Slovenia

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This year should see a return to normality for Slovenia, following the traumatic floods of 2023. As inflation recedes, so consumer confidence and manufacturing should recover from the bruising they suffered in Q2 and Q3 2023. Growth will (again) be driven by investment in infrastructure, fuelled by both the EU recovery funds and flood reconstruction activity, as well as by international trade, resulting once more in a current account surplus. Real GDP is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2024 and by 2.5% in 2025. Annual inflation should settle at 3.7% in 2024 (slightly above the anticipated EU average) and is expected to decrease gradually to 2.4% in 2025. The increase in spending that was necessary to support flood reconstruction has prompted the government to announce cuts to the 2024 budget, although the costs of reconstruction and the increased commitments to public salaries and pensions will still result in a public deficit only slightly narrower than in 2023. After seeing a substantial dip in support in 2023, the government of Dr Robert Golob is likely to weather the storm, although its ability to deliver reform – particularly in health care, public salaries, pensions and taxes – has been brought into question.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202120222023202420252026
Population, 1000 persons21082112....
GDP, real change in %8.22.51.62.72.53.3
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)2933031870....
Gross industrial production, real change in %10.31.2-5.3...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average4.84.03.73.63.63.5
Average gross monthly wages, EUR19702024....
Consumer prices, % p.a.2.09.37.23.72.52.5
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-4.6-3.0-4.2-3.9-2.1-1.8
Public debt in % of GDP74.472.3....
Current account in % of GDP3.3-1.02.52.22.32.2
FDI inflow, EUR m18562051....
Gross external debt in % of GDP97.490.9....


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

publication_icon

Monthly Report No. 1/2024

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2024
50 pages including 5 Tables and 18 Figures

Details

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SLOVENIA: Worst flooding in decades is the defining moment of the year

Niko Korpar
in: Beneath the Veneer of Calm
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2023, October 2023 , pp. 129-132
Details and Buy


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