Moldova
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 2529 | 2458 | 2400 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -4.6 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 3.0 | 3.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 10290 | 11570 | 12240 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -5.1 | -3.6 | -1.1 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 3.1 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 525 | 622 | 724 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 28.7 | 13.4 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -3.2 | -5.1 | -3.9 | -5.0 | -4.5 | -4.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 35.0 | 34.9 | 38.1 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -17.1 | -11.3 | -16.0 | -20.0 | -18.0 | -16.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 557 | 330 | 308 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 65.3 | 58.9 | 58.1 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2025
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2025
38 pages including 5 Tables and 3 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
Moldova’s only hope of avoiding stagnation in 2025 would seem to be a protracted spell of normal weather, leading to an upsurge in agricultural output. January’s forced shift away from Gazprom to costlier suppliers of gas to Transnistria triggered an electricity price shock that derailed the earlier, more positive, growth trajectory. In Q1, industrial output contracted, the trade deficit widened and real wages remained virtually flat – all signs of a shrinking GDP, though investment and government spending probably did offset this trend in a modest way. Electricity imports surged, while agri-food exports slumped in the wake of the disastrous 2024 harvest. The 80% jump in electricity tariffs in January is expected to push inflation to about 8% in 2025, up from 4.7% last year. The National Bank of Moldova responded with a 2 percentage point hike in its policy rate, to 6.5% in Q1, and it may be able to avoid any further increases. Both the current account and the fiscal deficits have widened, and the country will continue to depend on institutional external financing. Some improvement may emerge in the second half of the year, as European donors take over from USAID – always assuming that the harvest is back to normal. The European Commission has pledged a multiannual EUR 1.9bn support programme to help steer Moldova toward EU accession, though only the EUR 300m pre-financing tranche will have reached the treasury by the time of the parliamentary elections scheduled for 28 September. Public sentiment has cooled toward the ruling, pro-EU Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), which has struggled to deliver visible economic improvements against a headwind of Russian interference. A broader coalition – one that neither blocks nor aggressively promotes EU integration – could nevertheless continue the reform process after the vote.