wiiw Forecast Reports
SERBIA: Fiscal dilemma
publication_icon
in: On Thin Ice: CESEE Core Resilient in the Face of EU Stagnation and the Ukraine Crisis
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2014, November 2014 , pp. 95-96
| Hardcopy | € | 5 | add to cart |
SERBIA
In Serbia, where fiscal adjustment is urgently required, this year’s recession may at best be followed by stagnation or slow growth in the medium term. The risks are on the downside owing to the need to cut public expenditures rather significantly, the sole dilemma being whether fiscal consolidation will have to be frontloaded. Consumption, investment, and employment will depend on that issue. A certain increase in exports to Russia is forecast; this year, however, exports have in fact declined to date. The regime of sanctions currently emerging in Europe is exposing Serbia to growing pressure from Russia, which the country will find difficult to resist.
In Serbia, where fiscal adjustment is urgently required, this year’s recession may at best be followed by stagnation or slow growth in the medium term. The risks are on the downside owing to the need to cut public expenditures rather significantly, the sole dilemma being whether fiscal consolidation will have to be frontloaded. Consumption, investment, and employment will depend on that issue. A certain increase in exports to Russia is forecast; this year, however, exports have in fact declined to date. The regime of sanctions currently emerging in Europe is exposing Serbia to growing pressure from Russia, which the country will find difficult to resist.
Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database
Countries covered: SEE, Serbia