Poland

map Poland
Poland’s economy continues to grow solidly, supported by resilient domestic demand, lower interest rates and EU-funded investment. However, the latest escalation in the Middle East has sharply increased the risk of a new import cost shock through higher energy prices, although Poland enters this period with a relatively favourable external position. Fiscal policy is likely to remain expansionary, driven by high defence spending and measures to cushion the rising cost of living. GDP growth is still projected to be 3.6% in 2026, but the balance of risk has shifted towards somewhat lower growth and higher inflation.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202320242025202620272028
Population, 1000 persons366873655936500...
GDP, real change in %0.23.23.63.62.62.9
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)295203146033850...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-1.20.62.6...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average2.82.93.13.13.03.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR158518952100...
Consumer prices, % p.a.10.83.73.33.53.73.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-5.2-6.5-6.4-6.5-6.2-6.0
Public debt in % of GDP49.554.859.5...
Current account in % of GDP1.50.3-0.9-1.1-0.7-0.1
FDI inflow, EUR m329881899818198...
Gross external debt in % of GDP52.052.050.2...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2026

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2026
58 pages including 6 Tables and 15 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details


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