Hungary
Hungarian economic growth was strong in the first half of 2019, but the signs of a deceleration are already discernible. In Q2 compared to Q1, investment growth slowed notably, while the external environment deteriorated. From next year, EU transfers will drop by a substantial degree, further weighing on investment. Labour shortages will remain problematic, and put further upward pressure on wages. We expect a significant slowdown of economic growth over the forecast horizon, from 4.3% this year to 3.1% in 2020 and to 2.6% in 2021.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 9788 | 9776 | 9720 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.3 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 2.6 | . |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 20600 | 21900 | 23500 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 4.7 | 3.5 | 5.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.2 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 961 | 1035 | 1129 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.4 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | . |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.4 | -2.3 | -1.7 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 72.9 | 70.2 | 69.1 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 2.3 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.1 | . |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 7208 | 8469 | 3655 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 84.1 | 80.1 | 75.3 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
HUNGARY: Clear signs of decelerating growth
Sandor Richter
in: Braced for Fallout from Global Slowdown
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2019, November 2019 , pp. 68-71
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 10/2019
Richard Grieveson, Julia Grübler, Sebastian Petric and Leon Podkaminer
wiiw Monthly Report No. 10, October 2019
42 pages including 29 Figures