We have reduced our GDP growth forecast for 2016 to 2.4%. Private investment activity has become increasingly sluggish and public capital expenditure has been cut by a third as expected. Exports remain stagnant but household consumption has developed at a smart pace, driven by rapidly rising real wages. In both 2017 and 2018 we expect an upswing in GDP growth to 2.6% and 2.9%, respectively, driven by stronger external demand and greater investment activity in both the public and private sectors.
|Main Economic Indicators||2014||2015||2016||2017||2018||2019|
|Population, 1000 persons.||1994||1978||1961||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||2.1||2.7||1.8||2.6||2.9||.|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||17500||18600||19200||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||-1.0||3.6||5.4||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||10.8||9.9||9.7||9.2||8.8||.|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||765||818||850||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||0.7||0.2||0.1||1.8||2.1||.|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-1.6||-1.3||-0.9||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||40.7||36.3||40.0||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-2.0||-0.8||1.6||-1.9||-2.2||.|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||813||684||354||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||143.1||141.7||146.0||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
LATVIA: EU funds to rekindle investment ahead
in: Labour Shortages Driving Economic Growth?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2016, November 2016 , pp. 80-82 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2016
Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Simona Jokubauskaite, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2016
25 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure