Hungary
The country’s crisis management efforts consist primarily of a big reshuffle of budgetary expenditure and revenue, but the real fiscal stimulus will be only 1-2% of GDP. The government is introducing a limited version of income replacement subsidy. There is a moratorium on the repayment of both household and business loans. wiiw expects a decline in GDP of 5.5% in 2020, with 2% growth in 2021. The fiscal deficit will amount to at least 5% relative to GDP. The HUF will remain volatile and weak.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 9788 | 9776 | 9771 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.3 | 5.4 | 4.6 | -5.5 | 2.0 | . |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 20390 | 21830 | 23110 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 4.7 | 3.5 | 5.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.2 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 10.0 | 7.0 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 961 | 1035 | 1131 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.4 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 3.0 | . |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.4 | -2.1 | -2.0 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 72.2 | 69.1 | 65.3 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 2.0 | 0.3 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | . |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 7083 | 8937 | -294 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 83.2 | 79.4 | 72.4 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Due to the unusually high level of uncertainty caused by COVID-19, we only present forecasts for 2020-2021.
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures
HUNGARY: After three years of high growth, what next?
Sandor Richter
in: Uncertainty in Turbulent Times
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2020, March 2020 , pp. 91-94
Details and Buy