Turkey

map Turkey
Turkey’s economic activity has slowed slightly in 2026, partly reflecting the impact of the war in Iran, with GDP growth at 2.3% year on year in Q2. The war has also kept inflation elevated through higher energy and transport costs, although the impact has been smaller than initially feared. We have revised our growth forecast downward to 2.9% in 2026, with inflation expected to be 32%. Recent investment-fund turmoil has emerged as a new financial-stability risk, placing additional pressure on market confidence and the lira. The central bank is still expected to begin cautious easing towards year-end. The current-account deficit remains manageable, as weaker domestic demand dampens imports, although external financing has become increasingly dependent on volatile portfolio inflows.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202320242025202620272028
Population, 1000 persons853268551885825...
GDP, real change in %5.03.53.72.93.54.0
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)267302868028940...
Gross industrial production, real change in %1.60.42.6...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average9.48.78.38.38.38.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR639741816...
Consumer prices, % p.a.54.058.534.932.028.018.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-5.1-4.8-2.6-3.3-3.4-4.0
Public debt in % of GDP28.323.623.7...
Current account in % of GDP-3.7-1.0-2.0-2.5-2.6-2.9
FDI inflow, EUR m98341079611477...
Gross external debt in % of GDP37.235.431.5...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

publication_icon

Monthly Report No. 7-8/2026

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Ioannis Gutzianas, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Isilda Mara, Michał Możdżeń, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2026
52 pages including 5 Tables

Details

publication_icon

Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details


top