Albania

The Albanian economy contracted in the last quarter of last year, due to a devastating earthquake on 26 November 2019. The COVID-19 crisis has thus affected an economy with limited liquidity buffers. There will be a negative impact on the current account, as tourism – a driver of growth over the past two years – becomes a drag on the economy. Foreign direct investment (FDI) and remittance flows will likely shrink. The economy will contract by 5% in 2020, due to a fall in domestic and external demand, but will rebound by 4% in 2021.

map Albania
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201720182019202020212022
Population, 1000 persons287328662854...
GDP, real change in %3.84.12.2-5.03.8.
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)9100960010100...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-0.618.5-1.1...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average13.712.311.513.611.5.
Average gross monthly wages, EUR365397426...
Consumer prices, % p.a.2.02.01.42.32.5.
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-2.0-1.6-1.9...
Public debt in % of GDP70.267.766.3...
Current account in % of GDP-7.5-6.8-7.6-9.5-9.0.
FDI inflow, EUR mn90010201080...
Gross external debt in % of GDP68.865.260.5...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

Due to the unusually high level of uncertainty caused by COVID-19, we only present forecasts for 2020-2021.

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Monthly Report No. 5/2020

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures

Details

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ALBANIA: Moderate growth and rising downside risks

Isilda Mara
in: Uncertainty in Turbulent Times
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2020, March 2020 , pp. 61-65
Details and Buy


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