Moldova
Growth has resumed, thanks to the good weather. After stagnating in H1 2025, GDP grew by 5.2% in Q3 year on year; that makes 2% for Q1-Q3. Value added in agriculture grew by 15% in Q3 year on year, contributing 2.1 percentage point (pp) to GDP growth, and construction grew by 8.3%, which contributed 0.8pp. Good weather allowed for abundant crop yields, which boosted food production and exports. An inflow of foreign financing, both aid and credit, fuelled investment. The energy supply stabilised after the supply shock of January 2025. Meanwhile, the country has gained independence from Russian gas imports. It is investing heavily in new interconnections with the EU, as well as in renewable energy. Economic growth is set to strengthen in 2026. Investment will increase, financed by cheap credit and donations, including the EU’s EUR 1.9bn Reform and Growth Facility (3.5% of GDP annually for three years). The performance of agriculture – which is heavily dependent on the weather – is a downside risk to the forecast.
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FORECAST* |
| Main Economic Indicators | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 2458 | 2402 | . | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 1.2 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 3.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 11510 | 11890 | . | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -3.6 | -1.1 | . | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.6 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 622 | 727 | . | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 13.4 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -5.1 | -3.9 | -4.2 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -4.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 34.9 | 38.1 | 39.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -11.1 | -16.6 | -21.0 | -18.0 | -17.0 | -16.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 334 | 424 | . | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 59.0 | 58.7 | 59.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 1/2026
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2026
58 pages including 6 Tables and 15 Figures
Details
publication_icon
Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
Growth has resumed, thanks to the good weather. After stagnating in H1 2025, GDP grew by 5.2% in Q3 year on year; that makes 2% for Q1-Q3. Value added in agriculture grew by 15% in Q3 year on year, contributing 2.1 percentage point (pp) to GDP growth, and construction grew by 8.3%, which contributed 0.8pp. Good weather allowed for abundant crop yields, which boosted food production and exports. An inflow of foreign financing, both aid and credit, fuelled investment. The energy supply stabilised after the supply shock of January 2025. Meanwhile, the country has gained independence from Russian gas imports. It is investing heavily in new interconnections with the EU, as well as in renewable energy. Economic growth is set to strengthen in 2026. Investment will increase, financed by cheap credit and donations, including the EU’s EUR 1.9bn Reform and Growth Facility (3.5% of GDP annually for three years). The performance of agriculture – which is heavily dependent on the weather – is a downside risk to the forecast.
