The Impact of Global Economic Crisis on Post-transition Economies: A Sign of Incomplete Transition or Market Reality?
30 June 2009 1:00 pm
Oleh Havrylyshyn, University of Toronto
wiiw, Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna, lecture hall (entrance from the ground floor)
This informal presentation will explore a number of possible explanations for the different impacts of the global crisis on different post-socialist economies. The aim is to identify a few key hypotheses and avenues for further research and analysis. The question put in the title is motivated by the following stylized facts. Some of the post socialist countries have been very hard hit by the global crisis - Hungary, Ukraine, Baltics (albeit in varying degrees) - while others have so far escaped the most severe effects - Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia. At the same time this grouping of more and less affected countries can be seen among mature market economies at different levels of development - Iceland, Ireland, Pakistan hard-hit, many others much less so. This points to an overarching question for CEECs: were the post socialist countries affected because of incomplete transition to the market, or are they simply now suffering common illnesses observed historically in market economies?