Driven by a combination of positive domestic and external factors, GDP growth in 2015 outperformed expectations. The economy, however, is mired in chronic structural problems that policy-makers have systematically neglected. While GDP is expected to continue growing at a rate of 2-3% per annum over the short term, the absence of policy reforms may lead to an accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances.
|Main Economic Indicators||2013||2014||2015||2016||2017||2018|
|Population, 1000 persons.||7265||7224||7178||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||1.3||1.5||3.0||2.9||3.0||3.1|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||12200||12800||13300||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||-0.2||1.8||2.9||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||13.0||11.4||9.2||8.5||8.0||7.5|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||396||420||457||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||0.4||-1.6||-1.1||0.0||0.5||1.0|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-0.4||-5.5||-2.1||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||17.1||27.0||26.7||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||1.3||0.9||1.4||1.5||1.3||0.8|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||1509||1535||1580||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||88.1||92.1||77.2||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2016
Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Simona Jokubauskaite, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2016
25 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure
BULGARIA: Growth in 2015 exceeds expectations, but can it be sustained?
in: Growth Stabilises: Investment a Major Driver, Except in Countries Plagued by Recession
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2016, March 2016 , pp. 63-66 Details and Buy