Moldova
Economic growth is expected to continue at last year’s pace of about 4% based on a strong momentum of investments and structural change. Fiscal and current account imbalances, which pose high risks, are manageable at a slower rate of economic growth of around 3.5% in the coming years. The government formed in early June can solidify its power with international support and start institutional reforms. But snap elections and street riots imposing risks to foreign investors cannot be ruled out.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 2802 | 2755 | 2706 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 4700 | 4800 | 5200 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 0.9 | 3.4 | 3.7 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 227 | 268 | 319 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 6.5 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 4.3 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.6 | -0.6 | -0.8 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 31.8 | 29.1 | 27.2 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -3.5 | -5.7 | -10.6 | -9.5 | -7.6 | -7.4 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 80 | 137 | 264 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 81.3 | 68.0 | 67.7 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 6/2019
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Hermine Vidovic and Goran Vuksic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2019
27 pages including 24 Tables and 1 Figure
MOLDOVA: Solid growth with prospects with elevated risks
Gabor Hunya
in: Moving Into the Slow Lane
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2019, March 2019 , pp. 108-111
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