WIIW The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies - Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche

In 2024, Slovenia’s GDP is expected to grow by 2.4% – well above the EU average. Growth will be driven by government spending (primarily on rebuilding infrastructure after last year’s severe floods), as well as by private consumption and investment, which will benefit from receding inflation. Exports will improve somewhat from 2023 and will see a current account surplus of 3% of GDP, despite imports growing more than exports. In April, annual inflation stood at 3% – lower than expected – and we have downgraded our forecast for the whole year from 3.3% to 2.7%, in anticipation of further disinflation as the year progresses. The labour market remains tight, and unemployment will continue to hover at around 3.6% in 2024 and beyond. The government has introduced limited tax reform, offering tax breaks for the employment of skilled workers from abroad and encouraging equity-based corporate incentives. A (non-binding) public referendum on expanding the nuclear power plant is planned for the second half of the year, as the country deliberates on one of the most far-reaching issues for several decades. Despite losing ground to the right-wing opposition in the 2024 European elections, the government of Dr Robert Golob is secure, and most political parties are in agreement as regards the nuclear expansion project.