Turkey
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 81407 | 82579 | 83385 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.0 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 3.8 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 19170 | 18530 | 19000 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 1.1 | -0.6 | 2.2 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 11.0 | 13.7 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 12.2 | 11.1 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 630 | 703 | 570 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 16.3 | 15.2 | 12.3 | 17.5 | 12.2 | 10.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.8 | -3.2 | -2.8 | -3.5 | -2.5 | -1.5 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 30.2 | 32.7 | 39.5 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -2.7 | 0.9 | -5.2 | -3.1 | -2.9 | -2.7 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 10931 | 8274 | 6814 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 56.7 | 54.6 | 56.3 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Executive summary
Vasily Astrov
in: Recovery Beating Expectations
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2021, October 2021 , pp. I-VI
Details
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2021
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2021
42 pages including 4 Tables and 15 Figures
The economy is currently booming, underpinned by strong credit growth, robust domestic consumption, and the impact of the global recovery on export demand and tourism. Ultra-loose monetary policy by the major economies is supporting capital inflows; but as the US, in particular, starts to taper its asset purchases, the risks for Turkey’s external financing will rise. While the short-term outlook is good, the usual vulnerabilities remain – not least high inflation and uncertainty over the direction of monetary policy.