With stability assured, the adjustment process in Montenegro now needs to deal with external imbalances. This means that consumption will have to grow slowly, if at all. Everything thus hinges on: (i) investment growth, which is quite sensitive to security and stability risks; and (ii) tourism, which has performed rather well to date. Bearing that in mind, we can expect a growth rate of around 3% being maintained over the medium term.
|Main Economic Indicators||2013||2014||2015||2016||2017||2018|
|Population, 1000 persons.||621||622||625||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||3.5||1.8||3.4||2.6||2.8||.|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||10800||10800||.||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||10.6||-11.4||8.2||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||19.5||18.0||18.0||17.5||17.0||.|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||726||723||725||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||1.8||-0.5||1.4||2.0||2.0||.|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-3.7||-3.0||-5.0||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||55.7||56.2||60.0||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-14.5||-15.2||-14.6||-15.0||-15.0||.|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||337||375||390||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||42.6||45.2||50.0||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
MONTENEGRO: Legitimacy crisis ahead of NATO accession
in: Mixed Prospects: Consumption Leads Fragile Recovery in the CESEE Core – CIS Stumbles
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2015, November 2015 , pp. 101-104 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2015
Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2015
25 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures