Poland
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 36822 | 36687 | 36600 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 5.3 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 28150 | 29580 | 31370 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 10.3 | -1.2 | 0.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1358 | 1585 | 1900 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 13.2 | 10.9 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -3.4 | -5.3 | -6.6 | -5.9 | -4.6 | -4.3 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 48.8 | 49.5 | 55.3 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -2.2 | 1.8 | 0.2 | -1.0 | 0.1 | 1.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 39258 | 31743 | 16969 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 53.2 | 51.6 | 52.4 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2025
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2025
38 pages including 5 Tables and 3 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
Poland’s economy made a solid start to 2025, with GDP growing by 3.2% year on year in Q1, continuing the trend seen in 2024. Growth was driven mainly by a rebound in fixed investment (which rose by 6.3%) and a build-up of inventories by firms. Other components of demand fell slightly short of expectations: private consumption grew by a modest 2.4%, while exports edged up just 1.1%, weighed down by weak demand from the country’s EU trading partners. Public capital spending was also disappointing, as some of the planned investment projects were delayed. Even so, the labour market remains stable. Unemployment rose only slightly in Q1 to 3.4%, and wages increased by 10% year on year in nominal terms, or 5.1% in real terms – though their growth is slowing. Inflation continued to ease, with deflationary tendencies present both domestically and externally. Headline CPI fell to 4.3% in April (from 4.9% in Q1) and is expected to reach the central bank’s target corridor (1.5-3.5%) in the second half of the year. This provided scope in May for the National Bank of Poland to cut the policy rate by 50 basis points. Further monetary policy easing may depend on political developments, following the victory of opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki in June’s presidential election. This somewhat surprising result is unlikely to have any direct macroeconomic repercussions, though the ruling coalition of Prime Minister Donald Tusk may wish to rebuild public support. Its key economic challenge remains to accelerate public investment, especially in the face of weak foreign demand. While uncertainty persists, we expect investment to remain the key driver of growth; we therefore maintain our 2025 GDP forecast at 3.5%.