Moldova
While Moldova’s exposure to COVID-19 has been relatively modest, its health system is underdeveloped and the fiscal resources it has at its disposal to deal with the consequences are equally modest. The World Bank, EU and WHO are all providing technical and financial support. GDP is expected to drop by 3% in 2020, and unemployment to jump to 9%. Government actions have mainly come in the form of tax allowances; handouts to business are few and far between. Preferential loans from international institutions and from Russia will cover the country’s external financial needs.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 2755 | 2706 | 2640 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.7 | 4.3 | 3.6 | -3.0 | 3.0 | . |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 6200 | 6600 | 7200 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.1 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 9.0 | 6.0 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 268 | 316 | 356 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 6.5 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 5.0 | . |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -0.6 | -0.8 | -1.4 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 29.1 | 27.2 | 26.3 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -5.7 | -10.6 | -9.7 | -9.0 | -9.0 | . |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 137 | 264 | 530 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 68.0 | 67.6 | 63.1 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Forecasts as of March 2020 considering the effect of COVID-19 with a severe scenario. Due to this uncertain situation we only offer forecasts for GDP.
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures
MOLDOVA: Solid growth amidst political consolidation
Gabor Hunya
in: Uncertainty in Turbulent Times
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2020, March 2020 , pp. 111-114
Details and Buy