Latvia
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 1900 | 1884 | 1879 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -2.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 21600 | 23250 | 25940 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -1.5 | 6.7 | 0.9 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 8.1 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1143 | 1277 | 1373 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 0.1 | 3.2 | 17.2 | 11.0 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -4.4 | -7.1 | -4.4 | -4.0 | -2.7 | -2.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 42.0 | 43.7 | 40.8 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 2.6 | -4.2 | -6.4 | -3.0 | -2.0 | -1.6 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 816 | 3185 | 1174 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 121.5 | 109.6 | 100.5 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2023
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2023
51 pages including 3 Tables, 24 Figures and 1 Box
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: Sailing Through Rough Waters
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2023, April 2023 , pp. I-VI
Details
Thanks to somewhat better economic developments in the first months of the year, we have revised our GDP growth forecast for 2023 upwards, to 0.8%. While consumer price inflation remains in double digits, strongly rising wages have enabled real incomes and consumption to grow again from Q2 onwards. Sluggish economic activity in the rest of the Baltic States and Scandinavia, together with sharply rising unit labour costs for Latvian producers, will result in a decline in real terms this year in both industrial production and exports. However, the Latvian government will keep growth afloat by using funds from the NextGenerationEU programme for public investments more intensively this year, while aiming at a deficit of 4% of GDP. The labour market will remain tight in 2023, and the unemployment rate is likely to stay at around 7%. In the coming years, growth is projected to pick up to 2.8% in 2024 and 3% in 2025.