Turkey
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 85326 | 85518 | 85825 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 5.0 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.4 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 26730 | 28630 | 30380 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 1.6 | 0.4 | 2.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 9.4 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 639 | 741 | 816 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 54.0 | 58.5 | 34.9 | 30.0 | 21.0 | 15.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -5.1 | -4.8 | -3.4 | -3.3 | -3.4 | -4.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 28.3 | 23.6 | 23.8 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -3.7 | -1.0 | -2.0 | -2.4 | -2.6 | -3.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 9834 | 10796 | 11563 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 37.2 | 35.3 | 31.5 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 03/2026
Vasily Astrov, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Ioannis Gutzianas, Nadya Heger, Mario Holzner and Olga Pindyuk
wiiw Monthly Report No. 03, March 2026
31 pages including 1 Table and 5 Figures
publication_icon
Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
Turkey’s economy grew by 3.6% in 2025, driven by domestic demand, while net exports weighed on activity. As a net importer of energy, Turkey is highly exposed to the Middle Eastern conflict. In our baseline scenario – in which we assume that the conflict will end soon and that the energy price shock is only temporary – we forecast 3.7% GDP growth and 29% inflation in 2026. In the adverse scenario (in which the conflict persists and energy prices remain elevated for longer), the outlook would deteriorate significantly. Monetary policy remains tight, while exchange-rate stability is supported by foreign-exchange interventions. The improved 2025 budget balance provides some scope to absorb the higher energy costs, though rising interest payments limit fiscal support.