Turkey
The economy staged an impressive rebound in Q3, but this relied heavily on credit, resulting in a weaker lira, higher inflation and a widening of the current account deficit. Growth in Q4 will therefore slow, with the full-year 2020 decline likely to be a bit over 3%. In 2021, we expect a strong bounce-back, with growth above 4%. The risks, as ever, are the financing of the external deficit, delayed monetary policy reaction and geopolitics.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 80313 | 81407 | 82579 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | -3.5 | 4.1 | 4.6 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 19360 | 19160 | 18540 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 9.1 | 1.1 | -0.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 10.9 | 10.9 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 11.5 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 599 | 494 | 511 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 11.1 | 16.3 | 15.2 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 10.2 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.0 | -2.8 | -3.2 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 28.0 | 29.9 | 31.7 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -4.7 | -2.5 | 1.2 | -2.8 | -3.3 | -3.9 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 9804 | 11041 | 7845 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 49.8 | 58.7 | 56.9 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
TURKEY: Sailing close to the wind again
Richard Grieveson
in: No Quick Recovery in Sight, with Coronavirus Risks Looming Large
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2020, November 2020 , pp. 121-124
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 11/2020
Alexandra Bykova, Branimir Jovanovic, Artem Kochnev and Sergey Markedonov
wiiw Monthly Report No. 11, November 2020
54 pages including 2 Tables and 30 Figures