Dragged down by dwindling external demand in the neighbouring countries to the east and the current decline in investments, the Estonian GDP will grow by 1.9% in 2015. Household consumption remains the strongest driver of economic activity. Over the next two years we expect a recovery in trade with countries to the west, while the decline in exports to Russia should come to a halt. Moreover, an upswing, particularly in public investments, should boost GDP growth to 2.6% and 2.8% in 2016 and 2017, respectively.
|Main Economic Indicators||2013||2014||2015||2016||2017||2018|
|Population, 1000 persons.||1318||1315||1312||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||1.6||2.9||1.3||2.6||2.8||.|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||20000||20900||21800||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||4.1||1.9||-2.0||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||8.6||7.4||6.0||6.1||5.8||.|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||949||1005||1060||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||3.2||0.5||0.1||1.8||2.1||.|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-0.1||0.7||0.5||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||9.9||10.4||10.1||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-0.1||1.0||2.0||-0.2||-1.8||.|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||664||1172||-100||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||91.8||94.7||93.1||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
ESTONIA: Consumption growth remains robust
in: Mixed Prospects: Consumption Leads Fragile Recovery in the CESEE Core – CIS Stumbles
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2015, November 2015 , pp. 77-79 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2015
Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2015
25 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures