Poland

map Poland
GDP rose by 2% year on year in Q1 2024, driven by strong consumption. External balances remain positive. Rising real wages and investment will speed up growth in the coming quarters. Investment will be positively affected by rising public spending, also on account of higher transfers from the EU sources. Inflation is low (2.4% in April) but the wage dynamics and price effects of the coming energy market’s deregulation will push it up in the second half of 2024. Most probably the official interest rate (5.75%) will not change in 2024 and the PLN will remain strong. We stick by our previous forecast for inflation in 2024 and raise the forecast for GDP growth to 3.3%, from 3.1% in spring.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202120222023202420252026
Population, 1000 persons377473682236687...
GDP, real change in %6.95.60.23.33.63.3
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)252402822030110...
Gross industrial production, real change in %14.510.3-1.2...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average3.42.92.82.83.03.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR124513581575...
Consumer prices, % p.a.5.213.210.94.53.52.8
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-1.8-3.4-5.1-5.9-5.4-5.3
Public debt in % of GDP53.649.249.6...
Current account in % of GDP-1.3-2.41.61.0-0.30.0
FDI inflow, EUR m305683460829219...
Gross external debt in % of GDP56.253.751.7...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2024

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2024
45 pages including 5 Tables and 12 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
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