Turkey

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The economy performed exceptionally well by CESEE standards in 2020 and most of 2021 – it likely grew by almost 10% last year. However, cuts to the nominal policy rate at a time of rising inflation led to a currency collapse in late 2021, resulting in a further sharp surge in the price growth, which in December attained a level not seen for almost two decades. The elevated inflation is eating rapidly into real incomes: the upshot will be a dampening effect on consumption throughout 2022. With the government apparently unwilling to change course, the currency remains prone to further bouts of weakness, particularly in the context of rising interest rates in the developed world and the likely consequent outflow of capital from the emerging markets. Economic growth will be considerably more sluggish in 2022, given the inflation rate of well over 20% and the likelihood of persistent uncertainty regarding economic policy.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201920202021202220232024
Population, 1000 persons8257983385....
GDP, real change in %0.91.89.53.53.54.0
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)1847018410....
Gross industrial production, real change in %-0.62.2....
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average13.713.213.112.512.011.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR703570....
Consumer prices, % p.a.15.212.319.626.216.012.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-3.2-2.8-2.8-3.0-2.5-2.5
Public debt in % of GDP32.739.5....
Current account in % of GDP0.9-5.0-2.3-2.0-2.0-3.5
FDI inflow, EUR m82746580....
Gross external debt in % of GDP54.656.3....


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2022

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Marcus How, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2022
58 pages including 4 Tables and 21 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Vasily Astrov
in: Recovery Beating Expectations
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2021, October 2021 , pp. I-VI
Details


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