Latvia
Economic growth has almost halved in comparison to the last two boom years. Investment growth has slowed, although household consumption remains robust. Although abating slightly, exports have grown more strongly than expected so far in 2019. Despite the economic slowdown, the labour market is tightening further with the unemployment rate falling towards 6.5% in 2019. This year, we expect GDP growth to decline to 2.7%, followed by a further slowdown to 2.2% in 2020 and amelioration to 2.4% in 2021.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 1960 | 1942 | 1927 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 1.8 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 18800 | 19900 | 21500 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 5.4 | 8.3 | 1.5 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 9.6 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 859 | 926 | 1004 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 0.1 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 0.1 | -0.5 | -0.7 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 40.2 | 38.6 | 36.4 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 1.4 | 1.0 | -0.7 | -0.2 | -0.5 | -0.6 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 302 | 991 | 390 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 148.4 | 141.5 | 122.5 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
LATVIA: In the midst of a soft landing
Sebastian Leitner
in: Braced for Fallout from Global Slowdown
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2019, November 2019 , pp. 80-83
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 6/2019
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Hermine Vidovic and Goran Vuksic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2019
27 pages including 24 Tables and 1 Figure