Poland

map Poland
The ‘fourth wave’ of the pandemic currently presents little cause for concern. From a mild decline in GDP, Poland has seen a shift towards recovery. The rising wage bill supports a strong recovery in consumption without jeopardising corporate profitability. Growth in gross fixed capital formation is still inadequate, but industrial production is performing very well. An upturn in inflation has not unduly affected the central bank’s monetary policy. However, the course of fiscal policy remains uncertain. Overall, Poland’s prospects are good, but conflicts with the European Commission need to be resolved.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201820192020202120222023
Population, 1000 persons384233839738324...
GDP, real change in %5.44.7-2.55.34.94.9
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)214202274022640...
Gross industrial production, real change in %5.94.1-1.2...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average3.93.33.23.23.02.9
Average gross monthly wages, EUR107711451163...
Consumer prices, % p.a.1.22.13.75.23.33.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-0.2-0.7-7.1-5.5-4.5-3.0
Public debt in % of GDP48.845.657.4...
Current account in % of GDP-1.30.52.91.02.82.6
FDI inflow, EUR m148091497615192...
Gross external debt in % of GDP63.659.358.4...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Executive summary

Vasily Astrov
in: Recovery Beating Expectations
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2021, October 2021 , pp. I-VI
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Monthly Report No. 9/2021

Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Olga Pindyuk and Leon Podkaminer
wiiw Monthly Report No. 9, September 2021
49 pages including 28 Figures

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