Throughout 2015, growth of the Lithuanian economy has been dampened by a slump in external demand in the CIS countries and the lower demand for oil products. Only part of the shortfall can be offset by exports to the EU and Asian markets or growth in other product categories. Consumer demand has developed apace and investment activity is flourishing. We forecast a reasonable GDP growth rate of 2% for 2015 and an upswing to 3% and 3.4% for 2016 and 2017, respectively.
|Main Economic Indicators||2012||2013||2014||2015||2016||2017|
|Population, 1000 persons.||2988||2958||2932||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||3.8||3.5||3.0||1.6||3.0||3.4|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||18300||19400||20200||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||3.7||3.3||-0.1||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||13.4||11.8||10.7||9.5||8.5||8.0|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||615||646||677||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||3.2||1.2||0.2||-0.6||2.0||2.5|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-3.2||-2.6||-0.7||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||39.8||38.8||40.7||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-1.2||1.5||3.6||-4.1||-4.6||-4.9|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||454||531||270||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||78.1||70.4||70.6||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
LITHUANIA: Economic ties are changing
in: Mixed Prospects: Consumption Leads Fragile Recovery in the CESEE Core – CIS Stumbles
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2015, November 2015 , pp. 94-97 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2015
Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2015
25 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures