Kazakhstan
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 19001 | 19635 | 19900 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.3 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 19100 | 20420 | 21770 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 3.6 | 1.2 | 4.3 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.5 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 497 | 640 | 735 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 8.0 | 15.0 | 14.7 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 5.8 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -3.0 | -2.1 | -2.3 | -2.3 | -2.0 | -2.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 27.6 | 25.7 | 23.8 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -1.4 | 3.1 | -3.3 | -2.0 | -1.5 | -0.5 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 3861 | 4819 | 4906 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 87.2 | 70.4 | 60.3 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2024
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2024
45 pages including 5 Tables and 12 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
Economic performance in Q1 2024 was weaker than expected, with real GDP growth of 3.7% year on year, down from 5.5% in Q4 2023. A 0.6% decline in oil production due to OPEC+ production restrictions, as well as weak performance in agriculture and wholesale trade in the first four months, held back overall economic growth. By contrast, construction, communication services, transport and logistics remain key drivers of growth, fuelled by investment. The performance of the manufacturing sector remains robust, driven primarily by the machinery, metallurgy and chemical industries; this is likely to persist, given the prevailing positive sentiment. Consumption should also continue to pick up, thanks to the minimum wage hike in January, strong consumer lending and the gradual return of the monthly inflation rate to its long-term average. From the monetary policy side, the latest policy rate cut of 25 basis points (to 14.5%) is in line with the course of easing. In view of the pro-inflationary risks – such as loose fiscal policy, rising global food prices and higher utility tariffs – the pace is likely to remain moderate. Given the weak oil sector, characterised by poor four-month results, a slump in investment and the recent extension of OPEC+ oil production restrictions until the end of September 2024, we have revised our 2024 GDP growth forecast downwards by 0.5 percentage points, to 4.2%. We expect the economy to accelerate back to almost 5% in 2025, driven by stronger consumption amid lower inflation and a significant impetus to the country’s oil production, once the Tengiz oil field expansion is completed.