Latvia
In 2016, GDP will rise by 3%. The slump in Russian demand can be offset by growth in exports to the EU and Asian markets. Household consumption will develop markedly, thanks to labour market improvements and a rapid rise in real wages, but investment growth will remain comparatively low. GDP growth will speed up to 3.2% in 2017 and 3.5% in 2018, driven by stronger external demand and greater investment activity in both the public and private sectors.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 |
| Population, 1000 persons. | 2013 | 1994 | 1978 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.3 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 16600 | 17500 | 18500 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -0.9 | -1.0 | 3.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 11.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 9.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 717 | 765 | 818 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -0.9 | -1.6 | -1.3 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 39.1 | 40.8 | 36.4 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -2.4 | -2.0 | -1.2 | -2.0 | -2.5 | -3.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 743 | 661 | 644 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 133.7 | 143.3 | 141.5 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2016
Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Simona Jokubauskaite, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2016
25 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure
LATVIA: Growing wages push domestic demand
Sebastian Leitner
in: Growth Stabilises: Investment a Major Driver, Except in Countries Plagued by Recession
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2016, March 2016 , pp. 90-93
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