Albania

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Growth accelerated to 5.5% in Q1 2021 year on year, boosted by a 21% increase in gross fixed capital formation. Consumption is back as well, supported by remittances (up 11% in Q1). Exports of goods rose by 35% in the first four months of 2021, year on year. Exports of services, mainly tourism, are also recovering rapidly, though tourism this year will rely heavily on visitors from neighbouring countries. The fiscal situation has improved, with revenues growing by 7% in the first four months, but the government’s purse will remain open and the fiscal balance will be negative (albeit less negative than in 2020). Monetary policy will stay loose, as inflation continues at below its target of 3%.

The mass vaccination campaign launched in March has had the desired effect, and the number of COVID-19 cases has declined markedly. Still, there are downside risks from new variants of the virus and from the influx of tourists. The Socialist Party emerged victorious from the April 2021 election and will govern the country for another term – its third one. This implies certain stability and the continuation of several infrastructure projects that will attract investment. Thus, we have upgraded our growth forecast for 2021 from 4.5% to 5%, and for the next two years to above 4%.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201820192020202120222023
Population, 1000 persons286628542838...
GDP, real change in %4.02.1-3.85.04.44.2
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)919096309290...
Gross industrial production, real change in %18.7-1.1-6.3...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average12.311.511.711.411.211.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR397426434...
Consumer prices, % p.a.2.01.41.62.12.42.6
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-1.6-1.9-6.8-4.5-3.5-2.0
Public debt in % of GDP67.765.875.7...
Current account in % of GDP-6.8-7.9-8.8-7.8-7.2-6.7
FDI inflow, EUR m10201072933...
Gross external debt in % of GDP65.160.065.5...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2021

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanovic, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2021
42 pages including 4 Tables and 15 Figures

Details

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ALBANIA: Moderate recovery and mass vaccination against COVID-19 started

Isilda Mara
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 42-46
Details and Buy


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