Poland

map Poland
Economic growth remains robust, supported by disinflation and resilient domestic demand. In Q3 2025, real GDP expanded by 3.8% year on year, and full-year growth is estimated to have been 3.5%. Growth was driven by domestic demand, in particular public investment and household consumption. Retail sales grew by around 4%, supported by improved consumer confidence that reached its highest level since 2019. This good showing compensated for slower growth in export-oriented manufacturing. In 2026, the expected normalisation of the household saving ratio (after last year’s record-high level) in the wake of lower interest rates should further boost private consumption. We expect a mild acceleration in GDP growth to 3.7% in 2026, driven by private consumption and investment related to large infrastructure projects.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202320242025202620272028
Population, 1000 persons3668736559....
GDP, real change in %0.23.03.53.73.22.9
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)2952031320....
Gross industrial production, real change in %-1.20.62.6...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average2.82.93.13.03.03.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR158518952100...
Consumer prices, % p.a.10.93.73.33.02.72.5
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-5.2-6.5-6.9-6.2-6.0-5.7
Public debt in % of GDP49.555.160.4...
Current account in % of GDP1.50.3-0.8-1.0-0.8-0.6
FDI inflow, EUR m3298818998....
Gross external debt in % of GDP52.052.253.5...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2026

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2026
58 pages including 6 Tables and 15 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details


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