Poland

map Poland
Poland’s economy has been growing steadily in 2025, with GDP expected to rise by 3.5%, driven by household and government spending, as well as by firms replenishing their inventories. However, private investment and exports remain weak, and unemployment is slowly rising, especially in export-oriented sectors. Inflation has eased, but real wage growth is slowing as well, which may reduce consumer demand in the coming years. In the context of a high policy rate and growing private savings, fiscal policy remains expansionary, pushing public debt higher. Despite current stability, structural change in international competitiveness and political tension between the government and the president pose risks to future growth.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202320242025202620272028
Population, 1000 persons3668736559....
GDP, real change in %0.23.03.53.73.22.9
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)2952031320....
Gross industrial production, real change in %-1.20.62.6...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average2.82.93.13.03.03.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR15851895....
Consumer prices, % p.a.10.93.73.33.02.72.5
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-5.2-6.5-6.9-6.2-6.0-5.7
Public debt in % of GDP49.555.160.465.569.072.0
Current account in % of GDP1.50.3-0.8-1.0-0.8-0.6
FDI inflow, EUR m3298818998....
Gross external debt in % of GDP52.052.253.555.056.558.0


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

publication_icon

Monthly Report No. 1/2026

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2026
58 pages including 6 Tables and 15 Figures

Details

publication_icon

Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII Details

top