Turkey
Uniquely in CESEE, the Turkish economy posted positive full-year economic growth in 2020, reflecting credit expansion in response to the pandemic. A period of higher nominal interest rates stabilised the lira, but is likely now at an end thanks to yet another change at the top of the central bank. Growth will be strong this year but slow by 2022, either due to high real interest rates to get inflation under control, or a lira collapse and balance of payments crisis.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 81407 | 82579 | 83385 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.0 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 3.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 19160 | 18540 | 18960 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 1.1 | -0.6 | 2.2 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 10.9 | 13.7 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 12.5 | 11.1 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 494 | 511 | 466 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 16.3 | 15.2 | 12.3 | 16.0 | 12.0 | 10.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.8 | -3.2 | -4.5 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 30.2 | 32.6 | 36.7 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -2.7 | 0.9 | -5.2 | -3.8 | -3.6 | -3.5 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 10975 | 8274 | 6822 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 58.7 | 56.9 | 60.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
TURKEY: Back to boom and bust
Richard Grieveson
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 131-135
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 3/2021
Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Mahdi Ghodsi and Branimir Jovanovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 3, March 2021
50 pages including 2 Tables and 31 Figures