Hungary
In Q1 2026, Hungary’s GDP increased by 1.7% year on year, a remarkable acceleration by comparison with any quarter of the previous year. This is due to robust expansion in both household and government consumption – a consequence of the previous Orbán administration’s pre-election handouts. The new Tisza government has inherited an unsustainable fiscal position, and consolidation will necessitate the setting of strict priorities in its ambitious election promises. The markets’ response to the election results has been positive, attested by the strengthening of the currency and lower yields on government bonds. The GKI Research consumer confidence index has climbed to a 49-month high. Over the forecast horizon, economic growth is expected to take off gradually, driven by the recovery in investment, thanks to the anticipated resumption of EU transfers.
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FORECAST* |
| Main Economic Indicators | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 9592 | 9562 | 9530 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 28970 | 30450 | 31720 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -5.5 | -4.1 | -3.1 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.1 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1497 | 1636 | 1772 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 17.0 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 3.1 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -7.0 | -5.1 | -4.7 | -6.6 | -4.7 | -3.7 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 73.3 | 73.5 | 74.6 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 0.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 4397 | 3077 | 6737 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 86.2 | 85.7 | 88.2 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2026
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Ioannis Gutzianas, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Isilda Mara, Michał Możdżeń, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2026
52 pages including 5 Tables
Details
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
In Q1 2026, Hungary’s GDP increased by 1.7% year on year, a remarkable acceleration by comparison with any quarter of the previous year. This is due to robust expansion in both household and government consumption – a consequence of the previous Orbán administration’s pre-election handouts. The new Tisza government has inherited an unsustainable fiscal position, and consolidation will necessitate the setting of strict priorities in its ambitious election promises. The markets’ response to the election results has been positive, attested by the strengthening of the currency and lower yields on government bonds. The GKI Research consumer confidence index has climbed to a 49-month high. Over the forecast horizon, economic growth is expected to take off gradually, driven by the recovery in investment, thanks to the anticipated resumption of EU transfers.
