Turkey
The economy is expanding in quarterly terms, but overall growth is still likely to be negative in 2019. From next year the recovery will firm; we expect the economy to expand by a bit more than 3% in 2020 21. However, while external vulnerabilities are much reduced, the possibility of serious sanctions and volatility in the exchange rate related to the military operation in Northern Syria pose material downside risks to our forecasts.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 79278 | 80313 | 81407 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.2 | 7.5 | 2.8 | -0.7 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 19200 | 19900 | 20100 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 3.4 | 9.1 | 1.1 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 11.5 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 682 | 599 | 494 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 7.7 | 11.1 | 16.3 | 16.5 | 13.0 | 11.2 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.7 | -2.0 | -2.8 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 28.3 | 28.2 | 30.2 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -3.8 | -5.5 | -3.4 | -0.2 | -1.6 | -2.3 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 12627 | 10201 | 11078 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 49.8 | 50.3 | 59.5 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
TURKEY: Recovery arrives but risks rising again
Richard Grieveson
in: Braced for Fallout from Global Slowdown
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2019, November 2019 , pp. 122-126
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 6/2019
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Hermine Vidovic and Goran Vuksic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2019
27 pages including 24 Tables and 1 Figure