Romania

The Romanian economy will most likely not slow down as previously expected but expand by some 3% in 2015. First-quarter GDP growth was quite robust fuelled not only by private consumption but also by recovering investments. The Social Democrats-led government has cut the VAT rate, giving another push to private consumption in hope of gaining electoral support in the 2016 parliamentary elections. But the anti-fraud campaign may result in an early government change bringing the liberal opposition to power.

map Romania
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201220132014201520162017
Population, 1000 persons.200581998419930...
GDP, real change in %0.63.42.83.03.33.0
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)138001410014800...
Gross industrial production, real change in %2.47.96.1...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average6.87.16.86.76.66.5
Average gross monthly wages, EUR463489513...
Consumer prices, % p.a.3.43.21.40.81.52.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-2.9-2.2-1.5...
Public debt in % of GDP37.338.039.8...
Current account in % of GDP-4.5-0.8-0.4-0.6-0.8-1.0
FDI inflow, EUR mn218128942555...
Gross external debt in % of GDP75.468.062.9...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2015

Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2015
25 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures

Details

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Romania: Investment slump and consumption boom

Gabor Hunya
in: A Time of Moderate Expectations
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2015, March 2015 , pp. 75-78
Details and Buy


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