Turkey

map Turkey
Even before Russia invaded Ukraine, Turkey was in big trouble, with inflation at eye-watering levels, a currency that had halved in value in just a few months, a rapidly expanding current account deficit and rising pressure on external financing due to aggressive Fed tightening. Now the situation is even more difficult, owing to Turkey’s strong economic ties with Russia and its heavy reliance on commodity imports. The best-case scenario is a sharp slowdown in growth; meanwhile, the risk of a renewed period of macroeconomic and financial instability has increased.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201920202021202220232024
Population, 1000 persons825798338584147...
GDP, real change in %0.91.811.02.72.83.2
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)184701841021700...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-0.62.216.5...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average13.713.212.011.510.59.5
Average gross monthly wages, EUR703570536...
Consumer prices, % p.a.15.212.319.655.020.010.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-3.2-2.9-2.3-3.2-2.4-2.0
Public debt in % of GDP32.639.742.0...
Current account in % of GDP0.7-5.0-1.8-6.3-5.8-5.5
FDI inflow, EUR m8547681511586...
Gross external debt in % of GDP54.556.357.0...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Executive summary

Vasily Astrov
in: Overshadowed by War and Sanctions
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2022, April 2022 , pp. I-VII
Details

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Monthly Report No. 1/2022

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Marcus How, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2022
58 pages including 4 Tables and 21 Figures

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