Moldova

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Growth is expected to remain moderate this year (1.7%), supported by donor-financed investment and EU-oriented reforms, but it is constrained by weak manufacturing performance and labour shortages. Inflation may rise again in H1 2026 due to higher energy prices, limiting monetary easing. Fiscal and external deficits will stay elevated but financed externally. Adverse risks stem from energy supply, weather and regional tensions, while stronger export capacity and energy independence are key to any medium-term improvement.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202320242025202620272028
Population, 1000 persons245824022400...
GDP, real change in %1.20.12.51.73.03.7
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)115101189012530...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-3.6-1.15.4...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average4.64.03.83.83.63.5
Average gross monthly wages, EUR622727786...
Consumer prices, % p.a.13.44.77.85.84.54.5
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-5.1-3.9-4.0-4.5-4.5-4.0
Public debt in % of GDP34.938.138.1...
Current account in % of GDP-11.1-16.6-19.7-17.4-16.4-15.0
FDI inflow, EUR m334424408...
Gross external debt in % of GDP59.058.756.0...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2026

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2026
58 pages including 6 Tables and 15 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details


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