Albania

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The V-shaped recovery that we see suggests that the economy is back on track and will remain sound. GDP growth will accelerate to 6.4% in 2021 and will hover at above 4.5% in the medium term. The tourism sector has had an impressive year and is getting closer to its pre-pandemic level. Growth will be led by investment and by optimistic external and domestic demand, but downside risks stemming from the international markets and the pandemic call for vigilance.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201820192020202120222023
Population, 1000 persons286628542838...
GDP, real change in %4.02.1-4.06.44.54.2
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)919096309290...
Gross industrial production, real change in %18.7-1.1-6.3...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average12.311.511.711.411.211.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR397426434...
Consumer prices, % p.a.2.01.41.62.12.52.8
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-1.6-1.9-6.8-3.0-1.5-1.0
Public debt in % of GDP67.765.875.7...
Current account in % of GDP-6.8-7.9-8.8-8.5-7.7-7.1
FDI inflow, EUR m10201072937...
Gross external debt in % of GDP65.160.065.6...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Executive summary

Vasily Astrov
in: Recovery Beating Expectations
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2021, October 2021 , pp. I-VI
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2021

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2021
42 pages including 4 Tables and 15 Figures

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