Turkey
Sharp monetary tightening will contribute to a slowdown in growth, but the economy will still expand at a healthy rate during the forecast period, driven by private consumption, and helped by relatively benign external conditions. However, the downside risks are significant. The large external financing requirement will leave Turkey exposed to a sharper-than-expected hike in US rates or change in global investor sentiment.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 78218 | 79278 | 80313 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 6.1 | 3.2 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 4.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 18800 | 18600 | 19700 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 6.2 | 3.4 | 8.9 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 10.3 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.5 | 10.2 | 10.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 7.7 | 7.7 | 11.1 | 10.3 | 8.0 | 6.8 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.0 | -1.7 | -2.0 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 27.6 | 28.3 | 28.3 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -3.7 | -3.8 | -5.5 | -6.2 | -5.9 | -5.8 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 16216 | 12077 | 9656 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 47.5 | 49.6 | 50.2 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
TURKEY: Growth will remain strong but external risks are significant
Richard Grieveson
in: Riding the Global Growth Wave
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2018, March 2018 , pp. 150-153
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2017
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, August 2017
27 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures