Hungary
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 9592 | 9562 | 9530 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.8 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 29000 | 30430 | 31650 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -5.5 | -4.1 | -3.1 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.1 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1497 | 1636 | 1772 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 17.0 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.1 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -6.8 | -5.0 | -5.3 | -5.0 | -4.0 | -3.5 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 73.2 | 73.5 | 74.7 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -0.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 4515 | 2915 | 6907 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 86.1 | 85.4 | 86.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 03/2026
Vasily Astrov, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Ioannis Gutzianas, Nadya Heger, Mario Holzner and Olga Pindyuk
wiiw Monthly Report No. 03, March 2026
31 pages including 1 Table and 5 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
The spectacular take-off envisaged by the government for 2025 did not come about. Data on Q4 suggest that annual GDP growth may have amounted to only 0.3%. Weak foreign demand for vehicles and batteries – flagship sectors of the Hungarian industry – resulted in a contraction of their output. The inauguration of large FDI projects in these sectors has been subject to delay, and initial output in 2026 may turn out to be substantially lower than originally planned. On the production side, growth has been driven by services, and on the demand side by private consumption and inventory accumulation. In the first 11 months of 2025, exports declined while imports increased, despite a considerable improvement in the terms of trade. In 2026 we will witness a year of two halves, with the surge in pre-election handouts fuelling private consumption in H1, followed in H2 by the start of consolidation of the runaway fiscal deficit, which will suppress demand. All in all, real GDP is projected to expand by 2.2% this year.