Albania
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 2812 | 2778 | 2745 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 8.9 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 10260 | 12100 | 12880 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 26.2 | 2.7 | -8.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 11.5 | 10.9 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 10.2 | 10.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 467 | 520 | 648 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.3 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -4.6 | -3.7 | -1.4 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -2.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 74.5 | 64.5 | 58.9 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -7.7 | -5.9 | -0.9 | -1.4 | -1.3 | -1.4 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 1032 | 1371 | 1492 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 64.4 | 54.3 | 47.7 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2024
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2024
45 pages including 5 Tables and 12 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
The economy is expected to grow at 3.6% in 2024, driven by robust domestic and external demand. Domestic demand is benefiting from strong household consumption, government spending and investment. Consumer confidence has been improving, thanks to rising wages and falling inflation in the first half of the year. Public-sector wages are set to rise by 14% in June 2024, with the private sector expected to follow suit. This is driven by the ongoing tourist boom and a tighter labour market resulting from a high rate of emigration. The rate of increase in consumer prices has slowed in the first half of this year, averaging 2.8% annually for January to April 2024; that said, the rising wages are likely to generate inflationary pressures in the second half of the year, preventing inflation from falling below 3% in 2024. Robust external demand means that the domestic currency is appreciating against the euro. This appreciation is causing negative spillovers for export-oriented companies and is leading to layoffs. Although goods exports have accelerated in real terms, nominal exports have contracted significantly. Meanwhile, imports remain on a positive trajectory, which could lead to a deterioration in the current account. On the positive side, particularly in the medium term, we anticipate a surge in public and private investment – not least owing to rising FDI inflows – which will propel economic growth to 3.8% in 2025 2026.