Latvia
Following a remarkable 2017, when GDP growth attained 4.5%, Latvia’s economy will keep prospering at its potential in both 2018 and 2019. Public spending is continuing to expand rapidly, driven by the inflow of EU funds, while enterprises will also increase their investments. Growth in exports will remain lively. Household consumption is developing rapidly, and this will continue in the coming years, thanks to rising minimum wages and the 2018 income tax reform. In both 2018 and 2019, we expect continuously robust GDP growth of 3.8% and 3.3%, followed by a slight slowdown to 2.7% in 2020.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 1978 | 1960 | 1950 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.0 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 2.7 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 18500 | 18800 | 19800 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 3.6 | 5.4 | 8.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 9.9 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.2 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 818 | 859 | 926 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 0.2 | 0.1 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.2 | 0.0 | -0.8 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 36.8 | 40.5 | 38.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -0.5 | 1.4 | -0.8 | -1.4 | -2.3 | -2.6 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 752 | 222 | 996 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 143.6 | 148.8 | 140.8 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
LATVIA: Riding high on the investment cycle
Sebastian Leitner
in: Riding the Global Growth Wave
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2018, March 2018 , pp. 110-113
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2017
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, August 2017
27 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures