Poland

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The GDP decline during Q1 2021 (0.9%) was less than expected. Strong growth in public consumption was the main factor limiting the decline, with rising household consumption and gross fixed capital formation also contributing. Perhaps surprisingly, imports grew much more robustly than exports: foreign trade in goods and services contributed negatively to overall growth. Gross value added rebounded very sharply in industry, but contracted in construction. Rising employment and real wages and clear signs of a rapid acceleration in manufacturing bode well for the second half of 2021: recent data suggest double-digit growth in export sales and export orders (though growth remains more sluggish on the domestic market). In addition, there will be a recovery of investment in fixed assets, and foreign trade is set to produce rising surpluses.

The hefty upturn in inflation (4.7% in May), driven primarily (though not exclusively) by hikes in administered prices, does not seem to be of much concern to the central bank. Despite a very low policy interest rate (0.1%) and large fiscal deficits, the exchange rate is likely to resist depreciation. All in all, we expect a significant recovery over the rest of 2021. We forecast that GDP will grow by 4% over the year as a whole.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201820192020202120222023
Population, 1000 persons384233839738380...
GDP, real change in %5.44.7-2.74.04.54.4
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)214302274022720...
Gross industrial production, real change in %5.94.1-1.2...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average3.93.33.24.04.03.8
Average gross monthly wages, EUR107711441163...
Consumer prices, % p.a.1.22.13.73.53.02.5
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-0.2-0.7-7.0-5.5-4.0-3.0
Public debt in % of GDP48.845.657.5...
Current account in % of GDP-1.30.53.52.51.71.5
FDI inflow, EUR m148091280911228...
Gross external debt in % of GDP63.659.258.1...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2021

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanovic, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2021
42 pages including 4 Tables and 15 Figures

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POLAND: Not bad, in these circumstances

Leon Podkaminer
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 106-109
Details and Buy


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