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Kazakhstan’s economic growth will drop to an annual rate of 4.5-5% over the period 2014-2016 owing to the delay in the launch of the Kashagan oil field and weaker external demand. The recent devaluation of the national currency appears to have had a net negative impact on the country’s economy, while the improvement in the current account balance will be only temporary. The banking sector in Kazakhstan continues to struggle with an excessive number of non-performing loans.
|Main Economic Indicators||2011||2012||2013||2014||2015||2016|
|Population, 1000 persons.||16557||16791||17035||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||7.5||5.0||6.0||4.5||4.5||5.0|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||15600||16800||18000||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||3.8||0.7||2.5||0.2||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||5.4||5.3||5.2||5.1||5.0||5.0|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||441||528||540||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||8.3||5.2||5.8||6.7||6.0||6.0|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-2.1||-2.9||-2.0||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||12.3||13.0||12.9||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||5.4||0.5||0.5||1.3||-0.1||-1.3|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||9885||10618||7514||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||71.8||65.1||62.5||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
KAZAKHSTAN: Economic growth loses pace
in: On Thin Ice: CESEE Core Resilient in the Face of EU Stagnation and the Ukraine Crisis
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2014, November 2014 , pp. 113-115 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 11/2013
Vasily Astrov, Vladimir Gligorov, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner and Olga Pindyuk
wiiw Monthly Report No. 11, November 2013
38 pages including 17 Tables Details