Latvia

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Following a relatively mild recession in 2020, the Latvian economy is experiencing a remarkably strong revival in 2021. Household consumption has recouped most of the 10% loss it experienced last year, while enterprises are replenishing their depleted stocks. Public consumption and investment are acting as a growth driver, and external demand has similarly rebounded. In 2021, we expect GDP growth to increase to 4.5% and to remain strong in 2022 (4.3%). That will be followed by a somewhat gentler increase of 3.4% in 2023.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201820192020202120222023
Population, 1000 persons192719141900...
GDP, real change in %4.02.5-3.64.54.33.4
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)209502170021030...
Gross industrial production, real change in %1.50.9-1.5...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average7.46.38.17.66.86.5
Average gross monthly wages, EUR100410761143...
Consumer prices, % p.a.2.62.70.13.23.73.2
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-0.8-0.6-4.5-8.0-4.0-2.0
Public debt in % of GDP37.136.743.2...
Current account in % of GDP-0.2-0.72.9-2.7-2.6-2.1
FDI inflow, EUR m373975820...
Gross external debt in % of GDP123.3116.8124.6...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Executive summary

Vasily Astrov
in: Recovery Beating Expectations
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2021, October 2021 , pp. I-VI
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2021

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2021
42 pages including 4 Tables and 15 Figures

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