We have reduced our GDP growth forecast for 2016 to 2.4%. Private investment activity has become increasingly sluggish and public capital expenditure has been cut by a third as expected. Exports remain stagnant but household consumption has developed at a smart pace, driven by rapidly rising real wages. In both 2017 and 2018 we expect an upswing in GDP growth to 2.6% and 2.9%, respectively, driven by stronger external demand and greater investment activity in both the public and private sectors.
|Main Economic Indicators||2013||2014||2015||2016||2017||2018|
|Population, 1000 persons.||2013||1994||1978||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||2.9||2.1||2.7||2.4||2.6||2.9|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||16600||17500||18600||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||-0.9||-1.0||3.6||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||11.9||10.8||9.9||9.8||9.2||8.8|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||717||765||818||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||0.0||0.7||0.2||0.0||1.8||2.1|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-0.9||-1.6||-1.3||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||39.0||40.7||36.3||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-2.7||-2.0||-0.8||-0.4||-1.9||-2.2|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||743||813||684||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||133.7||143.1||141.7||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
LATVIA: EU funds to rekindle investment ahead
in: Labour Shortages Driving Economic Growth?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2016, November 2016 , pp. 80-82 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2016
Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Simona Jokubauskaite, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2016
25 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure