Turkey

The economy is growing strongly, thanks to both government-driven stimulus and robust foreign demand. However, continued political noise – both at home and abroad – risks knocking the recovery off course. Rapid private credit growth is also a source of concern, although the main risk remains the large external financing requirement, which leaves Turkey highly exposed to further tightening of monetary policy in the US.

map Turkey
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201420152016201720182019
Population, 1000 persons771827821879278...
GDP, real change in %5.26.13.25.43.93.9
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)169001800017900...
Gross industrial production, real change in %3.63.21.9...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average9.910.310.911.010.610.4
Average gross monthly wages, EUR......
Consumer prices, % p.a.8.97.77.710.87.86.8
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-0.8-1.0-1.7...
Public debt in % of GDP28.627.528.1...
Current account in % of GDP-4.7-3.7-3.8-4.1-3.9-3.9
FDI inflow, EUR mn96371581111147...
Gross external debt in % of GDP47.047.149.2...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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TURKEY: Economy shrugging off political noise with help of external demand

Richard Grieveson
in: CESEE Back on Track to Convergence
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2017, November 2017 , pp. 123-127
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2017

Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2017
27 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures

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