Poland
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 36982 | 36822 | 36687 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 6.9 | 5.3 | 0.1 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 3.3 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 26350 | 28500 | 30090 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 14.5 | 10.3 | -1.2 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1245 | 1358 | 1585 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 5.2 | 13.2 | 10.9 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 2.8 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.8 | -3.4 | -5.3 | -5.9 | -5.7 | -5.3 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 53.0 | 48.8 | 49.7 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -1.3 | -2.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -0.5 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 31712 | 39258 | 31743 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 55.6 | 53.2 | 51.8 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 12/2024
Branimir Jovanović, Artem Kochnev, Manuel Neubauer and Monika Schwarzhappel
wiiw Monthly Report No. 12, December 2024
55 pages including 1 Table and 38 Figures
publication_icon
Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
A weak recovery in the fourth quarter of 2023 was followed by GDP growth of 2% (year on year) in Q1 2024 and 3.2% in Q2. The continued expansion of consumption, both private and public, will push GDP growth in 2024 as a whole above 3%. Nominal wages are rising, though less dynamically than before. Spurred by a partial deregulation of energy prices in July 2024, inflation jumped from 2.5% in Q2 2024 to about 4.4% in Q3; it is expected to peak in Q1 2025 and decline thereafter.