Latvia
Our GDP growth forecast for Latvia for 2017 stands at 2.5%. Private and particularly public investment activity will rally. The inflow of EU funds is expected to amount to 2.6% of GDP this year. After a steep decline in recent years, exports to Russia have again started to increase. Household consumption has developed rapidly and will continue, due to rising real wages. In both 2018 and 2019, we expect a further upswing in GDP growth to 2.7% and 2.8%, respectively.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| Population, 1000 persons. | 1994 | 1978 | 1961 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 17500 | 18600 | 19400 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -1.0 | 3.6 | 5.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 10.8 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 8.4 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 765 | 818 | 859 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.6 | -1.3 | 0.0 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 40.9 | 36.5 | 40.1 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -2.0 | -0.8 | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.1 | -1.7 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 813 | 684 | 162 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 143.0 | 141.6 | 144.7 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 5/2017
Vasily Astrov, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara and Sandor Richter
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2017
46 pages including 4 Tables and 30 Figures
LATVIA: EU funds push up growth rate
Sebastian Leitner
in: Cautious Upturn in CESEE: Haunted by the Spectre of Uncertainty
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2017, March 2017 , pp. 86-88
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