Hungary
The Hungarian economy expanded by 4.8% in Q2 of 2018, reaching the zenith of the current business cycle. Growth has been driven by the extraordinarily rapid utilisation of EU cohesion policy resources. This high growth rate cannot be sustained in the next three years. A sharp decrease in EU transfers from next year on will remove an important driver of growth and there is no comparable substitute for that in sight.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 9843 | 9814 | 9788 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.5 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 2.3 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 19800 | 19500 | 20300 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 7.4 | 0.9 | 4.7 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 6.8 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 800 | 845 | 961 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 0.1 | 0.4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.9 | -1.7 | -2.2 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 76.6 | 75.9 | 73.3 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 2.8 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 6966 | -6158 | 6546 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 107.6 | 97.1 | 84.6 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 11/2018
Richard Grieveson, Mario Holzner, Stefan Jestl, Isilda Mara and Roman Stöllinger
wiiw Monthly Report No. 11, November 2018
49 pages including 16 Figures
HUNGARY: At the turning point of the business cycle
Sandor Richter
in: Strong Growth Amid Increased Negative Risks
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2018, November 2018 , pp. 88-91
Details and Buy