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The recent reduction in the current account deficit is not only due to a robust export performance but also due to falling imports.
Bosnia and Herzegovina
In the short run, the policy framework will remain restrictive because of the currency board and the pressure, by the IMF among others, for fiscal consolidation.
Economic weakening in the second quarter was followed by a moderate upturn in the second half of the year supported by stronger experts and a modest recovery in domestic demand.
Having faced another year of recession in 2013 Croatia’s GDP growth should finally rebound in 2014 driven mainly by an upturn in public investment activities and increasing foreign demand.
The foreign trade performance prevents the current Czech recession from assuming dismal proportions. Given this fact it is not surprising that the Czech central bank attempts competitive devaluation.
In Estonia the ongoing sluggish economic environment in the EU in general and the Scandinavian countries in general placed a palpable strain on the country’s growth prospects.
In Hungary 3. Quarter GDP data show a recovery. Primarily weather related good agricultural performance, upturn of construction activity due to acceleration in implementing of EU co-financed infrastructure projects are the explanatory factors.
Kazakhstan’s real GDP will grow by 5% - 6.5% during 2013-2015, in particular owing to the increase in oil production with the start of operation of Kashagan oil field.
Our forecast for Kosovo is a robust 3% GDP growth for 2013 and a reinforced growth of 5% in 2014.
The good mood of Latvian consumers at the brink of euro accession is further pushing economic activity.
Lithuanian economic activity is developing at a good pace. Not only households increase their outlays for consumption due to the ameliorated situation in the labour market and raised minimum wages.
In the short run, some recovery can be expected due to some pick up in investments, public and private, and the continuing positive contribution of the net exports.
In the short run economy should get out of recession and in the medium run recovery should speed up, but still at relatively slow speed.
The Polish economy which still faces rather tough times in the near future is likely to accelerate in 2014. A continuing fall in inflation could give some boost to real disposable incomes and consumption.
Romania has seen relatively fast economic growth recently fuelled by net exports and a bumper harvest. But investment activity has been weak and also private consumption stagnated.
Russian economic growth came to a standstill in 2013. The collapse of investment growth has been the main factor behind the recent GDP growth slowdown.
Prospect for this year will depend on the measures that will be taken before the summer recess.
Export-led growth in Slovakia continued in the first half of 2013, although it was considerably slower than the previous year when automotive production and exports surged.
Slovenia’s economy will face its third year of recession in 2014 and recover only slowly thereafter.
Thus far in 2013 Turkey has been recovering from the dramatic growth slowdown in 2012. The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) had induced that slowdown by shifting perceptibly towards tight monetary policy.
The economic recession continues on account of depressed global steel markets, persistent currency over-valuation, growth slowdown in the neighbouring Russia and the newly imposed politically motivated Russian trade sanctions.