Turkey

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The economy emerged from its technical recession in Q4 2024, with GDP growing by 1.7% quarter on quarter. This recovery was largely driven by a surge in household consumption, supported by stronger investment. Looking ahead, we anticipate no significant improvement, given the ongoing domestic and global uncertainty, and we have maintained our 2025 growth forecast at 3.5%. Turning to the political landscape, the Turkish authorities have arrested Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, the leading opposition candidate for the 2028 presidential election. Initial market reaction suggests that, while the central bank’s disinflation programme is likely to continue, the pace of disinflation and interest rate cuts will be slower than initially expected.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202220232024202520262027
Population, 1000 persons849808532685519...
GDP, real change in %5.55.13.23.54.04.5
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)245102746029180...
Gross industrial production, real change in %5.01.60.4...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average10.49.48.79.09.08.8
Average gross monthly wages, EUR590639741...
Consumer prices, % p.a.72.354.058.536.025.014.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-1.1-5.2-4.8-3.8-3.5-2.6
Public debt in % of GDP30.829.324.7...
Current account in % of GDP-5.0-3.6-0.8-2.5-3.0-3.5
FDI inflow, EUR m13153986810421...
Gross external debt in % of GDP48.843.140.7...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

publication_icon

Monthly Report No. 1/2025

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej J. Grodzicki, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2025
50 pages including 6 Tables and 13 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details


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