Owing to both a 30% net rise in minimum wages and the current generous government spending, we expect GDP to expand by 3.2% in 2016. As for 2017 and 2018, we expect GDP to grow by 3.1% and 3.0%, respectively, owing to the recovery of foreign demand following a steady depreciation process and positive but lower growth rates of consumer loans, ultimately leading to a firm monetary policy stance.

map Turkey
Main Economic Indicators201320142015201620172018
Population, 1000 persons.761487718278500...
GDP, real change in %
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)141001450015200...
Gross industrial production, real change in %
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average9.79.910.310.310.210.1
Average gross monthly wages, EUR......
Consumer prices, % p.a.
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-1.5-0.9-1.6...
Public debt in % of GDP36.133.535.0...
Current account in % of GDP-7.8-5.5-4.5-5.2-5.0-5.0
FDI inflow, EUR mn9297943015086...
Gross external debt in % of GDP45.755.156.6...

Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.


TURKEY: Strong domestic demand offsets external sector weakness

Serkan Çiçek
in: Growth Stabilises: Investment a Major Driver, Except in Countries Plagued by Recession
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2016, , pp. 129-133
Details and Buy


Monthly Report No. 9/2015

Amat Adarov, Fatos Hoxha, Werner Laventure and Isilda Mara
wiiw Monthly Report No. 9,
47 pages including 3 Tables and 33 Figures