Hungary
GDP growth in the first quarter of 2017 was stronger than expected. Investment has been the main driver of the expansion, supported by a moderate increase of consumption despite a strong rise in wages and also by a positive contribution from net exports. Annual GDP growth is expected to reach around 4% this year. After only marginal consumer price rises in 2014-2016, inflation is back: the annual rise in consumer prices may amount to 2.9% in 2017.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| Population, 1000 persons. | 9866 | 9843 | 9814 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.0 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.3 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 18700 | 19700 | 19500 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 7.7 | 7.4 | 1.0 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 7.7 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 770 | 800 | 845 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.1 | -1.6 | -1.9 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 75.7 | 74.7 | 74.1 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 2.1 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.8 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 7093 | 6682 | -7318 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 114.9 | 107.5 | 96.8 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2017
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2017
27 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures
HUNGARY: Thriving household consumption pushes the economy onto a higher growth path
Sandor Richter
in: Cautious Upturn in CESEE: Haunted by the Spectre of Uncertainty
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2017, March 2017 , pp. 72-76
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