Albania

map Albania
Albania has a low volume of trade with Russia and Ukraine, but it will experience negative spill-overs from the war in Ukraine, on account of its strong trade relations with the EU. Monetary policy has shifted towards higher interest rates, and the government’s fiscal stimulus measures will go some way to support consumption. Exports of minerals and fuel have gained momentum; however the country’s current account balance will deteriorate. According to the baseline scenario, inflation this year will be 6% and growth 3.5%. In the medium term, inflation will fall to 3% and growth will rise to 3.9%.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201920202021202220232024
Population, 1000 persons285428382812...
GDP, real change in %2.1-3.58.53.53.73.9
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)9520911010220...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-1.1-6.326.6...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average11.511.711.511.211.010.6
Average gross monthly wages, EUR426434467...
Consumer prices, % p.a.1.41.62.06.03.42.5
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-1.9-6.7-4.5-4.6-3.0-2.0
Public debt in % of GDP65.874.573.2...
Current account in % of GDP-7.9-8.7-7.7-8.1-7.3-6.7
FDI inflow, EUR m10729371032...
Gross external debt in % of GDP60.064.363.1...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Executive summary

Vasily Astrov
in: Overshadowed by War and Sanctions
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2022, April 2022 , pp. I-VII
Details

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Monthly Report No. 1/2022

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Marcus How, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2022
58 pages including 4 Tables and 21 Figures

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