WIIW The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies - Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche

In Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania alike, exports evolved much more strongly than expected. This has led to a substantial upward revision of the economic growth figures for both 2010 and 2011. In 2011, the revival of gross fixed investments will act as the main engine of growth in the Baltic States, while household consumption will also gain momentum. We expect GDP to increase between 2.8% in Latvia and 4.5% in Estonia in 2011 and between 3.5% and 4.5% in the subsequent two years. Nevertheless, as the rapid growth that marked the pre-crisis period is a thing of the past, the labour market situation will remain disappointing for a longer period of time. Unemployment rates, which in 2007 amounted on average to 5% in the Baltic States, more than trebled in the years leading up to mid-2010 and will remain double-digits throughout the period forecast.