Moldova
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 2596 | 2529 | 2458 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 13.9 | -4.6 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 10020 | 10470 | 11040 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 12.1 | -5.1 | -3.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 3.2 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 429 | 525 | 624 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 5.1 | 28.7 | 13.4 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.9 | -3.2 | -5.2 | -4.8 | -3.8 | -3.5 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 32.6 | 35.0 | 35.3 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -12.4 | -17.1 | -11.9 | -9.7 | -8.9 | -8.1 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 326 | 557 | 386 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 66.7 | 65.4 | 61.5 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2024
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2024
45 pages including 5 Tables and 12 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
The economy emerged from recession in mid-2023, but has not yet achieved sustained take-off. Early 2024 data indicate sluggish growth, based on a modest recovery in household consumption on the back of robust real wage growth (10% in Q1 year on year). However, manufacturing production, investments and the performance of the construction sector were all below the level of Q1 2023. Agricultural production has recovered and could have a positive effect on growth, assuming a good harvest. Exports and imports both contracted in nominal terms, mainly the effect of lower prices. Dependence on the supply of gas from Russia could be replaced by imports from the EU. Due to the low energy prices and still subdued consumption, inflation fell to below the 5% target of the National Bank of Moldova, hovering in the range 3.5-4% in March through May. The base rate was relaxed to 3.6% at the same time, but with a fairly wide ±2 percentage point deposit/credit corridor. Further rate cuts will be constrained by the acceleration of inflation, as consumption recovers. Narrowing the corridor or cutting the deposit requirements could result in some monetary easing to support investment, however. Fiscal and current account deficits are high, but the necessary financing is being provided by international donors and creditors – mainly the International Monetary Fund and the EU. Support is underpinned by the political efforts on the part of Moldova to commence accession negotiations with the EU. Challenges come not only from the domestic anti-EU forces, but also from Russian subversion. In May this year, the EU signed a comprehensive security and defence partnership with Moldova to help combat security challenges. As the situation appears now, the pro-EU forces will win the referendum on EU membership to be held in October. But a favourable outcome to the simultaneous presidential election is less certain. This poses a downside risk to the current forecast, which sees economic growth accelerating from 3% this year to 4% in 2026.