Turkey

map Turkey
Turkey’s economy demonstrated resilience in Q2 2025, with GDP growing by 4.8% year on year, driven by strong household consumption and investment, despite tighter monetary policy. The economic impact of the domestic political turmoil following Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu’s arrest appears to have been largely absorbed; thus we have maintained our 2025 growth forecast at 3.4%. However, risks remain, as upcoming court cases against the main opposition party could weaken the lira and push up inflation. Fiscal consolidation is continuing, though the budget deficit remains elevated. US-Turkey ties appear stronger in President Trump’s second term than they were in his first, while domestic political tension remains the main risk to the economic outlook.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202320242025202620272028
Population, 1000 persons8532685519....
GDP, real change in %5.03.33.43.94.4.
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)2673028630....
Gross industrial production, real change in %1.60.4....
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average9.48.78.58.58.3.
Average gross monthly wages, EUR639741....
Consumer prices, % p.a.54.058.534.924.014.0.
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-5.1-4.8-3.6-3.5-3.1.
Public debt in % of GDP28.223.625.0...
Current account in % of GDP-3.7-0.8-1.8-3.1-3.8.
FDI inflow, EUR m986810830....
Gross external debt in % of GDP42.339.736.0...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

publication_icon

Monthly Report No. 7-8/2025

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2025
38 pages including 5 Tables and 3 Figures

Details

publication_icon

Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII Details

top