The economy staged an impressive rebound in Q3, but this relied heavily on credit, resulting in a weaker lira, higher inflation and a widening of the current account deficit. Growth in Q4 will therefore slow, with the full-year 2020 decline likely to be a bit over 3%. In 2021, we expect a strong bounce-back, with growth above 4%. The risks, as ever, are the financing of the external deficit, delayed monetary policy reaction and geopolitics.

map Turkey
Main Economic Indicators201720182019202020212022
Population, 1000 persons803138140782579...
GDP, real change in %
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)193601916018540...
Gross industrial production, real change in %9.11.1-0.6...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average10.910.913.713.513.411.5
Average gross monthly wages, EUR599494511...
Consumer prices, % p.a.11.116.315.
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-2.0-2.8-3.2...
Public debt in % of GDP28.029.931.7...
Current account in % of GDP-4.7-2.51.2-2.8-3.3-3.9
FDI inflow, EUR mn9804110417845...
Gross external debt in % of GDP49.858.756.9...

Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.


TURKEY: Sailing close to the wind again

Richard Grieveson
in: No Quick Recovery in Sight, with Coronavirus Risks Looming Large
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2020, November 2020 , pp. 121-124
Details and Buy


Monthly Report No. 11/2020

Alexandra Bykova, Branimir Jovanovic, Artem Kochnev and Sergey Markedonov
wiiw Monthly Report No. 11, November 2020
54 pages including 2 Tables and 30 Figures