Kazakhstan
GDP growth will remain robust at 4% in 2019, driven mainly by private consumption, but will slow to around 3.5% in 2020 and 2021, as the stimulating effect of fiscal packages dies out. The current account balance will deteriorate as imports rise on the back of stronger demand for consumer and capital goods. Export growth could decelerate amid an expected economic slowdown in Kazakhstan’s main trading partners.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 17794 | 18038 | 18276 | 18500 | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 1.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 18400 | 19600 | 20400 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -1.1 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 3.8 | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 377 | 409 | 400 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 14.6 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.6 | -2.7 | -1.4 | -2.0 | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 25.0 | 25.7 | 26.0 | 25.0 | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -5.9 | -3.1 | -0.2 | -2.4 | -2.0 | -1.9 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 15562 | 4171 | 181 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 125.7 | 94.9 | 91.3 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
KAZAKHSTAN: Relying on state support to sustain economic growth
Alexandra Bykova
in: Braced for Fallout from Global Slowdown
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2019, November 2019 , pp. 72-75
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 6/2019
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Hermine Vidovic and Goran Vuksic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2019
27 pages including 24 Tables and 1 Figure