Ukraine

Barring a resumption of large-scale fighting in Donbas, the economic decline has now most probably bottomed out. However, given the depressed domestic demand and the new restrictions on trade with Russia, which will not be offset by the newly established ‘deep and comprehensive free trade’ area with the EU, we forecast zero growth for the current year, followed by gradual acceleration to around 2% over the period 2017-2018.

map Ukraine
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201320142015201620172018
Population, 1000 persons.454904300142845...
GDP, real change in %0.0-6.6-9.90.51.92.4
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)660065006000...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-4.3-10.1-13.0...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average7.29.39.110.010.09.5
Average gross monthly wages, EUR308221173...
Consumer prices, % p.a.-0.312.148.715.59.56.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-4.2-4.5-1.6...
Public debt in % of GDP38.469.479.4...
Current account in % of GDP-8.7-3.4-0.2-2.5-2.5-3.5
FDI inflow, EUR mn33966412750...
Gross external debt in % of GDP71.7102.6133.0...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2016

Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Simona Jokubauskaite, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8,
25 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure

Details

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UKRAINE: A ‘deep free trade’ EU partner

Vasily Astrov
in: Growth Stabilises: Investment a Major Driver, Except in Countries Plagued by Recession
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2016, , pp. 134-138
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