map Russia
Low oil prices and a strong rebound of imports have resulted in the rouble depreciating by about 30% since the beginning of the year, prompting drastic monetary policy tightening. Nevertheless, the economy is continuing to recover on the strength of domestic demand, with military procurement boosting industrial production and construction, and a tight labour market pushing up wages and consumption. This year, growth is projected to exceed 2%, to be followed by a mild deceleration in 2024-2025. A growing addiction to fiscal military stimulus and increased technological backwardness together increase the risk of stagnation (or even outright crisis) once the war is over.
Main Economic Indicators202020212022202320242025
Population, 1000 persons146460145864146714...
GDP, real change in %-2.75.6-
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)196602257023620...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average5.
Average gross monthly wages, EUR623656901...
Consumer prices, % p.a.3.46.713.
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-4.00.8-1.4-2.5-2.0-1.5
Public debt in % of GDP17.615.514.9...
Current account in % of GDP2.46.610.
FDI inflow, EUR m829634166-37847...
Gross external debt in % of GDP29.227.516.8...

Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.


Executive summary

Branimir Jovanović
in: Beneath the Veneer of Calm
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2023, October 2023 , pp. I-VI


Monthly Report No. 9/2023

Vasily Astrov, Vladislav L. Inozemtsev, Ambre Maucorps and Roman Römisch
wiiw Monthly Report No. 9, September 2023
53 pages including 30 Figures