Latvia

Our GDP growth forecast for 2017 has been increased to 4.2%. Private and (particularly) public investment activity is expanding faster than expected. The inflow of EU funds is likely to amount to 2.6% of GDP this year. As anticipated, exports to Russia have revived following the upswing in that country. Household consumption is developing rapidly, and this will continue in the coming years thanks to rising minimum wages and the 2018 income tax reform. In both 2018 and 2019, we expect continuously robust GDP growth of 3.8% and 3.2%, respectively.

map Latvia
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201420152016201720182019
Population, 1000 persons199419781960...
GDP, real change in %1.92.82.14.23.83.2
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)176001860018900...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-1.03.65.4...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average10.89.99.69.28.88.4
Average gross monthly wages, EUR765818859...
Consumer prices, % p.a.0.70.20.13.33.23.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-1.2-1.20.0...
Public debt in % of GDP40.836.840.5...
Current account in % of GDP-1.7-0.51.4-0.4-1.7-2.3
FDI inflow, EUR mn704752222...
Gross external debt in % of GDP143.7143.4148.8...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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LATVIA: Public investment and minimum wages to lift growth

Sebastian Leitner
in: CESEE Back on Track to Convergence
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2017, November 2017 , pp. 86-88
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2017

Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2017
27 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures

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