Poland

map Poland
Poland’s economy continues to grow at a solid pace. In Q1 2026, GDP expanded by 3.5% year on year, driven mostly by domestic demand. Lower interest rates, resilient household spending and EU-funded investment should support activity. Because of the expected acceleration in EU funds absorption and higher growth in government consumption, we have revised our GDP growth forecast for 2026 upwards, by 0.1pp, to 3.7%. However, the risks are primarily on the downside.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202320242025202620272028
Population, 1000 persons366873655936500...
GDP, real change in %0.23.23.63.72.93.0
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)295203146033820...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-1.20.62.6...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average2.82.93.13.13.03.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR158518952100...
Consumer prices, % p.a.10.83.73.33.53.73.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-5.2-6.5-7.3-6.5-6.2-6.0
Public debt in % of GDP49.554.859.7...
Current account in % of GDP1.50.3-0.9-1.3-1.1-0.5
FDI inflow, EUR m329881899818198...
Gross external debt in % of GDP52.052.050.4...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2026

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Ioannis Gutzianas, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Isilda Mara, Michał Możdżeń, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2026
52 pages including 5 Tables

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
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