Turkey
During the 2017 2019 forecast period, the Turkish economy will grow at a much slower rate than in recent years. This partly reflects political risks, both domestic and international. In this context, and at a time of monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve, the financing of Turkey’s large current account deficit will be more challenging. Monetary tightening by the Turkish central bank will remain limited, which will exacerbate the weakness of the lira and keep inflation high.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| Population, 1000 persons. | 77182 | 78218 | 79278 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 5.2 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.1 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 16900 | 18000 | 18200 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 9.9 | 10.3 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 10.6 | 10.4 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 8.9 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 6.8 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -0.8 | -1.0 | -1.6 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 28.6 | 27.5 | 28.3 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -4.7 | -3.7 | -3.8 | -5.1 | -5.4 | -5.7 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 9636 | 15808 | 11116 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 47.1 | 47.1 | 49.5 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 4/2017
Mahdi Ghodsi, Richard Grieveson, Julia Grübler and Oliver Reiter
wiiw Monthly Report No. 4, April 2017
48 pages including 2 Tables and 35 Figures
TURKEY: Political risk will continue to weigh on growth
Richard Grieveson
in: Cautious Upturn in CESEE: Haunted by the Spectre of Uncertainty
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2017, March 2017 , pp. 123-128
Details and Buy
