Increasing costs of keeping the KZT/USD exchange rate within the given band forced the government to switch to a floating currency regime, as a result of which the tenge depreciated by about 50%. A substantial weakening in external demand and sluggish domestic private consumption and investment will limit GDP growth to 1.5% in 2015. In 2016-2017, growth is expected to accelerate to 2.5% and 3.5%, respectively, since fiscal stimuli are expected to boost investment, while exports will gradually recover.
|Main Economic Indicators||2012||2013||2014||2015||2016||2017|
|Population, 1000 persons.||16791||17035||17289||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||5.0||6.0||4.4||1.5||2.5||3.5|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||16600||17500||18300||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||0.7||2.5||0.2||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||5.3||5.2||5.0||5.0||5.0||5.0|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||528||540||506||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||5.2||5.8||6.7||7.5||8.0||5.0|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-2.9||-2.0||-2.8||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||13.0||12.9||14.8||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||0.5||0.4||2.8||-3.1||-2.9||-2.4|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||10618||7536||5306||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||65.1||62.5||78.9||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
KAZAKHSTAN: Tenge set freely floating as economic growth stumbles
in: Mixed Prospects: Consumption Leads Fragile Recovery in the CESEE Core – CIS Stumbles
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2015, November 2015 , pp. 84-87 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2015
Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2015
25 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures