Increasing costs of keeping the KZT/USD exchange rate within the given band forced the government to switch to a floating currency regime, as a result of which the tenge depreciated by about 50%. A substantial weakening in external demand and sluggish domestic private consumption and investment will limit GDP growth to 1.5% in 2015. In 2016-2017, growth is expected to accelerate to 2.5% and 3.5%, respectively, since fiscal stimuli are expected to boost investment, while exports will gradually recover.
|Main Economic Indicators||2013||2014||2015||2016||2017||2018|
|Population, 1000 persons.||17035||17289||17544||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||5.8||4.1||1.2||2.5||3.5||.|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||17500||18300||.||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||2.5||0.3||-1.6||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||5.2||5.0||5.0||5.0||5.0||.|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||540||506||510||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||5.8||6.7||6.6||8.0||5.0||.|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-1.9||-2.7||-2.3||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||12.2||14.2||23.3||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||0.4||2.6||-3.4||-2.9||-2.4||.|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||7536||5306||6300||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||59.5||75.6||98.3||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 12/2015
Amat Adarov, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Leon Podkaminer and Roman Römisch
wiiw Monthly Report No. 12, December 2015
50 pages including 18 Figures
KAZAKHSTAN: Tenge set freely floating as economic growth stumbles
in: Mixed Prospects: Consumption Leads Fragile Recovery in the CESEE Core – CIS Stumbles
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2015, November 2015 , pp. 84-87 Details and Buy