Moldova
The 7% drop in GDP in 2020 was mainly the result of contracting household demand and an extremely bad harvest. Official employment and unemployment both declined, as people were forced into irregular work. Economic growth will resume in 2021 (+4%), but slow progress in vaccination will delay a full recovery to the pre-crisis level. Surprisingly low inflation will not be sustainable once the economy starts growing.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 2706 | 2663 | 2600 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.3 | 3.7 | -7.0 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 3.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 8330 | 8870 | 8580 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 3.7 | 2.0 | -5.5 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 316 | 368 | 410 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.9 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 5.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -0.8 | -1.4 | -5.2 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 27.2 | 25.1 | 33.1 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -10.4 | -9.3 | -6.7 | -9.0 | -8.4 | -7.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 244 | 448 | 55 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 66.3 | 62.0 | 65.2 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
MOLDOVA: Cumbersome recovery from deep recession
Gabor Hunya
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 94-97
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures