Slovenia
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 2102 | 2108 | . | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -4.3 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 2.9 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 26770 | 29160 | . | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -5.3 | 10.3 | 1.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1856 | 1970 | 2024 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | -0.3 | 2.0 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 2.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -7.7 | -4.7 | -3.8 | -3.7 | -4.2 | -3.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 79.6 | 74.5 | . | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 7.6 | 3.8 | -0.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 446 | 1795 | 1642 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 102.1 | 97.3 | 87.8 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 1/2023
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2023
44 pages including 4 Tables and 16 Figures
publication_icon
Executive summary
Branimir Jovanović
in: Bracing for the Winter
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2022, October 2022 , pp. I-VIII
Details
Although we expect growth to slow significantly in 2023, compared to the previous two years, it will still be well above the EU average. The war in Ukraine and inflation will have a profoundly negative impact on Slovenia, keeping growth very subdued at least in Q1 2023, with private spending well down on 2022. The government has introduced a record high, pro-investment budget for 2023, so fiscal spending will contribute to growth. Exports will keep contracting until Q2 2023, and the growth of imports is again expected to exceed that of exports this year. Inflation will slow somewhat, but will still reach 6.5% in 2023, fuelled mainly by price hikes for food and services. Having signed a gas provision contract with Algeria in November 2022, Slovenia is close to fully replacing imports of Russian gas. The government has implemented various measures to support struggling businesses and households, including a cap on electricity prices for SMEs. Should foreign demand (particularly German) remain robust, industrial output will grow by a solid 2.2% this year.