Lithuania

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The story of resilient Lithuanian growth continues, but is becoming increasingly dependent on investment-inducing policies. In 2026, the economy has benefited from unusually strong defence expenditure and a temporary spike in private consumption. In 2027, these factors may weaken, making slower growth likely. By 2028, the economy could return to a more normal growth pattern, assuming resolution of the Middle Eastern conflict. The key medium-term challenge is to replace temporary fiscal support with stronger productivity and private investment.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202320242025202620272028
Population, 1000 persons287228882889...
GDP, real change in %2.93.03.02.82.53.1
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)334703529036540...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-5.34.03.3...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average6.97.16.96.76.66.6
Average gross monthly wages, EUR201422232411...
Consumer prices, % p.a.8.70.93.45.13.12.6
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-0.7-1.3-1.8-2.3-2.8-3.4
Public debt in % of GDP36.737.839.3...
Current account in % of GDP-0.81.6-1.0-2.0-1.8-1.7
FDI inflow, EUR m354843383386...
Gross external debt in % of GDP67.676.792.0...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2026

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Ioannis Gutzianas, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Isilda Mara, Michał Możdżeń, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2026
52 pages including 5 Tables

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
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