Hungary
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 9750 | 9710 | 9643 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -4.5 | 7.1 | 4.6 | -0.5 | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 22380 | 24350 | 27040 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -6.0 | 9.6 | 6.1 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.6 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1114 | 1188 | 1278 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 3.4 | 5.2 | 15.3 | 17.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -7.6 | -7.2 | -6.2 | -4.8 | -4.2 | -3.3 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 79.3 | 76.7 | 73.9 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -1.1 | -4.2 | -8.2 | -2.3 | -0.6 | 0.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 3095 | 7580 | 11882 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 81.1 | 84.9 | 89.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Executive summary
Branimir Jovanović
in: Beneath the Veneer of Calm
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2023, October 2023 , pp. I-VI
Details
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2023
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2023
51 pages including 3 Tables, 24 Figures and 1 Box
Hungary has slipped into recession, with private consumption and investment contracting in H1 2023. Net exports mitigated the decline. The economy may soon see a slight recovery, but the annual growth rate will remain at below zero. Only a modest recovery is expected in 2024 and 2025. Growth would receive a fillip from EU transfers and a strong recovery of the main export markets, but neither of those things is currently on the horizon. Fiscal consolidation and continued high interest rates may slow the pace of recovery. Inflation will likely fall to below 10% later in 2023 and slowly sink further over the next two years.