Slovenia

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Slovenia experienced a protracted second wave of COVID-19, with persistently high rates of infection until April 2021. Still, GDP grew by 1.6% in Q1 2021 year on year, helped by an uptick in fixed capital investments, especially in machinery and equipment (up by 7.6%). By the end of June, most of the restrictions had been removed and the government had started to revoke support measures. Private consumption has also started to grow since April. Thus, the growth projection for 2021 has been revised upwards, from 3.6% to 4%. Mostly due to rising energy prices, we have revised our forecast for inflation in 2021 to 1.7% (up from 1.3%). Politically, the government occupies a weak position in parliament and is facing domestic protests. It also continues to quarrel with EU institutions, on the eve of the country assuming the presidency of the EU Council.

In 2022, we expect the economy to grow by 4.3%, as private spending and investments return to pre-crisis levels and the first effects of the Recovery and Resilience Facility spending (EUR 2.5 billion) are felt. Services are also due for a rebound and unemployment will drop to below 5%. Inflation is not projected to accelerate further, although increasing employment will put some pressure on consumer prices.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201820192020202120222023
Population, 1000 persons207420882102...
GDP, real change in %4.43.3-4.24.04.33.4
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)264102766026770...
Gross industrial production, real change in %5.13.1-5.3...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average5.14.55.05.24.54.3
Average gross monthly wages, EUR168217541856...
Consumer prices, % p.a.1.91.7-0.31.71.71.6
Fiscal balance in % of GDP0.70.4-8.3-5.2-3.3-0.8
Public debt in % of GDP70.365.679.8...
Current account in % of GDP5.85.67.16.35.95.6
FDI inflow, EUR m13071919431...
Gross external debt in % of GDP91.991.5101.9...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2021

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanovic, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2021
42 pages including 4 Tables and 15 Figures

Details

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SLOVENIA: Economic resilience in light of a disastrous second wave

Niko Korpar
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 127-130
Details and Buy


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