Turkey
The economy is growing quite strongly, underpinned by government stimulus and measures to boost credit, strong export demand, and still-low oil prices. Despite heightened political risk, the near-term outlook remains positive. Growth will average around 3% over the forecast period, with risks now to the upside. However, the large current account deficit will be increasingly difficult to finance as global dollar liquidity is tightened, and could be a constraint on growth.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| Population, 1000 persons. | 77182 | 78218 | 79278 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 5.2 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 16900 | 18000 | 18200 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 9.9 | 10.3 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 10.8 | 10.4 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 8.9 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 6.8 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -0.8 | -1.0 | -1.7 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 28.6 | 27.5 | 28.3 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -4.7 | -3.7 | -3.8 | -3.7 | -3.8 | -4.1 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 9636 | 15808 | 11116 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 47.1 | 47.1 | 49.5 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2017
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2017
27 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures
TURKEY: Political risk will continue to weigh on growth
Richard Grieveson
in: Cautious Upturn in CESEE: Haunted by the Spectre of Uncertainty
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2017, March 2017 , pp. 123-128
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