Albania

The economy is expected to contract by 6.4% in 2020. Recovery is unlikely to be just around the corner, given the current pandemic. The public debt is in danger of becoming unsustainable and public finances have little room for manoeuvre. In the medium term, the prospects for FDI inflows look positive. Assuming that the pandemic does not trigger a second lockdown, we expect the economy to resume growing at over 4%, backed by an upsurge in external demand and a rebound of private consumption in 2021.

map Albania
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201720182019202020212022
Population, 1000 persons287328662854...
GDP, real change in %3.84.12.2-6.44.64.0
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)894094409710...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-0.618.5-1.1...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average13.712.311.514.513.012.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR365397426...
Consumer prices, % p.a.2.02.01.41.51.82.2
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-2.0-1.6-1.9...
Public debt in % of GDP70.267.766.3...
Current account in % of GDP-7.5-6.8-8.0-9.6-8.2-7.5
FDI inflow, EUR mn90010201072...
Gross external debt in % of GDP68.865.260.4...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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ALBANIA: Light at the end of the tunnel, but still far off

Isilda Mara
in: No Quick Recovery in Sight, with Coronavirus Risks Looming Large
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2020, November 2020 , pp. 35-39
Details and Buy

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Monthly Report No. 5/2020

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures

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