Serbia
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 6899 | 6834 | 6790 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -0.9 | 7.5 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 12810 | 14350 | 15130 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 0.4 | 6.3 | 1.7 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 9.0 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 8.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 706 | 772 | 880 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 1.6 | 4.1 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -8.0 | -4.1 | -3.1 | -3.0 | -2.5 | -2.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 57.8 | 57.1 | 55.6 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -4.1 | -4.2 | -6.9 | -5.0 | -4.0 | 3.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 3039 | 3886 | 4416 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 65.8 | 68.4 | 70.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 1/2023
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2023
44 pages including 4 Tables and 16 Figures
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Executive summary
Branimir Jovanović
in: Bracing for the Winter
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2022, October 2022 , pp. I-VIII
Details
Inflation moderated in Q4 2022, to average 11.9% for the whole year. GDP grew by 2.3% in 2022, with a slowdown in the latter half year – a result of stagnation in total investment. This was principally due to lower FDI inflows, which declined to 6% of GDP over the first three quarters of 2022 (from 7.3% in the previous five years). A significant factor in this decline was the reduction in FDI from the EU, whose share in Serbia’s FDI fell to 32% – roughly half of that seen in previous years. This can be attributed to uncertainty surrounding Serbia’s position on the war in Ukraine and its decision to remain close to Russia. For 2023, we forecast inflation to average 9% and GDP to expand by 1.5%. The main concerns lie in the realm of politics: as well as its close ties with Russia, Serbia faces a significant challenge in relation to the status of Kosovo, a source of tension over recent months. Bound up with these two factors is the country’s progress toward EU accession, which was not very rapid in 2022. If Serbia can navigate these challenges wisely – by finding a good resolution to the Kosovo issue, aligning itself with the EU and accelerating its accession process – its economic prospects are bright.