Latvia
With GDP declining by 3.6% the Latvian economy has experienced a milder recession than expected; however, the subsequent revival of 2021 will be restrained. Last year household consumption slumped by more than 10%, while capital investments remained afloat. For this year we see a continuation of the revival in household consumption, but also external demand. Similarly, gross fixed capital investment will gain momentum, also boosted by public expenditures. In 2021 we expect GDP to increase by 2.8%; this will be followed by strong growth of 4.2% in 2022 and a somewhat slower upswing of 3.8% in 2023
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 1927 | 1914 | 1910 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.0 | 2.0 | -3.6 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.8 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 20890 | 21500 | 21170 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 1.5 | 0.9 | -1.5 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 7.4 | 6.3 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 6.5 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1004 | 1076 | 1120 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.6 | 2.7 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 3.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -0.8 | -0.6 | -5.1 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 37.1 | 37.0 | 49.8 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -0.3 | -0.6 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.3 | -1.2 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 374 | 949 | 684 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 123.3 | 117.3 | 130.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
LATVIA: Trying to overcome the economic spillover effects of the pandemic
Sebastian Leitner
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 86-89
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures