Presentation of wiiw's latest growth forecast for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe - Recovery: Limp and Battered

07  July 2011    10:00 am


wiiw, 1060 Wien, Rahlgasse 3, Souterrain


The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) has just published its latestAnalyses and Forecasts.
The report, titled Recovery: Limp and Battered, analyses the current economic situation and gives a medium-term forecast (2011-2013) for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe.

In 2011 the recovery will encompass all countries in the CESEE region – even the laggards that did not grow in 2010. However GDP growth will not accelerate much in countries where the recession ended already in 2010. Later on, GDP growth rates will stabilize throughout the whole region at around 4 to 5 per cent, less than the levels recorded prior to the crisis.

Net exports will play an essential and positive role in 2011 in maintaining GDP growth in many new EU member states (NMS) where domestic demand continues to be languid. In countries whose exports depend on energy and raw materials (Russia, Ukraine), net exports will contribute negatively to overall GDP growth. At a later stage, the contribution of net exports will drop on a fairly universal scale, reflecting a revival in domestic demand (both consumption and investments) and a gradual deterioration of trade balances.

In a special chapter (‘Debt dynamics, flow of funds and deleveraging’) the debt developments of the private (households, corporate) and public sectors before and after the start of the financial crisis are examined and compared with those in the GIPS countries (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain).