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The drop in global oil prices and depreciation of the Russian rouble has led to deterioration in Kazakhstan’s economic outlook. In 2015, growth will slow down to 2%, the lowest level since 2009. In the biennium 2016-2017, GDP growth will revive, rising to 3.5% and 4.5%, respectively. The National Bank is likely to embark on a gradual devaluation of the tenge vis-à-vis the US dollar; estimates hint at a figure of by about 15% by the end of 2015.
|Main Economic Indicators||2012||2013||2014||2015||2016||2017|
|Population, 1000 persons.||16791||17035||17289||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||5.0||6.0||4.3||2.0||3.5||4.5|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||16800||17400||18300||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||0.7||2.5||0.2||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||5.3||5.2||5.0||5.0||5.0||5.0|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||528||540||506||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||5.2||5.8||6.7||7.5||6.0||5.0|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-2.9||-2.0||-2.8||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||13.0||12.9||14.9||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||0.5||0.4||2.1||-4.0||-1.6||0.2|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||10618||7488||5718||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||65.1||62.5||79.4||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
KAZAKHSTAN: Waiting for devaluation
in: A Time of Moderate Expectations
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2015, March 2015 , pp. 113-116 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 11/2013
Vasily Astrov, Vladimir Gligorov, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner and Olga Pindyuk
wiiw Monthly Report No. 11, November 2013
38 pages including 17 Tables