Hungary

map Hungary
In the first half of 2024, the performance of the economy was disappointing. The main driver of growth, household consumption, increased by much less than might have been expected from real wage growth of nearly 10%. Investment fell and only net exports improved. Annual growth will be around 1.2% for 2024. In 2025 and 2026, consolidation of the budget will necessitate further painful measures. That will permit only a modest acceleration of growth. The downside risks are high: the elections due in 2026 bring with them the danger of a repetition of the irresponsible fiscal spending via ‘election sweeties’. And the consequences of that would be a surge in inflation, a marked weakening of the currency and a deterioration in the country’s fiscal position.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202120222023202420252026
Population, 1000 persons963196059592...
GDP, real change in %7.14.3-0.91.22.23.1
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)247302724028770...
Gross industrial production, real change in %9.66.1-5.5...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average4.13.64.14.54.24.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR118812781496...
Consumer prices, % p.a.5.215.317.03.93.93.5
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-7.1-6.2-6.7-5.0-4.0-3.5
Public debt in % of GDP76.273.873.4...
Current account in % of GDP-4.1-8.50.72.12.32.5
FDI inflow, EUR m8652140473253...
Gross external debt in % of GDP86.591.885.9...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2024

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2024
45 pages including 5 Tables and 12 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
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