Poland
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 37899 | 37747 | 36822 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -2.0 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 3.2 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 22860 | 25070 | 28040 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -1.2 | 14.5 | 10.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 3.2 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1176 | 1245 | 1354 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 3.7 | 5.2 | 13.2 | 12.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -6.9 | -1.8 | -3.7 | -4.8 | -4.0 | -3.5 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 57.2 | 53.6 | 49.1 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 2.4 | -1.4 | -3.0 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 16646 | 31371 | 33085 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 58.4 | 56.0 | 53.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2023
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2023
51 pages including 3 Tables, 24 Figures and 1 Box
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: Sailing Through Rough Waters
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2023, April 2023 , pp. I-VI
Details
GDP growth turned negative (-0.2%) in Q1 2023, primarily on account of sharply reduced inventories and private consumption. A strong decline in imports, coupled with resilient exports, limited the recession. Fixed investment, including by the private sector, performed well. Industrial production is continuing to contract sharply. Inflation – currently driven by the cost of food and energy – is still high and is running ahead of nominal wages, which is serving to erode household disposable income and is affecting consumption spending. Meanwhile, the corporate and banking sectors are raking in big profits. To a large extent, inflation continues to reflect certain oligopolistic features of the economy (e.g. its retail and wholesale segments). The unintended strengthening of the Polish currency is contributing to disinflation: overall, inflation (also its core component) is receding gradually, making monetary easing possible this coming autumn. However, we expect inflation to still average 12.5% this year, with real GDP expected to only expand by 1%.