In 2016 economic growth has continued to be dampened by the slump in external demand both from the CIS economies and for oil products. Public investment has reached its nadir before fresh EU funds bring about an upswing in 2017. That notwithstanding, stable growth in terms of employment and rapid wage increases has resulted in consumer demand developing at a swift pace. For 2016, we forecast a moderate GDP growth rate of 2.3%, followed by an upswing to 2.6% and 3% in 2017 and 2018, respectively.
|Main Economic Indicators||2013||2014||2015||2016||2017||2018|
|Population, 1000 persons.||2958||2932||2905||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||3.5||3.5||1.8||2.3||2.6||3.0|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||19600||20700||21300||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||3.4||0.0||4.8||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||11.8||10.7||9.1||8.0||7.5||7.0|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||646||677||714||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||1.2||0.2||-0.7||0.6||2.1||2.3|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-2.6||-0.7||-0.2||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||38.7||40.5||42.7||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||1.5||3.6||-2.3||-2.2||-2.8||-2.9|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||531||387||873||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||70.3||69.8||75.9||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
LITHUANIA: Wage increases push consumption
in: Labour Shortages Driving Economic Growth?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2016, November 2016 , pp. 83-86 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2016
Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Simona Jokubauskaite, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2016
25 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure