Moldova
Assuming average meteorological conditions, GDP growth in 2026 is projected to slow to 1.9%, from 2.4% last year. While investment in infrastructure and equipment remains robust, Q1 data indicate a contraction in residential construction. Industrial production rebounded in March, following winter contractions caused by energy bottlenecks; future expansion will be supported by investment in equipment, but will remain constrained by labour shortages. Inflationary pressures have intensified owing to rising global fuel and commodity prices. To cushion these macroeconomic shocks, the government has increased fiscal expenditure through targeted subsidies covering household energy consumption and the agricultural sector. Consequently, the fiscal and current account deficits remain elevated, though they continue to be sustainably financed via external capital inflows.
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FORECAST* |
| Main Economic Indicators | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 2429 | 2402 | 2377 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 1.2 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.3 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 11650 | 11890 | 12650 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -3.6 | -1.1 | 5.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.6 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 622 | 727 | 786 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 13.4 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 4.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -5.1 | -3.9 | -4.0 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -4.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 34.9 | 38.1 | 38.1 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -11.1 | -16.5 | -19.7 | -18.0 | -17.1 | -16.1 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 334 | 424 | 408 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 59.0 | 58.7 | 56.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2026
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Ioannis Gutzianas, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Isilda Mara, Michał Możdżeń, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2026
52 pages including 5 Tables
Details
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
Assuming average meteorological conditions, GDP growth in 2026 is projected to slow to 1.9%, from 2.4% last year. While investment in infrastructure and equipment remains robust, Q1 data indicate a contraction in residential construction. Industrial production rebounded in March, following winter contractions caused by energy bottlenecks; future expansion will be supported by investment in equipment, but will remain constrained by labour shortages. Inflationary pressures have intensified owing to rising global fuel and commodity prices. To cushion these macroeconomic shocks, the government has increased fiscal expenditure through targeted subsidies covering household energy consumption and the agricultural sector. Consequently, the fiscal and current account deficits remain elevated, though they continue to be sustainably financed via external capital inflows.
