Moldova

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In Q1 2021, GDP grew by 1.8% to exceed the 2020 level and compensate for the major COVID-related setback. The economy gained momentum, despite the continuing COVID-related restrictions. Manufacturing production rose by 3% and construction output by 8% year on year. Wages were 10% up in real terms, while employment maintained its 2020 level. An expansion of over 14% in gross fixed capital formation supported GDP growth. The trade deficit widened in Q1 after a temporary contraction last year. In more recent months, the COVID-19 infection rate has declined, despite sluggish vaccination.

We have revised the 2021 growth forecast to 7% (from 4%), assuming that there is no severe lockdown and agriculture recovers from last year’s slump. Inflation may reach 4.5% by the end of the year, triggering a modest rise in the base rate. Improved external conditions – especially a strong recovery in Romania – may boost the economy in the future. Moldova is set to receive a EUR 600m economic recovery package from the EU in the form of aid and credit over a three-year period, conditional on judicial and anti-corruption reforms. If the pro-EU forces win the snap elections scheduled for 11 July, Moldova could finally find an anchor in the West, but retaliation from Russia may prove a challenge.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201820192020202120222023
Population, 1000 persons270826652620...
GDP, real change in %4.33.7-7.07.04.54.0
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)859091308770...
Gross industrial production, real change in %3.72.0-5.5...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average3.65.13.84.03.53.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR316368402...
Consumer prices, % p.a.2.94.83.83.64.24.5
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-0.8-1.4-8.5-5.0-4.0-3.0
Public debt in % of GDP27.225.133.1...
Current account in % of GDP-10.4-9.3-6.7-8.5-8.4-8.0
FDI inflow, EUR m24444855...
Gross external debt in % of GDP66.362.065.2...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2021

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanovic, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2021
42 pages including 4 Tables and 15 Figures

Details

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MOLDOVA: Cumbersome recovery from deep recession

Gabor Hunya
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 94-97
Details and Buy


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