Turkey
The worst of the crisis may have passed, assuming that the government does not attempt any radical measures and that relations with the US do not deteriorate. However, the economy will have a difficult year in 2019. Things should improve by 2020, with the economy bouncing back to reasonable growth. External risks remain, but the current account deficit has shrunk considerably, reducing vulnerabilities, and a more dovish US Federal Reserve provides important support.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 79278 | 80313 | 81407 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.2 | 7.4 | 2.6 | -0.7 | 3.2 | 3.7 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 19200 | 19900 | 20400 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 3.4 | 9.1 | 1.1 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 11.8 | 11.2 | 10.5 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 7.7 | 11.1 | 16.3 | 15.8 | 9.3 | 7.9 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.7 | -2.0 | -3.3 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 28.3 | 28.3 | 30.5 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -3.8 | -5.5 | -3.5 | -0.4 | -1.4 | -1.9 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 12077 | 9671 | 11212 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 49.8 | 50.4 | 59.9 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
TURKEY: A tough adjustment and a challenging year ahead
Richard Grieveson
in: Moving Into the Slow Lane
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2019, March 2019 , pp. 144-148
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 3/2019
Richard Grieveson, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya and Leon Podkaminer
wiiw Monthly Report No. 3, March 2019
47 pages including 6 Tables and 31 Figures