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The Romanian economy will most likely not slow down as previously expected but expand by some 3% in 2015. First-quarter GDP growth was quite robust fuelled not only by private consumption but also by recovering investments. The Social Democrats-led government has cut the VAT rate, giving another push to private consumption in hope of gaining electoral support in the 2016 parliamentary elections. But the anti-fraud campaign may result in an early government change bringing the liberal opposition to power.
|Main Economic Indicators||2012||2013||2014||2015||2016||2017|
|Population, 1000 persons.||20058||19984||19904||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||0.6||3.4||2.8||3.0||3.3||3.0|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||14000||14500||14600||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||2.4||7.9||6.1||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||6.8||7.1||6.8||6.7||6.6||6.5|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||463||489||513||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||3.4||3.2||1.4||0.8||1.5||2.0|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-2.9||-2.2||-1.5||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||37.3||38.0||39.8||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-4.5||-0.8||-0.4||-0.6||-0.8||-1.0|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||2181||2894||2555||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||75.4||68.0||62.9||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2015
Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2015
25 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures
Romania: Investment slump and consumption boom
in: A Time of Moderate Expectations
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2015, March 2015 , pp. 75-78 Details and Buy