Latvia
For 2017, we expect external demand to grow again. Stronger than anticipated investment growth seems to materialise already in 2017, driven by the speed-up of demand in the EU and the inflow of EU funds. Household demand is continuing to evolve at quite a good pace, and thus our GDP growth forecast for 2017 has been raised slightly to 2.9%. We expect GDP to grow at a similar speed in 2018 and 2019, at 3.0% and 2.9%, respectively.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| Population, 1000 persons. | 1994 | 1978 | 1960 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.9 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 17500 | 18600 | 19000 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -1.0 | 3.6 | 5.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 10.8 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 8.5 | 8.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 765 | 818 | 859 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.6 | -1.3 | 0.0 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 40.9 | 36.5 | 40.1 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -2.0 | -0.8 | 1.5 | 0.2 | -0.2 | -0.5 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 813 | 684 | 162 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 143.0 | 141.6 | 144.7 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2017
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2017
27 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures
LATVIA: EU funds push up growth rate
Sebastian Leitner
in: Cautious Upturn in CESEE: Haunted by the Spectre of Uncertainty
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2017, March 2017 , pp. 86-88
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