Turkey
The economy may be past the worst, but foreign investors are no longer willing to finance a large current account deficit. A return to positive growth is likely from next year, but the downside risks remain considerable, including instability in domestic politics and international relations. Compared with summer 2018, monetary policy is now much tighter and the current account deficit considerably narrower, which could help to shield the economy from further shocks.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 79278 | 80313 | 81407 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.2 | 7.4 | 2.6 | -1.2 | 2.8 | 3.1 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 19200 | 19900 | 20400 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 3.4 | 9.1 | 1.1 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 11.5 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 682 | 599 | 471 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 7.7 | 11.1 | 16.3 | 16.5 | 13.0 | 11.2 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.7 | -2.0 | -2.8 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 28.3 | 28.3 | 30.4 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -3.8 | -5.5 | -3.5 | -0.4 | -1.5 | -2.2 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 12077 | 9671 | 11212 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 49.8 | 50.4 | 59.9 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 6/2019
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Hermine Vidovic and Goran Vuksic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2019
27 pages including 24 Tables and 1 Figure
TURKEY: A tough adjustment and a challenging year ahead
Richard Grieveson
in: Moving Into the Slow Lane
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2019, March 2019 , pp. 144-148
Details and Buy