Kazakhstan
Our economic growth forecast for 2021 has been revised upwards to 3.5% (from 3.2%), thanks to the recent strong performance, higher-than-expected oil prices, better prospects for global recovery and new fiscal stimulus. However, the late start to mass vaccination and the low vaccination rate render the recovery vulnerable to a resurgence of the pandemic. Stronger growth of above 4% is expected only in the coming years.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 18276 | 18514 | 18756 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.1 | 4.5 | -2.5 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.4 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 17740 | 18480 | 18020 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 4.4 | 4.1 | -0.5 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 400 | 436 | 452 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 6.0 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 5.8 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.4 | -1.9 | -4.0 | -3.5 | -2.5 | -2.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 26.0 | 24.9 | 30.5 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -0.1 | -4.0 | -3.8 | -2.7 | -1.8 | -0.9 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 71 | 3322 | 6488 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 91.9 | 87.3 | 88.9 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2021
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanovic, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2021
42 pages including 4 Tables and 15 Figures
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KAZAKHSTAN: Rapid recovery in doubt
Alexandra Bykova
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 77-81
Details and Buy
Despite real GDP decline of 1.4% in Q1 2021, the short-time indicator for January-May points to an incipient broad recovery (2%). The strong performance in manufacturing over the first five months (7.2%) is especially visible in the automotive sector (26.4%), pharmaceuticals (25.7%) and the production of construction materials (21.4%). Construction grew by 11.3%, boosted by the new opportunity to finance housing construction from surplus pension savings, and retail sales grew by 7.5%. Mining still posted a 4.9% decline, but the recent easing of OPEC+ oil production cuts should favour a recovery later this year. The recent increase in budget spending of 1.7% of GDP will not have an impact on the deficit, thanks to the higher tax revenues. Although inflation overshot its target to reach 7.2% in January-May (year on year), the policy rate has so far remained unchanged. Our economic growth forecast for 2021 has been revised upwards to 3.5% (from 3.2%), thanks to the recent strong performance, higher-than-expected oil prices, better prospects for global recovery and new fiscal stimulus. However, the late start to mass vaccination and the low vaccination rate render the recovery vulnerable to a resurgence of the pandemic. Stronger growth of above 4% is expected only in the coming years.