Driven by a combination of positive domestic and external factors, GDP growth in 2015 outperformed expectations. The economy, however, is mired in chronic structural problems that policy-makers have systematically neglected. While GDP is expected to continue growing at a rate of 2-3% per annum over the short term, the absence of policy reforms may lead to an accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances.
|Main Economic Indicators||2013||2014||2015||2016||2017||2018|
|Population, 1000 persons.||7265||7224||7178||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||1.3||1.5||3.0||2.5||2.5||2.7|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||12200||12800||13500||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||-0.1||1.8||2.9||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||13.0||11.4||9.4||9.0||8.5||8.0|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||396||420||457||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||0.4||-1.6||-1.1||1.0||1.0||1.5|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-0.8||-5.8||-2.5||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||18.0||27.0||29.4||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||1.3||0.9||1.4||0.7||0.0||-0.4|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||1509||1535||1580||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||88.1||92.1||77.3||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
BULGARIA: Growth in 2015 exceeds expectations, but can it be sustained?
in: Growth Stabilises: Investment a Major Driver, Except in Countries Plagued by Recession
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2016, March 2016 , pp. 63-66 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 9/2015
Amat Adarov, Fatos Hoxha, Werner Laventure and Isilda Mara
wiiw Monthly Report No. 9, September 2015
47 pages including 3 Tables and 33 Figures