Turkey

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Economic activity began losing momentum in Q2 and is likely to deteriorate further throughout the rest of the year, while inflation has been declining since June. The current account balance improved significantly this year, due to declining imports and stable energy prices. As the Fed and the ECB have begun their easing cycles, the central bank is expected to start cutting its rates this year as well. We have maintained our growth forecast for 2024 at 3.4%, with growth picking up in 2025 and 2026 to 4% and 4.5%, respectively. With little progress in its relations with the EU and the US, Turkey is increasingly focusing on strengthening its ties with BRICS and the Arab League.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202220232024202520262027
Population, 1000 persons8498085326....
GDP, real change in %5.55.13.04.04.5.
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)2451027460....
Gross industrial production, real change in %5.01.6....
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average10.59.48.89.69.0.
Average gross monthly wages, EUR590639....
Consumer prices, % p.a.72.354.058.531.026.0.
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-1.1-5.2-4.8-4.0-3.5.
Public debt in % of GDP30.829.3....
Current account in % of GDP-5.0-3.6-1.2-2.4-3.4.
FDI inflow, EUR m1302710180....
Gross external debt in % of GDP49.543.8....


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2024

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2024
45 pages including 5 Tables and 12 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII Details

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