Czechia
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 10672 | 10864 | . | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.8 | -0.1 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 32150 | 34480 | . | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 2.1 | -1.3 | . | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1625 | 1796 | . | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 14.8 | 12.0 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -3.1 | -3.8 | -2.5 | -2.3 | -2.2 | -2.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 42.5 | 42.4 | . | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -4.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 8729 | 7620 | . | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 67.4 | 59.9 | . | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 1/2025
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej J. Grodzicki, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2025
50 pages including 6 Tables and 13 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
While German weakness will remain a major headwind for Czech growth, the economy should still be able to expand by 2.5% or more per year over the forecast period. Growth in 2025 will again be driven by rising real wages, as well as by the pass-through of monetary loosening. The latter factor will support an improvement in private investment this year, which will also be underpinned by flood repairs. Moreover, unlike many of its EU-CEE peers, Czechia faces no large fiscal consolidation this year. Inflation ticked up towards the end of 2024, but we do not see any major risk at present, and expect the central bank to continue to cut its policy rate in 2025, especially considering the persistently negative outlook for external demand. Beyond 2025, we see a further mild acceleration in growth as external conditions gradually improve, with inflation settling at just above 2%, allowing for further moderate monetary loosening. The frailty of the German economy remains the main downside risk, and that is already reflected in weak manufacturing sentiment and job losses in industry. The longer the external weakness continues, the greater the chances that it will pass through to domestic sentiment and household spending. Polls indicate that the upcoming parliamentary elections in late 2025 will see a return to power of the populist ANO party, but that is unlikely to have a significant impact on the economic outlook.