Slovenia

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Slovenia’s economy remains under pressure from subdued export growth and weak sentiment among households and businesses. We forecast GDP growth of 0.5% in 2025; this will pick up to 1.8% in 2026, as external demand gradually improves and government expenditure strengthens. Inflation in 2025 will remain elevated at 2.8%, driven primarily by rising food prices. Energy-intensive industries are continuing to contract, weighing on employment despite the structural labour shortages. The political scene is hotting up ahead of the 2026 parliamentary elections, when a shift to the right appears increasingly likely.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202220232024202520262027
Population, 1000 persons211221202127...
GDP, real change in %2.72.41.70.51.82.2
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)320403505036330...
Gross industrial production, real change in %1.2-5.6-1.0...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average4.03.73.73.73.63.5
Average gross monthly wages, EUR202422212395...
Consumer prices, % p.a.9.37.22.02.82.02.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-3.0-2.6-0.9-2.3-1.9-1.5
Public debt in % of GDP72.868.366.6...
Current account in % of GDP-0.94.84.53.13.13.7
FDI inflow, EUR m218313991722...
Gross external debt in % of GDP91.190.587.9...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2025

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2025
38 pages including 5 Tables and 3 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
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