Turkey
Economic activity is losing momentum as the Middle East conflict takes its toll on exports. In Q1 2026, Turkey’s economy grew by 2.5% year on year and 0.1% quarter on quarter. Economic activity moderated, driven mainly by a negative contribution from net exports: exports contracted by 12.7% and imports by 2% year on year. Government consumption (2.1% year on year) and household consumption (4.8% year on year) provided a partial buffer to growth. The most recent high-frequency indicators paint a mixed picture: the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.8 in May, its highest value since March 2024, while consumer confidence and capacity utilisation remained flat. The conflict in the Middle East will continue to exert downward pressure on growth through higher energy prices and lower external demand. We have thus revised our 2026 growth forecast down to 3.3% (from 3.8%), and our 2027 forecast down to 3.9% (from 4.1%).
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FORECAST* |
| Main Economic Indicators | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 85326 | 85518 | 85825 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 5.0 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 4.2 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 26730 | 28630 | 28840 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 1.6 | 0.4 | 2.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 9.4 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 639 | 741 | 816 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 54.0 | 58.5 | 34.9 | 35.0 | 28.0 | 18.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -5.1 | -4.8 | -2.6 | -3.3 | -3.4 | -4.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 28.3 | 23.6 | 23.7 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -3.7 | -1.0 | -2.0 | -2.4 | -2.5 | -2.9 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 9834 | 10796 | 11563 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 37.2 | 35.4 | 31.5 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2026
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Ioannis Gutzianas, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Isilda Mara, Michał Możdżeń, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2026
52 pages including 5 Tables
Details
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
Economic activity is losing momentum as the Middle East conflict takes its toll on exports. In Q1 2026, Turkey’s economy grew by 2.5% year on year and 0.1% quarter on quarter. Economic activity moderated, driven mainly by a negative contribution from net exports: exports contracted by 12.7% and imports by 2% year on year. Government consumption (2.1% year on year) and household consumption (4.8% year on year) provided a partial buffer to growth. The most recent high-frequency indicators paint a mixed picture: the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.8 in May, its highest value since March 2024, while consumer confidence and capacity utilisation remained flat. The conflict in the Middle East will continue to exert downward pressure on growth through higher energy prices and lower external demand. We have thus revised our 2026 growth forecast down to 3.3% (from 3.8%), and our 2027 forecast down to 3.9% (from 4.1%).
