Latvia
Both public and private investment have kept the economy growing at a high pace in 2018 and exports evolved more strongly than expected. Household consumption is also rising rapidly; a tightening labour market and the 2018 income tax reform will provide further stimulus. While public spending is likely to expand quickly, we assume external demand growth to abate gradually. In 2018 we expect another year with high GDP growth of 4.1%, followed by a slight slowdown to 3.3% in 2019 and 2.7% in 2020.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 1960 | 1942 | 1930 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.1 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 3.0 | . |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 18800 | 20000 | 21300 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 5.4 | 8.3 | 1.5 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 9.6 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 6.7 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 859 | 926 | 1010 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 0.1 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | . |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 0.1 | -0.6 | -0.8 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 40.3 | 40.0 | 37.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 1.6 | 0.7 | -0.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | . |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 222 | 1024 | 305 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 148.9 | 140.5 | 125.2 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
LATVIA: Construction pushes growth but some slowdown ahead
Sebastian Leitner
in: Strong Growth Amid Increased Negative Risks
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2018, November 2018 , pp. 100-103
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 6/2018
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2018
27 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure