Albania

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The economy is expected to have accelerated to above 8% in 2021 supported by buoyant household, government and investment spending (the latter thanks to a construction boom and post-earthquake reconstruction). The expansion in economic activity benefited from rising services exports and tourism, although the levels of both remained at below those of pre-pandemic times. Merchandise exports rose sharply – especially of minerals, fuel and electricity. In December 2021, inflation rose to 3.7% and will stabilise at 3% in 2022. The fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic at the start of 2022 brought unprecedented numbers of daily infections. Meanwhile, 40% of the population has been fully vaccinated. Skyrocketing international energy prices suggest that 2022 could be a bumper year for the extraction industry and its exports. In 2022, growth will hover at 4.2%; this will be driven by domestic and external demand – though the pace of growth will be slower than before, since the base effect is already a thing of the past.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201920202021202220232024
Population, 1000 persons28542838....
GDP, real change in %2.1-4.08.24.24.03.8
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)95208960....
Gross industrial production, real change in %-1.1-6.3....
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average11.511.711.311.110.810.5
Average gross monthly wages, EUR426434....
Consumer prices, % p.a.1.41.62.02.92.82.8
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-1.9-6.8-5.0-3.5-2.5-2.0
Public debt in % of GDP65.875.7....
Current account in % of GDP-7.9-8.8-7.7-7.1-6.9-6.7
FDI inflow, EUR m1072937....
Gross external debt in % of GDP60.065.4....


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2022

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Marcus How, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2022
58 pages including 4 Tables and 21 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Vasily Astrov
in: Recovery Beating Expectations
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2021, October 2021 , pp. I-VI
Details


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