Latvia
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 1900 | 1884 | 1876 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -2.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 21620 | 23230 | 26110 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -1.5 | 6.7 | 0.9 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 8.1 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 6.8 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1143 | 1277 | 1373 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 0.1 | 3.2 | 17.2 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 3.3 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -4.3 | -7.0 | -4.8 | -5.0 | -3.5 | -2.5 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 42.0 | 43.7 | 41.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 2.6 | -4.2 | -6.4 | -1.5 | -2.0 | -2.5 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 816 | 3185 | 1175 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 121.3 | 109.7 | 100.5 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 1/2023
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2023
44 pages including 4 Tables and 16 Figures
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Executive summary
Branimir Jovanović
in: Bracing for the Winter
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2022, October 2022 , pp. I-VIII
Details
The effects of the war in Ukraine and the decoupling of Latvia from Russian energy sources resulted in recession arriving sooner than expected, in Q3 2022. Only in the second half of 2023 will an upswing in external demand and investment result in the revival of economic activity; for the year as a whole, we expect GDP to stagnate. Public infrastructure projects that were postponed in 2022 due to rising prices will need to commence in 2023, in order to make full use of the funds from the NextGenerationEU programme. Inflation has led to a decline in the purchasing power of households, which in recent months has curbed growth in consumption; but lower inflation later this year will result in brisker retail trade. The labour market will remain tight in 2023, and the high level of vacancies will keep unemployment rates low. In the coming years, growth is projected to pick up to 3.3% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025.