Hungary
Hungary’s GDP dropped by 5% in 2020, due mostly to declining net exports, but also, to a smaller extent, to shrinking investment and household consumption. The key issues for a recovery are the early revitalisation of international value chains in the automotive industry, resilience of the small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) sector and restoration of the pre-crisis spending propensity of households. The political stakes are high in the wake of the government’s growing confrontation with the EU and the approaching elections, scheduled for early 2022.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 9776 | 9771 | 9750 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 5.4 | 4.6 | -5.0 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 4.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 21580 | 22810 | 22690 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 3.5 | 5.6 | -6.2 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 3.7 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1035 | 1131 | 1149 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.9 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.1 | -2.1 | -9.0 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 69.1 | 65.4 | 77.8 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 0.3 | -0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 6606 | 2345 | 695 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 78.8 | 71.6 | 78.5 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
HUNGARY: Recovery with strong downside risks
Sandor Richter
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 73-76
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures