The renewed plunge in oil prices at the beginning of 2016 has resulted in lower export and budget revenues, prompting a delay in stabilising the economy. Only since mid-2016 has the Russian economy seemingly begun to emerge slowly from recession. With oil prices more or less flat, financial and trade sanctions remaining in place and structural and institutional reforms absent, economic growth will stay sluggish – at less than 2% – even in the medium term.
|Main Economic Indicators||2014||2015||2016||2017||2018||2019|
|Population, 1000 persons.||146091||146406||146692||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||0.7||-2.8||-0.2||0.8||1.8||.|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||18700||17700||17200||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||1.7||-3.4||1.1||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||5.2||5.6||5.3||5.3||5.2||.|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||640||502||494||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||7.8||15.5||7.1||6.0||6.0||.|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-1.1||-3.4||-3.7||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||13.0||13.2||12.9||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||2.8||5.1||1.7||1.2||1.3||.|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||16655||5826||27100||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||31.7||38.6||42.6||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 12/2016
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Julia Grübler and Leon Podkaminer
wiiw Monthly Report No. 12, December 2016
45 pages including 2 Table and 5 Figures
RUSSIAN FEDERATION: Stagnation becomes the ‘new normal’
in: Labour Shortages Driving Economic Growth?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2016, November 2016 , pp. 101-104 Details and Buy