Romania
In 2015 economic growth accelerated. In 2016 GDP will expand further by some 4%. Private consumption will enjoy a pro-cyclical boost thanks to tax-cuts and wage increases in the public sector, while fixed investments will also recover. For the most part, the impact of the fiscal stimulus will be short-lived; economic growth may well slow down in 2017.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 |
| Population, 1000 persons. | 19984 | 19909 | 19815 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 3.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 14400 | 15200 | 16300 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 7.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 489 | 524 | 568 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 3.2 | 1.4 | -0.4 | -1.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.1 | -0.9 | -0.7 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 38.0 | 39.8 | 38.4 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -1.1 | -0.5 | -1.1 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -3.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 2894 | 2931 | 3499 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 68.0 | 63.1 | 56.1 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2016
Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Simona Jokubauskaite, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2016
25 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure
ROMANIA: Pro-cyclical fiscal loosening
Gabor Hunya
in: Growth Stabilises: Investment a Major Driver, Except in Countries Plagued by Recession
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2016, March 2016 , pp. 109-113
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