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For 2015 our GDP growth forecast for Latvia remains almost unchanged at 2.3%. As expected, the slump in Russian demand has been counterbalanced by growth in exports to EU and Asian markets. While household consumption develops at good pace, investment activity remains stagnant. For both 2016 and 2017 we expect an upswing of GDP growth to 2.8% driven by stronger external demand and investment activity of both the public and private sector.
|Main Economic Indicators||2012||2013||2014||2015||2016||2017|
|Population, 1000 persons.||2034||2013||2005||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||4.8||4.2||2.4||2.3||2.8||2.8|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||16300||17200||17900||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||6.2||-0.9||-1.1||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||15.0||11.9||10.8||9.8||9.2||8.8|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||690||717||765||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||2.3||0.0||0.7||0.5||1.9||2.5|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-0.8||-0.7||-1.4||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||40.9||38.2||40.0||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-3.2||-2.3||-3.1||-0.8||-1.2||-1.8|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||840||743||596||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||136.2||131.1||138.6||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2015
Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2015
25 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures
LATVIA: Headwind from the east
in: A Time of Moderate Expectations
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2015, March 2015 , pp. 67-68 Details and Buy