Bulgaria

Driven by a combination of positive domestic and external factors, GDP growth in 2015 outperformed expectations. The economy, however, is mired in chronic structural problems that policy-makers have systematically neglected. While GDP is expected to continue growing at a rate of 2-3% per annum over the short term, the absence of policy reforms may lead to an accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances.

map Bulgaria
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201320142015201620172018
Population, 1000 persons.726572247178...
GDP, real change in %1.31.53.02.93.03.1
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)122001280013300...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-0.11.82.9...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average13.011.49.28.58.07.5
Average gross monthly wages, EUR396420457...
Consumer prices, % p.a.0.4-1.6-1.10.00.51.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-0.4-5.5-2.1...
Public debt in % of GDP17.127.026.7...
Current account in % of GDP1.30.91.41.51.30.8
FDI inflow, EUR mn150915351580...
Gross external debt in % of GDP88.192.177.3...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2016

Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Simona Jokubauskaite, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8,
25 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure

Details

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BULGARIA: Growth in 2015 exceeds expectations, but can it be sustained?

Rumen Dobrinsky
in: Growth Stabilises: Investment a Major Driver, Except in Countries Plagued by Recession
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2016, , pp. 63-66
Details and Buy


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