For 2015, our GDP growth forecast for Latvia remains almost unchanged at 2.4%. As expected, the slump in Russian demand has been offset by growth in exports to the EU and Asian markets. While household consumption is developing at a good pace, investment activity remains stagnant. In both 2016 and 2017 we expect an upswing in GDP growth to 3%, driven by stronger external demand and investment activity in both the public and private sectors.
|Main Economic Indicators||2012||2013||2014||2015||2016||2017|
|Population, 1000 persons.||2034||2013||1994||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||4.0||3.0||2.4||2.4||3.0||3.0|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||15800||16600||17200||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||6.2||-0.9||-1.1||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||15.0||11.9||10.8||9.9||9.3||8.9|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||690||717||765||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||2.3||0.0||0.7||0.4||1.8||2.1|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-0.8||-0.9||-1.6||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||41.4||39.1||40.8||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-3.3||-2.4||-2.0||-2.0||-3.5||-3.7|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||840||743||661||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||137.6||133.7||142.2||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
LATVIA: Growing below potential
in: Mixed Prospects: Consumption Leads Fragile Recovery in the CESEE Core – CIS Stumbles
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2015, November 2015 , pp. 91-93 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2015
Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2015
25 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures