Poland
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 36822 | 36687 | . | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 5.3 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 28150 | 29460 | . | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 10.3 | -1.2 | . | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1358 | 1585 | . | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 13.2 | 10.9 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -3.4 | -5.3 | -5.8 | -5.6 | -4.6 | -3.7 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 48.8 | 49.7 | . | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -2.2 | 1.8 | 0.0 | -1.0 | -0.4 | 0.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 39258 | 31743 | . | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 53.2 | 51.8 | . | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 1/2025
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej J. Grodzicki, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2025
50 pages including 6 Tables and 13 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
Poland’s GDP grew by 2.7% year on year in Q3 2024 – slightly below expectations, owing to stagnation in private consumption and exports. High-frequency data on business confidence and the balance of payments point to a continued slowdown in manufacturing in Q4, accompanied by rising inflation following the deregulation of energy prices. We estimate that in 2024 GDP grew by 2.8%, driven by private consumption and public spending, though this was accompanied by a large budget deficit and a deteriorating current account. In 2025, we expect GDP growth to accelerate to 3.5%, bolstered by domestic expansion, which will offset weak demand from abroad. Investment will grow dynamically, supported by unlocked EU recovery funds. Low unemployment (around 3%) and a big increase in the official minimum wage will be conducive to real wage growth and private consumption. With presidential elections due in May 2025, Poland’s ruling coalition will maintain the current expansive fiscal policy. Coupled with significant defence spending, this will push the budget deficit to 5.6% of GDP this year (and will contribute to a moderate current account deficit), which should be comfortably financed thanks to the substantial liquidity in the domestic banking sector. Fiscal adjustments under the EU’s excessive deficit procedure are expected to commence only in 2026, but thereafter will constrain the policy space. Elevated inflation and a slightly weakened exchange rate mean that any reduction in the monetary policy rate is likely to be postponed to H2 2025 at the earliest.