Slow recovery in tandem with investment and export growth is to be expected over the medium term. Growth over the next three years or so should reach 2% or slightly more, if the fiscal consolidation programme and structural reforms are put into effect. Industrial production, in particular manufacturing, should grow, as should certain exportable services. Growth in wages and consumption, however, should be only relatively slow.
|Main Economic Indicators||2013||2014||2015||2016||2017||2018|
|Population, 1000 persons.||7167||7132||7040||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||2.6||-1.8||0.7||1.6||1.7||2.0|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||10100||10200||10600||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||5.4||-6.4||8.4||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||22.1||19.2||17.7||17.0||17.0||16.0|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||537||524||506||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||7.8||2.9||1.9||2.0||3.0||3.0|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-5.5||-6.6||-3.8||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||59.6||70.4||76.0||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-6.1||-6.0||-4.8||-6.0||-6.0||-6.0|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||1548||1500||2114||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||74.8||77.1||80.1||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
SERBIA: Early elections and reforms
in: Growth Stabilises: Investment a Major Driver, Except in Countries Plagued by Recession
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2016, March 2016 , pp. 117-120 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 9/2015
Amat Adarov, Fatos Hoxha, Werner Laventure and Isilda Mara
wiiw Monthly Report No. 9, September 2015
47 pages including 3 Tables and 33 Figures