Turkey
Having only just recovered from the 2018 lira collapse, Turkey finds itself back in the midst of yet another crisis. The Coronavirus will present huge challenges for the economy, and we expect real GDP to decline by 6% this year. Capital flight from emerging markets is at an all-time high, and this presents serious risks for Turkey’s ability to meet its external debt commitments. However, if the immediate crisis is weathered, the recovery in Turkey should be strong.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 80313 | 81407 | 82579 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | -6.0 | 5.5 | . |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 19600 | 19700 | 20000 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 9.1 | 1.1 | -0.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 10.9 | 10.9 | 13.7 | 17.2 | 15.6 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 599 | 494 | 511 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 11.1 | 16.3 | 15.2 | 12.0 | 11.0 | . |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.0 | -2.8 | -3.2 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 28.2 | 30.2 | 32.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -5.5 | -3.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.2 | . |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 9804 | 11104 | 7514 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 50.2 | 59.4 | 57.9 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Due to the unusually high level of uncertainty caused by COVID-19, we only present forecasts for 2020-2021.
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures
TURKEY: Looking good, for now
Richard Grieveson
in: Uncertainty in Turbulent Times
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2020, March 2020 , pp. 147-150
Details and Buy