Romania

In view of the robust first-quarter growth we have revised upwards the GDP forecast to 4.8% in 2017 and to 4.3% in both of the following two years. The recently adopted downscaling of fiscal expansion may not be enough to avoid being placed under the EU’s excessive deficit procedure in 2018. The National Bank may start hiking the policy rate towards the end of the current year when inflation approaches the 2.5% target.

map Romania
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201420152016201720182019
Population, 1000 persons199091981519699...
GDP, real change in %3.13.94.84.84.34.3
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)153001650017200...
Gross industrial production, real change in %6.12.81.7...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average6.86.85.95.35.04.8
Average gross monthly wages, EUR524575626...
Consumer prices, % p.a.1.4-0.4-1.11.32.53.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-1.4-0.8-3.0...
Public debt in % of GDP39.438.037.6...
Current account in % of GDP-0.7-1.2-2.1-2.8-3.1-3.4
FDI inflow, EUR mn293138855656...
Gross external debt in % of GDP63.057.654.8...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2017

Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2017
27 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures

Details

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ROMANIA: Economic deceleration follows the boom

Gabor Hunya
in: Cautious Upturn in CESEE: Haunted by the Spectre of Uncertainty
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2017, March 2017 , pp. 103-106
Details and Buy


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