Hungary

Economic growth has accelerated compared to the previous year. The main drivers are investment and household consumption. The foreign trade balance started to deteriorate, but the trade surplus is still significant and will remain so over the forecast horizon. The sharp increase in wages will stimulate domestic demand, but productivity growth is lagging and may increasingly become a problem for firms, primarily for SMEs. According to the Hungarian Central Bank, introduction of the euro will only be feasible if Hungary’s per capita GDP and wages attain 90% of the EU average; this rules out euro adoption, even in the medium term.

map Hungary
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201420152016201720182019
Population, 1000 persons986698439814...
GDP, real change in %4.23.42.24.03.93.0
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)188001990019800...
Gross industrial production, real change in %7.77.41.0...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average7.76.85.14.34.34.3
Average gross monthly wages, EUR770800845...
Consumer prices, % p.a.0.00.10.42.52.82.9
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-2.8-2.0-1.9...
Public debt in % of GDP75.274.773.9...
Current account in % of GDP1.53.56.14.34.03.2
FDI inflow, EUR mn71346667-7140...
Gross external debt in % of GDP114.7107.196.2...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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HUNGARY: Euro introduction is far far away

Sandor Richter
in: CESEE Back on Track to Convergence
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2017, November 2017 , pp. 74-77
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2017

Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2017
27 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures

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