Hungary
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 9750 | 9710 | 9643 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -4.5 | 7.2 | 4.6 | -0.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 22380 | 24380 | 27260 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -6.0 | 9.6 | 6.1 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.6 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1114 | 1188 | 1278 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 3.4 | 5.2 | 15.3 | 18.5 | 6.0 | 3.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -7.5 | -7.2 | -6.2 | -4.5 | -4.0 | -3.3 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 79.3 | 76.6 | 73.3 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -1.1 | -4.1 | -8.1 | -4.0 | -2.8 | -2.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 3153 | 7304 | 11404 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 81.1 | 84.7 | 88.2 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2023
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2023
51 pages including 3 Tables, 24 Figures and 1 Box
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: Sailing Through Rough Waters
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2023, April 2023 , pp. I-VI
Details
GDP fell by 1% in Q1 2023 – largely the result of a decline in industry and construction; meanwhile services saw a slight growth. Consumption and investment both decreased in Q1, while net exports performed well. Inflation has continued to slow, but it remains far and away the highest in the EU, at over 20% in May. Real wages fell by close to 7% in April, year on year. With the government struggling to keep the fiscal deficit under control, new taxes have been introduced, while others have not been phased out (as earlier promised). The central bank has embarked cautiously on monetary easing: the caution is warranted, as the currently relatively strong forint could weaken dangerously if the markets feel the interest-rate cuts are coming too soon or are too large. Tensions with the EU are continuing to escalate, and the release of suspended EU transfers may be further delayed. This, together with the anticipated reduction in consumption and investment, explains why our forecast for the country’s growth prospects this year remains unchanged (a decline in GDP of 0.5%), despite external balances that are improving thanks to lower energy prices.