Poland
The current moderate and broadly based growth will continue over the period 2016 2018 – with GDP averaging 3.4%. There is, however, every reason to expect less dynamic growth in terms of investment. 2017 will prove critical, unless the increase in social spending is offset by higher tax revenue.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 |
| Population, 1000 persons. | 38514 | 38487 | 38458 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 1.3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.4 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 17900 | 18600 | 19700 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 2.3 | 3.4 | 4.8 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 10.3 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 6.2 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 872 | 903 | 932 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 0.8 | 0.1 | -0.7 | -0.5 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -4.0 | -3.3 | -2.6 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 56.0 | 50.5 | 51.3 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -1.3 | -2.0 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -0.8 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 658 | 12826 | 6559 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 70.7 | 71.0 | 70.5 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2016
Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Simona Jokubauskaite, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2016
25 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure
POLAND: Keeping generous promises will not be easy
Leon Podkaminer
in: Growth Stabilises: Investment a Major Driver, Except in Countries Plagued by Recession
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2016, March 2016 , pp. 104-108
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