Latvia
Both public and private investment keep the economy growing at a high pace in 2019, whereas export activity is further abating this year. Household consumption will continue to rise rapidly in 2019. While employment increases, skill shortage results in strong wage growth. The incoming coalition government may pursue a more lax fiscal policy. In 2019 we expect GDP to grow still considerably, by 3.5% in real terms, followed by a further slowdown to 3% in 2020 and 2.5% in 2021.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 1960 | 1942 | 1930 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.1 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 18800 | 20000 | 21700 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 5.4 | 8.3 | 1.5 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 9.6 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 859 | 926 | 1010 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 0.1 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 0.1 | -0.6 | -1.0 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 40.3 | 40.0 | 35.9 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 1.6 | 0.7 | -1.0 | -0.7 | -1.0 | -1.1 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 222 | 1024 | 344 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 148.9 | 140.5 | 121.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
LATVIA: Beyond peak, but growth further bolstered by investment
Sebastian Leitner
in: Moving Into the Slow Lane
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2019, March 2019 , pp. 100-103
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 6/2018
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2018
27 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure