Latvia
Government restrictions on shopping and restaurants have been relatively liberal in Latvia, but that will not prevent economic activity from declining sharply in 2020, compared to last year. We expect GDP to drop by 8.5% this year. The substantial government support package – amounting to 7% of GDP – will help the revival of domestic demand. Thus, we forecast GDP to grow again in 2021, by 4.5%.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 1942 | 1927 | 1914 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.1 | -8.0 | 4.5 | . |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 19600 | 20920 | 21560 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 8.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 8.7 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 8.5 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 926 | 1004 | 1076 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 1.5 | . |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.2 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 39.0 | 37.1 | 36.9 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 1.3 | -0.3 | -0.6 | 4.0 | 2.0 | . |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 1005 | 374 | 949 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 140.6 | 122.5 | 116.2 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Due to the unusually high level of uncertainty caused by COVID-19, we only present forecasts for 2020-2021.
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures
LATVIA: Weak investment and stuttering trade keep growth low
Sebastian Leitner
in: Uncertainty in Turbulent Times
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2020, March 2020 , pp. 103-106
Details and Buy