Moldova

map Moldova
Economic growth resumed from Q3 2023 and is expected to remain fairly upbeat over the coming years. Sharp disinflation has helped household consumption to recover, but investment is still lagging behind. A good harvest in 2023 has had a positive impact on incomes, exports and food production in the short run, but the country’s vulnerability to weather conditions remains a permanent challenge. Moldova has managed to switch its trade flows, including energy supplies, from Russia to the West, which has provided an important anchor of stability. Multinational institutions are financing much of the fiscal and current account deficits and support the country in strengthening the rule of law and in combating poverty. Central bank interventions kept the local currency stable as part of the policy to combat inflation in 2023. Curbing the current account deficit may be a more important target in the future, which would require some depreciation. The war in neighbouring Ukraine and Russian subversion in Moldova pose a constant threat to the country and represent a downside risk to the forecast. The country’s Western orientation will be challenged in the presidential election and in a referendum on EU integration towards the end of 2024. The current leadership should survive if its reform measures produce rapid progress towards greater transparency, less corruption and higher living standards. Should it lose – which seems rather less likely now – the country would rein in its EU membership ambitions, receive less Western support and face slower growth prospects.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202120222023202420252026
Population, 1000 persons259625392580...
GDP, real change in %13.9-4.60.73.73.43.8
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)100201043010510...
Gross industrial production, real change in %12.1-5.1-3.6...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average3.23.14.64.03.73.5
Average gross monthly wages, EUR429525624...
Consumer prices, % p.a.5.128.713.46.05.04.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-1.9-3.2-5.2-5.0-4.0-4.0
Public debt in % of GDP32.635.036.0...
Current account in % of GDP-12.4-17.1-11.9-8.0-7.0-7.0
FDI inflow, EUR m326557386...
Gross external debt in % of GDP66.765.461.5...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2024

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2024
50 pages including 5 Tables and 18 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Branimir Jovanović
in: Beneath the Veneer of Calm
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2023, October 2023 , pp. I-VI
Details


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