Turkey

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After a strong first half year, driven by reopening effects and a boom in tourism, the economy looks set for a much bleaker winter. The boosts to external competitiveness that resulted from the weak lira were short lived and soon erased by inflation, while the main benefits of the rebound in tourism have already been reaped. The extremely high inflation is sharply reducing purchasing power and is putting pressure on industry. Risks are weighted to the downside, including the potential for domestic political noise ahead of the election, rising US interest rates and the geopolitical backdrop.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201920202021202220232024
Population, 1000 persons825798338584147...
GDP, real change in %0.81.911.45.12.53.2
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)184401841020670...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-0.62.216.5...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average13.713.212.011.510.59.5
Average gross monthly wages, EUR703570556...
Consumer prices, % p.a.15.212.319.670.726.719.5
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-3.2-2.9-2.3-3.2-2.4-2.0
Public debt in % of GDP32.639.741.8...
Current account in % of GDP0.7-5.0-1.6-4.9-4.6-4.1
FDI inflow, EUR m8547681511753...
Gross external debt in % of GDP54.656.356.7...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Executive summary

Branimir Jovanović
in: Bracing for the Winter
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2022, October 2022 , pp. I-VIII
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2022

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Bernhard Moshammer, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2022
58 pages including 4 Tables and 21 Figures

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