Latvia
Following weak growth in 2018, external demand is improving again this year, particularly from North European countries. High capacity utilisation stimulates private investment in machinery and equipment. Household consumption will rise at a somewhat slower pace, since skill shortages result in strongly rising wages, but lower employment growth. In 2019 we expect GDP to grow still considerably, by 3.3% in real terms, followed by a slowdown to 3.1% in 2020 and 2.7% in 2021.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 1960 | 1942 | 1930 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.1 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.7 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 18800 | 20000 | 21700 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 5.4 | 8.3 | 1.5 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 9.6 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 6.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 859 | 926 | 1010 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 0.1 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 0.1 | -0.6 | -1.0 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 40.3 | 40.0 | 35.9 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 1.6 | 0.7 | -1.0 | -0.2 | -0.5 | -0.6 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 222 | 1024 | 344 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 148.6 | 140.3 | 120.9 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 6/2019
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Hermine Vidovic and Goran Vuksic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2019
27 pages including 24 Tables and 1 Figure
LATVIA: Beyond peak, but growth further bolstered by investment
Sebastian Leitner
in: Moving Into the Slow Lane
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2019, March 2019 , pp. 100-103
Details and Buy