Belarus plunged into deep recession; GDP slumped by 4% in 2015. The crisis struck hard across the board, affecting all aspects of economic life, while policy-makers had little manoeuvring space in which to soften the blow. Short-term prospects are bleak as recession is likely to persist throughout 2016. A modest recovery may start in 2017, but it will be conditional on the revival of key export markets.
|Main Economic Indicators||2013||2014||2015||2016||2017||2018|
|Population, 1000 persons.||9466||9475||9490||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||1.0||1.7||-3.9||-2.6||0.5||1.5|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||13300||13700||13500||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||-4.9||2.0||-6.6||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate reg., in %, end of period||0.5||0.5||1.0||2.0||2.5||2.5|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||428||458||374||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||18.3||18.1||13.5||14.0||13.0||12.0|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||0.2||1.3||2.0||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||37.6||39.8||40.0||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-10.5||-6.9||-3.9||-2.5||-2.7||-2.9|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||1703||1445||1430||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||52.5||56.0||72.0||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
BELARUS: Recession continues
in: Growth Stabilises: Investment a Major Driver, Except in Countries Plagued by Recession
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2016, March 2016 , pp. 55-59 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 12/2015
Amat Adarov, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Leon Podkaminer and Roman Römisch
wiiw Monthly Report No. 12, December 2015
50 pages including 18 Figures