Turkey
Economic activity has so far remained resilient, despite high inflation, tight monetary policy and weak external demand. In 2025, the main drivers of growth were household consumption and investment. Despite some loss of momentum, in Q3 real GDP grew by 3.7% year on year and 1.1% quarter on quarter. Household consumption increased by 4.8% year on year and investment rose by 11.7%, while net exports weighed on growth, as exports fell by 0.7% and imports rose by 4.3%. High-frequency indicators, including the PMI, consumer confidence, retail sales and industrial production, improved, suggesting that solid growth will have been sustained into Q4 as well. Over the forecast horizon, a loosening of monetary policy, combined with increased fiscal spending ahead of the likely 2027 general election and improved external demand, particularly from the EU, is likely to boost economic activity significantly. We expect GDP growth to accelerate over the forecast period, rising from 3.9% in 2026 to 4.4% in 2027 and 4.6% in 2028.
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FORECAST* |
| Main Economic Indicators | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 85326 | 85518 | 85825 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 5.0 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.6 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 26730 | 28630 | . | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 1.6 | 0.4 | 2.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 9.4 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 8.3 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 639 | 741 | 810 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 54.0 | 58.5 | 34.9 | 24.0 | 16.0 | 11.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -5.1 | -4.8 | -3.6 | -3.3 | -3.7 | -3.6 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 28.2 | 23.6 | 25.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -3.7 | -0.8 | -1.6 | -2.1 | -2.8 | -3.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 9868 | 10830 | 11559 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 42.3 | 39.7 | 36.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 1/2026
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2026
58 pages including 6 Tables and 15 Figures
Details
publication_icon
Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
Economic activity has so far remained resilient, despite high inflation, tight monetary policy and weak external demand. In 2025, the main drivers of growth were household consumption and investment. Despite some loss of momentum, in Q3 real GDP grew by 3.7% year on year and 1.1% quarter on quarter. Household consumption increased by 4.8% year on year and investment rose by 11.7%, while net exports weighed on growth, as exports fell by 0.7% and imports rose by 4.3%. High-frequency indicators, including the PMI, consumer confidence, retail sales and industrial production, improved, suggesting that solid growth will have been sustained into Q4 as well. Over the forecast horizon, a loosening of monetary policy, combined with increased fiscal spending ahead of the likely 2027 general election and improved external demand, particularly from the EU, is likely to boost economic activity significantly. We expect GDP growth to accelerate over the forecast period, rising from 3.9% in 2026 to 4.4% in 2027 and 4.6% in 2028.
