countries Plagued by Recession
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2016, , pp. 129-133
Details and Buy


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