WIIW The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies - Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche

After a robust first quarter, Russian GDP growth has begun to slow down. wiiw forecasts unspectacular growth during 2012-2014, assuming no abrupt policy changes or severe external shocks. Export revenues will grow rather slowly due to stagnating volumes of exported oil and gas; imports are expected to grow at a faster rate as household consumption and investment will gradually pick up, both fuelled by the ongoing real currency appreciation. In the medium and long run, reforms and investment (including FDI) may be stimulated by WTO membership, while the attempted large scale modernisation will bring few of the desired benefits any time soon.