Moldova
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 2635 | 2596 | 2539 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -8.3 | 13.9 | -5.0 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 8200 | 10020 | 10180 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -5.5 | 12.1 | -5.1 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 3.8 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 402 | 429 | 525 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 3.8 | 5.1 | 28.7 | 14.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -5.3 | -1.9 | -3.2 | -4.5 | -3.5 | -3.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 34.2 | 32.6 | 35.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -7.7 | -12.4 | -15.7 | -14.5 | -12.5 | -11.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 138 | 331 | 562 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 65.4 | 66.9 | 64.5 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2023
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2023
51 pages including 3 Tables, 24 Figures and 1 Box
publication_icon
Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: Sailing Through Rough Waters
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2023, April 2023 , pp. I-VI
Details
In 2023, Moldova will emerge slowly from the difficulties that in 2022 brought economic contraction: the energy crisis, soaring inflation and a drop in agricultural production. However, in Q1 2023 it had not yet turned the corner, so that quarter saw a fall in industrial production and real wages. With support from Romanian companies and loans from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), there has been an acceleration in energy diversification away from Russian gas. Inflation is on its way down, but is still close to 20%: the base effect and lower international commodity prices will support a fall to single digits by the end of the year. International donors have stepped up their assistance, realising that the country is in dire economic straits and subject to Russian hybrid warfare. Nonetheless, Moldova is committed to fulfilling the conditions of EU alignment. The influx of foreign financing will allow it to survive with large current account and fiscal deficits and to attain modest growth of 2.5% in 2023. Moldova has taken steps to withdraw from some of the institutions of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) that were perpetuating Russian influence. Full withdrawal is not on the agenda, however, as Moldova derives economic benefits from cooperating with some member countries.