Albania
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 2778 | 2745 | 2740 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.8 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 12190 | 13800 | 14840 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 2.7 | -8.4 | -7.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 10.9 | 10.7 | 8.5 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 9.5 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 520 | 648 | 769 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -3.6 | -1.3 | -0.7 | -1.5 | -1.0 | -1.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 64.1 | 57.5 | 54.7 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -5.9 | -1.2 | -2.1 | -3.1 | -2.5 | -3.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 1371 | 1498 | 1550 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 54.1 | 46.3 | 42.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 1/2025
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej J. Grodzicki, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2025
50 pages including 6 Tables and 13 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
Economic growth is estimated to have reached 4% in 2024. Tourism recorded another positive year, as did FDI and remittances. A strong rise in nominal wages (of 9.4% for the first three quarters of 2024, year on year) bolstered consumption, while the current account benefited from buoyant exports of services and from remittances. However, the domestic currency continued to appreciate (by more than 5% in 2024) and remained overvalued, thereby hampering goods exports and export-oriented firms. The currency appreciation, the low fiscal deficit and the solid economic growth all contributed to a further marked reduction in public debt – down to 56% of GDP, compared to 64% in 2022. Inflation remained low and stable, at 2.6%, and is expected to stay below the central bank’s target of 3%, as imported inflation continues to be subdued. In November 2024, the Central Bank cut interest rates further, indicating that monetary policy will remain loose; this will support the demand for credit. However, the expansion of credit for real estate purchases developed rapidly: up to November 2024, household mortgages denominated in the domestic currency rose by 26% year on year, while real estate loans to private non-financial corporations in EUR increased by 30%, raising concern and generating calls for a tightening of the lending criteria. In November 2024, Albania became a member of the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA), marking a further step towards EU integration and enhancing the country’s investment potential. The economic outlook remains positive. In the medium term, growth is expected to stay close to 4%, though there are downside risks stemming from the possible weakening of foreign demand.