Turkey
Turkey’s economy is heading for recession, and is set to face at least several difficult quarters. US monetary tightening, and domestic and international political risk factors, have combined with an unbalanced and debt-reliant growth model to create a perfect storm for Turkey. The policy response by the authorities, including monetary tightening and an attempt to calm international tensions, have significantly reduced the chances of a full-blown crisis. Our core scenario is that the economy will start to recover by end-2019.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 79278 | 80313 | 81100 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.2 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 4.0 | . |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 19200 | 19900 | 20500 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 3.4 | 8.9 | 1.7 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 10.0 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 7.7 | 11.1 | 16.3 | 17.0 | 12.0 | . |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.7 | -2.0 | -3.3 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 28.3 | 28.3 | 30.5 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -3.8 | -5.5 | -4.3 | -3.2 | -3.2 | . |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 12077 | 9643 | 12000 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 49.8 | 50.3 | 61.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
TURKEY: Accepting reality and hoping for the best
Richard Grieveson
in: Strong Growth Amid Increased Negative Risks
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2018, November 2018 , pp. 138-141
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2017
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, August 2017
27 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures