Belarus
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 9228 | 9178 | 9133 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -4.7 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 17840 | 20180 | 21770 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -5.4 | 7.7 | 5.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.1 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 593 | 590 | 652 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 15.2 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -0.5 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 42.0 | 40.6 | 40.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 3.6 | -1.5 | -2.5 | -3.0 | -3.1 | -2.2 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 1529 | 1842 | 1596 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 53.2 | 49.2 | 48.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2025
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2025
38 pages including 5 Tables and 3 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
In Q1 2025, economic growth continued to decelerate, dropping to 3.0% year on year (from 4.0% in 2024) – although on a quarterly basis it accelerated. The main drag on growth is shrinking exports, particularly oil products to non-CIS countries. This decline is driven by worsening price conditions amidst falling global oil prices and likely logistical challenges due to the ongoing sanctions. Exports to Russia also dipped, reflecting weakening demand in the Russian economy, especially for imports. The Belarusian government, however, is actively resisting the slowdown by stimulating domestic demand, particularly through capital investment. Several measures are in play here. Monetary policy remains loose – and much looser than in Russia – while fiscal stimulus has been deployed via increased consolidated budget expenditure. Additionally, state-owned enterprises are being directed to boost investment activity. These efforts drove notable growth in fixed capital investment in Q1 2025. Alongside this, household consumption continues to pick up on the back of strong real wage increases amidst labour shortages. Given the government’s determination to promote economic activity despite the growing macroeconomic imbalances, we expect growth to reach 2.3% this year – significantly above our previous forecast. Nevertheless, the government’s reluctance to accept a slowing growth environment does come at a cost: the trade deficit surged to 3.4% of GDP in Q1 2025 (compared to a surplus of 0.2% of GDP in Q1 2024 and prevailing surpluses in 2020-2023), and the current account deficit will probably be near 3% of GDP this year, potentially acting as a brake on growth in 2026-2027. Inflation also spiked – despite strict price controls – reaching 6.9% year on year as of May, with prices up 4.4% over the first five months of 2025. It will probably average around 8% for the full year.