Poland

map Poland
After the shallow recession recorded in the first half of 2023, output growth resumed in Q3 (+0.5% year on year) and accelerated further in Q4 (to an estimated 1.5%). In 2023 as a whole, GDP probably grew by 0.3%. Growth has consistently been driven by net exports of goods and services (with imports falling much more than exports), public gross fixed capital formation and public consumption. The contribution made to growth by private consumption has remained insignificant, while the contribution of sharply declining inventories has been negative. This decline in inventories is likely to be less pronounced in 2024, while the big expansion in public consumption – fuelled by a growing fiscal deficit – will continue for a few quarters at least. Overall GDP growth will accelerate, as fixed investments are set to expand further – even if private consumption grows less dynamically than is generally expected and foreign trade performs less favourably. Inflation fell to 6.2% in December 2023, but further disinflation may be at risk if there is a return to positive VAT rates on foodstuffs and if the subsidies on energy prices are reduced. The parliamentary elections held on 15 October brought to power a broad coalition of centre-left parties. The new government under Mr Tusk inherited a hostile state president and a budget designed by its predecessor. Social policies will not change much, at least in 2024.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202120222023202420252026
Population, 1000 persons3774736822....
GDP, real change in %6.95.30.33.03.53.0
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)2524028160....
Gross industrial production, real change in %14.510.6-1.9...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average3.42.92.73.53.63.5
Average gross monthly wages, EUR124513541575...
Consumer prices, % p.a.5.213.210.94.73.62.5
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-1.8-3.7-5.5-5.7-5.4-5.5
Public debt in % of GDP53.649.3....
Current account in % of GDP-1.3-2.41.20.60.0-0.5
FDI inflow, EUR m3056834608....
Gross external debt in % of GDP56.153.1....


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2024

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2024
50 pages including 5 Tables and 18 Figures

Details

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POLAND: Technically in recession

Adam Żurawski
in: Beneath the Veneer of Calm
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2023, October 2023 , pp. 108-111
Details and Buy


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