Slovenia
In Q1 2026, the economy picked up by 3% year on year. In part this is thanks to the low statistical basis (in Q1 2025 growth was negative), as well as to lower-than-expected inflation (2.7% on an annual basis). However, this pace of expansion will not be sustained. For the full year, GDP growth is expected to reach 1.9%, driven mostly by private consumption and government spending, reflecting investment in infrastructure, post-flood reconstruction and EU-funded projects. A modest recovery of 3.7% is projected in private investment, though energy price volatility and rising labour costs are weighing on business confidence. By contrast, exports are likely to grow by only 2.2% – more slowly than imports. Due to export-related headwinds, we have also revised our GDP growth forecast for 2027 slightly downwards, to 2.3%.
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FORECAST* |
| Main Economic Indicators | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 2120 | 2127 | 2130 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 35070 | 36120 | 37690 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -5.6 | -1.0 | -1.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 2221 | 2395 | 2536 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 7.2 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.6 | -0.9 | -2.5 | -2.3 | -2.1 | -2.1 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 68.3 | 66.4 | 65.7 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 4.8 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 1399 | 1722 | 1628 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 90.5 | 87.9 | 88.9 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2026
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Ioannis Gutzianas, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Isilda Mara, Michał Możdżeń, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2026
52 pages including 5 Tables
Details
publication_icon
Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
In Q1 2026, the economy picked up by 3% year on year. In part this is thanks to the low statistical basis (in Q1 2025 growth was negative), as well as to lower-than-expected inflation (2.7% on an annual basis). However, this pace of expansion will not be sustained. For the full year, GDP growth is expected to reach 1.9%, driven mostly by private consumption and government spending, reflecting investment in infrastructure, post-flood reconstruction and EU-funded projects. A modest recovery of 3.7% is projected in private investment, though energy price volatility and rising labour costs are weighing on business confidence. By contrast, exports are likely to grow by only 2.2% – more slowly than imports. Due to export-related headwinds, we have also revised our GDP growth forecast for 2027 slightly downwards, to 2.3%.
