The economy has been anaemic in 2016 primarily due to poor performance in the oil sector. Oil production and exports are expected to increase following the launch of the Kashagan oil field at end-2016. GDP growth will accelerate from 0.4% in 2016 to 2% in 2017, rising further to 3% in 2018. Household consumption will fall by 1% in real terms in 2016, yet recover in the two years thereafter, but it will still lag behind investment: the main growth factor in the short term.
|Main Economic Indicators||2013||2014||2015||2016||2017||2018|
|Population, 1000 persons.||17035||17289||17544||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||6.0||4.2||1.2||0.4||2.0||3.0|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||17500||18400||19000||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||2.5||0.3||-1.6||-1.1||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||5.2||5.0||5.0||5.2||5.0||5.0|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||540||508||513||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||5.8||6.7||6.6||14.6||7.0||6.0|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-2.0||-2.7||-2.2||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||12.6||14.6||22.7||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||0.5||2.7||-3.0||-3.5||-2.7||-2.4|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||7536||5336||5940||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||61.3||77.6||84.5||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
KAZAKHSTAN: Nearly avoiding recession
in: Labour Shortages Driving Economic Growth?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2016, November 2016 , pp. 73-76 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2016
Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Simona Jokubauskaite, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2016
25 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure