Trade Winds and Doldrums: Navigating the Great Recession and its Impact on Trade

In this talk, we review the dramatic developments in trade and output over the past two years, highlighting sectoral and regional patterns of the 'trade collapse' in early 2009 and the uneven pattern of the nascent recovery in trade. We highlight the experience of Central and Southern European countries. We also examine evidence of vulnerabilities related to trade openness, and give an outlook of possible medium-term dynamics of trade and output flows. We also discuss whether and to what extent openness has been linked to the transmission of the recession and look into the issue of trade policy failures versus other policy (especially regulatory) failures related to financial markets and the implications for trade.

Joseph Francois is professor of economics (with a chair in economic theory) with the Johannes Kepler University in Linz. He is also a fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (London) and the Tinbergen Institute (Amsterdam/Rotterdam), director of the European Trade Study Group and the Institute for International and Development Economics, research fellow with the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, and a board member of the Global Trade Analysis Project. He served on the editorial board of the Review of Development Economics, and the World Trade Review. He is also a member of the policy advisory group Trade Partnership. He was professor of economics at Erasmus University Rotterdam in 1995-2008, prior to that research economist for the World Trade Organization, and before chief of research and acting director of economics for the US International Trade Commission. Joseph Francois studied economics at the University of Maryland and the University of Virginia.

Julia Wörz is staff economist in the OeNB's Foreign Research Division, where she is responsible for, among other things, coordinating the semi-annual CEEC forecast and monitoring developments in Turkey. Before joining the OeNB in 2008, she worked at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) from 2001 onwards, specializing in international trade and trade policy. From 2006-2008 she held a postdoctoral research position at the Tinbergen Institute in the University of Rotterdam in the framework of the EU research network 'Trade, Industrialization and Economic Development'. She earned her doctoral degree in social and economic sciences from the University of Vienna in 2003. From 1996-1998, she completed the programme in economics at the Institute for Advanced Research in Vienna.