wiiw Forecast Reports
TURKEY: Strong domestic demand offsets external sector weakness
in: Growth Stabilises: Investment a Major Driver, Except in Countries Plagued by Recession
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2016, March 2016 , pp. 129-133
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Owing to both a 30% net rise in minimum wages and the current strong government spending, we expect GDP to expand by 3.2% in 2016. Given the ongoing tensions along the Turkish-Syrian border and with the decline in oil prices finally bottoming out, a recovery of (net) external demand is unlikely in 2016. As for 2017 and 2018, we expect GDP to grow by 3.1% and 3.0%, respectively, owing to the recovery of foreign demand following a steady depreciation process and positive but lower growth rates of consumer loans, ultimately leading to a firm policy stance being adopted by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
Countries covered: Turkey