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The foreign trade performance prevents the current Czech recession from assuming dismal proportions. Given this fact it is not surprising that the Czech central bank attempts competitive devaluation. The exclusive reliance on foreign trade is a matter of a bare survival. The expectation may be that income gains made on foreign trade could spark a revival of domestic demand. This expectation is now likely to be met in 2014 provided the business climate in the euro area (and in Germany in particular) does not deteriorate. Changes in the orientation of fiscal policy will be equally important. But enduring political instability, likely to persist for some time, may complicate the reorientation of fiscal policy. The eventual recovery in 2014 could be less constrained than elsewhere by the still sound financial position of the country’s banks, corporate non-financial and household sectors. The same applies to the public sector, whose debt is still low and quite cheap to finance.
|Main Economic Indicators||2010||2011||2012||2013||2014||2015|
|Population, 1000 persons.||10520||10496||10511||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||2.5||1.8||-1.0||-1.2||1.4||2.4|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||19500||20100||20300||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||8.6||5.9||-0.9||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||7.3||6.7||7.0||7.6||7.7||7.3|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||944||995||999||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||1.2||2.2||3.5||1.5||1.7||1.8|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-4.7||-3.2||-4.4||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||38.4||41.4||46.2||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-3.9||-2.7||-2.4||-1.2||-1.4||-1.6|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||4644||1632||8244||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||47.0||46.8||50.5||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
The Czech Republic: Deeper in recession
in: Animal Spirits still Dimmed: Slow Recovery Expected
wiiw Current Analyses and Forecasts No. 12, July 2013 , pp. 71-74 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 11/2013
Vasily Astrov, Vladimir Gligorov, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner and Olga Pindyuk
wiiw Monthly Report No. 11, November 2013
38 pages including 17 Tables Details