Hungary

map Hungary
Since mid-2021, the Hungarian economy has undergone a period of overheating that was intimately bound up with the extended campaign leading up to the parliamentary elections on 3 April. The excessive deployment of ‘election goodies’ by the government has resulted in large current account and fiscal deficits, rising inflation and a weak forint. Now that the election has been won, Prime Minister Orbán will have to deal with the unpopular task of economic consolidation. A relatively soft landing would require the country to gain access to the EU transfers from the Recovery and Resilience Facility, but the ongoing conflict with the EU over the ‘rule of law’ (primarily corruption related) renders this doubtful. Economic growth is expected to slow this year, to the range of 2-3%.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201920202021202220232024
Population, 1000 persons977197509710...
GDP, real change in %4.6-4.57.12.53.94.5
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)228002223024520...
Gross industrial production, real change in %5.6-6.09.7...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average3.44.34.13.93.83.5
Average gross monthly wages, EUR113111491224...
Consumer prices, % p.a.3.43.45.29.05.03.5
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-2.1-7.8-6.8-5.5-3.5-3.0
Public debt in % of GDP65.579.676.8...
Current account in % of GDP-0.7-1.1-3.1-2.9-1.6-0.1
FDI inflow, EUR m288228795067...
Gross external debt in % of GDP72.680.082.3...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Executive summary

Vasily Astrov
in: Overshadowed by War and Sanctions
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2022, April 2022 , pp. I-VII
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Monthly Report No. 1/2022

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Marcus How, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2022
58 pages including 4 Tables and 21 Figures

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