Hungary
Economic growth has been driven by domestic demand. Beside strong investment growth also household consumption expanded more rapidly than the GDP. In trade of goods the expansion of imports exceeded to a large extent that of the exports. The strong dependence on EU transfers, a characteristic feature of the current growth path, makes it likely that the expected huge drop in EU supported investments in 2019-2022 will significantly deteriorate Hungary’s growth prospects.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 9814 | 9788 | 9771 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 19500 | 20300 | 22000 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 0.9 | 4.7 | 3.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.1 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 845 | 961 | 1035 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 0.4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.7 | -2.2 | -2.2 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 76.0 | 73.4 | 70.8 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | -6135 | 6911 | 5967 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 97.4 | 85.1 | 80.5 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
HUNGARY: Strong domestic demand driven growth on the back of EU transfers
Sandor Richter
in: Moving Into the Slow Lane
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2019, March 2019 , pp. 88-91
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 1/2019
Richard Grieveson, Julia Grübler, Peter Havlik and Roman Stöllinger
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2019
42 pages including 23 Figures