Kazakhstan

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Despite accelerating inflation and declining global oil prices, the economy remains resilient. Real GDP grew by 5.6% in Q1 and business sentiment in manufacturing and services continued to be positive in May. Moreover, the expected recovery in oil production on the back of the Tengiz oil field expansion is already under way: production increased by 8.8% year on year in the first four months of 2025. In construction, transport and logistics the double-digit annual growth seen in Q1 is likely to be maintained, supported by public investment in energy infrastructure, the construction of schools and hospitals, and continued development of the Middle Corridor. However, the economy is facing certain headwinds. The increase in the production of oil will not be sufficient to offset the loss of export and budget revenue following the anticipated drop in the price of oil in 2025. Consumption growth is likely to weaken as the accelerating inflation eats into real income, while consumer lending has been slowing down since last year. The recently observed weakening in manufacturing is likely to contribute to a cooling of the economy. As consumer inflation accelerated to 11.3% year on year in May (on the back of an increase in food prices and utilities tariffs), and as the expected value-added tax hike next year will have a pro-inflationary impact, monetary policy is likely to remain tight up until the end of 2025. Fiscal consolidation is set to continue. Despite all this, Kazakhstan’s economy is likely to maintain its leading position in CESEE in 2025-2026 amid a recent economic performance that has been stronger than expected. The main risks to the forecast stem from the global uncertainty, which may lead to even lower oil prices and reduced global demand, and could undermine future foreign investment in the economy.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202220232024202520262027
Population, 1000 persons196351990020159...
GDP, real change in %3.25.14.85.04.54.5
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)229802552027040...
Gross industrial production, real change in %1.24.42.8...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average4.94.74.74.64.64.6
Average gross monthly wages, EUR640738798...
Consumer prices, % p.a.15.014.58.711.09.07.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-2.1-2.4-2.7-2.4-2.3-2.0
Public debt in % of GDP25.724.025.2...
Current account in % of GDP2.9-3.6-1.3-3.0-2.5-2.1
FDI inflow, EUR m48335382-630...
Gross external debt in % of GDP70.660.759.7...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2025

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2025
38 pages including 5 Tables and 3 Figures

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
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