Poland

map Poland
Very strong GDP growth in Q1 2022 was driven by private consumption and rising inventories, although the latter are very likely mostly ‘works in in progress’. Fixed investment rose moderately, and exports were less dynamic than imports. Gross value added is surging in the manufacturing and construction sectors, and the profitability of the corporate sector is at a record high. Wage costs are subdued amid high growth in productivity. Inflation is the key concern and is unlikely to cool down as long as external energy problems (supply and price) persist. Wages are following inflation sluggishly and have recently declined in real terms, which may augur a slowdown of output growth. Against this background the government’s policy response is confused. While the central bank is tightening its policy, the government seems keen on ‘compensating’ for the inflation losses through the provision of subsidies to the most affected social groups. The conflict over the ‘reforms’ of the judicial system is temporarily less intense, but it is far from over. Because of this Poland has so far received no payments from the EU Recovery Funds. Further delays are possible.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201920202021202220232024
Population, 1000 persons379653789937747...
GDP, real change in %4.7-2.25.94.23.63.8
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)227402276024960...
Gross industrial production, real change in %4.1-1.214.5...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average3.33.23.43.23.13.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR114511761240...
Consumer prices, % p.a.2.13.75.210.58.04.5
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-0.7-6.9-1.9-3.8-3.5-3.0
Public debt in % of GDP45.657.153.8...
Current account in % of GDP0.52.9-0.7-2.1-2.0-1.5
FDI inflow, EUR m149761519228420...
Gross external debt in % of GDP59.458.456.2...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2022

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Bernhard Moshammer, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2022
58 pages including 4 Tables and 21 Figures

Details

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POLAND: The fight against inflation set to cause collateral damage

Adam Żurawski
in: Overshadowed by War and Sanctions
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2022, April 2022 , pp. 99-102
Details and Buy


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