In all likelihood, expanding private consumption and a recovery in investments will lead to an acceleration in economic growth in the order of 3.4% in 2015. VAT cuts and wage rises in the public sector may further accelerate consumption growth in 2016, yet trigger an increase in the foreign trade deficit. On average, consumer prices are stable; unemployment is hovering just below 7%, while signs of structural labour shortages are emerging.
|Main Economic Indicators||2012||2013||2014||2015||2016||2017|
|Population, 1000 persons.||20058||19984||19904||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||0.6||3.5||2.8||3.4||3.7||2.7|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||14000||14500||14600||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||2.4||7.9||6.1||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||6.8||7.1||6.8||6.8||6.7||6.6|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||463||489||524||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||3.4||3.2||1.4||0.0||1.0||2.0|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-3.2||-2.2||-1.4||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||37.4||38.0||39.9||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-4.8||-1.1||-0.5||-0.4||-0.7||-1.0|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||2380||2894||2926||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||75.5||68.0||63.2||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
ROMANIA: Investments and consumption fuel growth
in: Mixed Prospects: Consumption Leads Fragile Recovery in the CESEE Core – CIS Stumbles
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2015, November 2015 , pp. 109-112 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2015
Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2015
25 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures