Slovenia

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Slovenia’s economy has outpaced expectations, expanding by 4.1% year on year in H1 2026. The acceleration in growth was broad based, but it rested on a coincidence of largely temporary factors, above all a surge in public investment. We forecast GDP growth of 3.6% in 2026 (up from 2.0% in our spring 2026 forecast), moderating to 2.4% in 2027. Inflation is projected to average 3% this year. Fiscal consolidation has been deferred under the new right-wing minority government, which is banking on an omnibus law of tax relief and deregulation that will go to a referendum in November.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202320242025202620272028
Population, 1000 persons212021272133...
GDP, real change in %2.62.01.53.62.42.3
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)351103615038050...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-5.6-1.0-1.4...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average3.73.73.93.93.73.6
Average gross monthly wages, EUR222123952536...
Consumer prices, % p.a.7.22.02.53.02.62.3
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-2.6-0.9-2.6-2.4-2.6-2.5
Public debt in % of GDP68.266.365.1...
Current account in % of GDP4.95.24.12.02.01.9
FDI inflow, EUR m139917201765...
Gross external debt in % of GDP90.487.988.2...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2026

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Ioannis Gutzianas, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Isilda Mara, Michał Możdżeń, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2026
52 pages including 5 Tables

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
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