Latvia
The Latvian economy has experienced a sharp decline, but seems to have bounced back quite quickly in the third quarter of 2020. Household consumption fell by more than 20% in the second quarter, but more recently has picked up again. The decline in external demand was much less than expected. Similarly, gross fixed capital investment fell only slightly, but is likely to be depressed in the second half of the year. In 2020, we expect GDP to shrink by 4.6%; this will be followed by strong growth of 4.4% in 2021 and a somewhat slower upswing of 2.8% in 2022.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 1942 | 1927 | 1914 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.1 | -4.6 | 4.4 | 2.8 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 19680 | 20890 | 21530 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 8.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 8.7 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 6.8 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 926 | 1004 | 1076 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 2.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.6 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 39.0 | 37.1 | 36.9 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 1.3 | -0.3 | -0.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 1005 | 374 | 949 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 141.5 | 123.3 | 117.1 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
LATVIA: After the slump, heading for a well-shaped recovery
Sebastian Leitner
in: No Quick Recovery in Sight, with Coronavirus Risks Looming Large
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2020, November 2020 , pp. 77-80
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures