Slovenia
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 2102 | 2108 | 2112 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -4.2 | 8.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 26780 | 29190 | 31460 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -5.3 | 10.3 | 1.2 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1856 | 1970 | 2024 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | -0.3 | 2.0 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 2.8 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -7.7 | -4.6 | -3.1 | -3.9 | -2.6 | -2.2 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 79.6 | 74.4 | 72.3 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 7.2 | 3.3 | -1.0 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 446 | 1856 | 2051 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 102.1 | 97.4 | 90.9 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2023
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2023
51 pages including 3 Tables, 24 Figures and 1 Box
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: Sailing Through Rough Waters
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2023, April 2023 , pp. I-VI
Details
Our expectations for 2023 remain fairly optimistic: we forecast real GDP to grow by 1.4%, outstripping most EU-CEE countries. While there are worrying signs in the economic performance of key trading partners, we expect private consumption and public investment to drive a modest level of growth, mainly through construction. Trade in goods is likely to contract over the summer, but trade in services will expand, as tourism continues to bounce back after the pandemic. Inflation will remain high, but it has witnessed a slowdown, falling to around 8% in May. Energy prices have cooled considerably, but food, housing and services are still contributing to monthly inflation. For 2023, we expect inflation of 6.6%, followed by 3.6% in 2024. The jobs market will remain tight, with historically low unemployment of 3.9% in 2023 and a growth in nominal wages of 4%. The government’s ability to push through critical reforms in areas such as health care and public-sector salaries will be the key story for 2023. These long-awaited reforms will also have major implications for the budget and for Slovenia’s welfare model.