Turkey
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 82579 | 83385 | 84147 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 0.8 | 1.9 | 11.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.2 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 18440 | 18410 | 20670 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -0.6 | 2.2 | 16.5 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 13.7 | 13.2 | 12.0 | 10.8 | 10.5 | 9.5 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 703 | 570 | 556 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 15.2 | 12.3 | 19.6 | 67.7 | 22.6 | 19.6 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -3.2 | -2.9 | -2.3 | -3.2 | -2.4 | -2.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 32.6 | 39.7 | 41.8 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 0.7 | -5.0 | -1.7 | -6.3 | -5.8 | -5.5 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 8547 | 6815 | 11770 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 54.6 | 56.3 | 56.7 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2022
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Bernhard Moshammer, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2022
58 pages including 4 Tables and 21 Figures
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Executive summary
Vasily Astrov
in: Overshadowed by War and Sanctions
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2022, April 2022 , pp. I-VII
Details
Economic and financial risks are extremely high owing to deeply negative real interest rates, skyrocketing inflation, an ever weaker lira and an expanding current account deficit. Turkey is also facing strong external headwinds, reflecting its high level of exposure to Russia, heavy reliance on commodity imports and the vulnerability of the lira in the face of rapid US monetary tightening. Real economic growth in 2022 and throughout the forecast period will be low by historical standards, as double-digit inflation continues to eat into real incomes and affects consumer and business confidence. Without a dramatic change of course by the central bank, the lira will continue to weaken in the coming years.