Moldova
The poorest country in Europe also has the highest figures for COVID-19 infections and fatalities in relation to population. Fiscal policy has very limited scope to mitigate the impact of the crisis from the country’s own revenues. The government needs to rely on foreign agencies for financing (although these impose conditions that are difficult to meet) and has to maintain a balanced relationship with Russia and the EU. Economic decline of at least 7% in 2020 will be followed by a slow recovery in coming years.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 2755 | 2706 | 2663 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.7 | 4.3 | 3.6 | -7.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 7980 | 8330 | 8870 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.6 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 6.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 268 | 316 | 368 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 6.5 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 5.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -0.6 | -0.8 | -1.4 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 29.1 | 27.2 | 25.1 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -5.7 | -10.4 | -9.3 | -6.5 | -6.8 | -7.5 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 133 | 244 | 448 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 66.7 | 66.3 | 62.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
MOLDOVA: Dependent on aid from both East and West
Gabor Hunya
in: No Quick Recovery in Sight, with Coronavirus Risks Looming Large
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2020, November 2020 , pp. 85-88
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures