Belarus
NEW: 1 July 2016 denomination of the Belarusian rouble. Read more here
Belarus plunged into deep recession; GDP slumped by 4% in 2015. The crisis struck hard across the board, affecting all aspects of economic life, while policy-makers had little manoeuvring space in which to soften the blow. Short-term prospects are bleak as recession is likely to persist throughout 2016. A modest recovery may start in 2017, but it will be conditional on the revival of key export markets.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 |
| Population, 1000 persons. | 9466 | 9475 | 9490 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 1.0 | 1.7 | -3.9 | -2.0 | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 13300 | 13700 | 13500 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -4.9 | 2.0 | -6.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate reg., in %, end of period | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 428 | 458 | 377 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 18.3 | 18.1 | 13.5 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 10.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 0.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 37.6 | 39.8 | 40.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -10.5 | -6.9 | -3.8 | -1.8 | -1.3 | -1.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 1703 | 1445 | 1506 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 52.5 | 56.0 | 71.7 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2016
Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Simona Jokubauskaite, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2016
25 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure
BELARUS: Recession continues
Rumen Dobrinsky
in: Growth Stabilises: Investment a Major Driver, Except in Countries Plagued by Recession
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2016, March 2016 , pp. 55-59
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