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The Polish economy which still faces rather tough times in the near future is likely to accelerate in 2014. A continuing fall in inflation could give some boost to real disposable incomes and consumption. Public spending is likely to be increased. Foreign trade developments may prove helpful too, especially if some corrective weakening of the national currency materializes. The scale of external trade’s positive impulses will depend on what happens to the euro area and beyond.Later on, with growth resuming in the euro area (and in Germany in particular), growth – to a greater degree driven by expanding investment – should also accelerate in Poland.
|Main Economic Indicators||2011||2012||2013||2014||2015||2016|
|Population, 1000 persons.||38534||38536||38507||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||4.5||1.9||1.6||2.3||3.5||.|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||16400||17100||17700||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||6.7||1.2||2.4||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||9.7||10.1||10.6||10.8||10.5||.|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||826||844||870||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||3.9||3.7||0.9||1.9||2.0||.|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-5.0||-3.9||-4.8||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||56.2||55.6||58.2||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-5.0||-3.7||-1.5||-3.0||-3.3||.|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||14896||4763||-2991||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||67.4||72.7||72.1||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Poland: Not so soft landing ahead
in: Animal Spirits still Dimmed: Slow Recovery Expected
wiiw Current Analyses and Forecasts No. 12, July 2013 , pp. 91-93 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 2/2014
Vladimir Gligorov, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Johannes Pöschl and Roman Römisch
wiiw Monthly Report No. 2, February 2014
29 pages including 14 Tables and 8 Figures Details