Moldova
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 2635 | 2615 | 2600 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -8.3 | 13.9 | -5.9 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 8200 | 10210 | 9860 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -5.5 | 12.1 | -5.1 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 3.8 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 402 | 429 | 521 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 3.8 | 5.1 | 28.7 | 14.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -5.3 | -1.9 | -3.3 | -5.0 | -4.5 | -4.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 34.2 | 32.6 | 33.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -7.7 | -12.4 | -13.7 | -12.0 | -10.0 | -8.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 138 | 331 | 380 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 65.5 | 66.9 | 68.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 3/2023
Vasily Astrov, Chiara Castelli, Javier Flórez Mendoza, Oliver Reiter and Shahab Sharfaei
wiiw Monthly Report No. 3, March 2023
33 pages including 7 Tables and 5 Figures
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Executive summary
Branimir Jovanović
in: Bracing for the Winter
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2022, October 2022 , pp. I-VIII
Details
The economy contracted sharply in the second half of 2022 and will only emerge slowly from recession in 2023. Eroding real incomes, falling private consumption and declining investment are all consequences of the power shortage and the surging prices of energy and food. The government has passed the elevated cost of energy onto households, though it has provided some compensation to those in greatest need. International and bilateral donors almost trebled their financial support in 2022 to about 5% of GDP, which enabled the country to survive. Similar donor efforts are expected in 2023; but in addition, external conditions may improve and the harvest could be better. Lower gas prices on the international markets may bring some relief, but that depends on Gazprom sticking to the agreed price mechanism. The country thus remains vulnerable to Russian policy on gas supplies, since replacing Russian imports with Western sources will take over a year to complete. We expect a recovery in industrial and agricultural output and a moderation of inflation and interest rates to help the economy in the second half of 2023. The years ahead could see an upturn, provided the situation in Ukraine improves and Moldova makes progress in implementing reforms designed to bring it closer to EU standards.