Albania

map Albania
Economic growth in 2023 is estimated to have been 3.5%, supported by strong government and household consumption, as well as gross fixed capital formation. The country had an exceptionally good tourist season in 2023 (expected to be repeated in 2024), with the result that in Q3 it recorded a positive current account for the first time since 2000. For 2023 as a whole, the current account deficit is estimated to have dropped to a historically low level of -2.6% of GDP. Due to strong capital inflows, the national currency appreciated relative to the euro by 9.5%; this had repercussions for goods exports, which fell by around 10%. The central bank has already taken action in early 2024 to prevent the domestic currency from appreciating even further; but this will be difficult, as remittances and foreign direct investment inflows are expected to be robust in 2024. Last year, Albania had the lowest inflation of all CESEE countries, averaging 4.8%. However, real household disposable incomes, particularly of the most vulnerable groups, were tempered by the inflation rate for foodstuffs, which stood at 9.5%. Despite the decent GDP growth rate, employment growth remained weak. In Q3 2023, unemployment fell from 10.6% to 10.5%, year on year, while over the same period youth unemployment rose from 20.5% to 22%. The reform of public-sector wages – which will see them rise to EUR 900 a month on average in 2024 – will likely spill over to other wages. The reform will entail some costs for the budget, although the budget deficit will not exceed 2% of GDP.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202120222023202420252026
Population, 1000 persons281227782745...
GDP, real change in %8.94.93.43.63.73.4
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)102601210012880...
Gross industrial production, real change in %26.22.8-7.6...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average11.510.910.710.09.59.2
Average gross monthly wages, EUR467520648...
Consumer prices, % p.a.2.06.74.83.02.52.4
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-4.6-3.7-1.4-1.5-1.0-1.0
Public debt in % of GDP74.564.559.2...
Current account in % of GDP-7.7-5.9-0.9-3.5-3.4-3.4
FDI inflow, EUR m103213721492...
Gross external debt in % of GDP64.454.347.7...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2024

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2024
50 pages including 5 Tables and 18 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Branimir Jovanović
in: Beneath the Veneer of Calm
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2023, October 2023 , pp. I-VI
Details


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