Kazakhstan

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Following the protests that rocked Kazakhstan in early January, a reshuffle of the political elite and the managers of large state-owned enterprises has got under way, as President Tokayev consolidates his political power. Despite uncertainty over the extent of the political changes and their economic impact, we expect economic growth to exceed 4% over the next three years and to be in line with long-term averages. The high global oil price favours the growth of exports; domestic demand is recovering; and the increase in the minimum wage of around 40% from January 2022 will further boost consumption this year. Industrial output is likely to remain robust, supported by a strong performance in the manufacturing sector and a recovery in the mining sector, which is gaining momentum in the wake of relaxed OPEC+ oil production restrictions. However, the spread of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus poses a downside risk to the revival of economic activity in 2022. A mild slowdown in consumer price inflation was observed at the end of 2021. Moreover, temporary price regulation of the main motor fuels (until mid-2022) and of socially important food products has been introduced following protests. However, both inflation and depreciation of the tenge remain negative risks to the forecast, given the high global food and energy prices. These risks are reinforced by those that may carry over to Kazakhstan from developments in Russia, due to the two countries’ strong trade relations.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201920202021202220232024
Population, 1000 persons1851418756....
GDP, real change in %4.5-2.53.94.24.44.1
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)1867017830....
Gross industrial production, real change in %4.1-0.5....
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average4.84.94.94.84.84.8
Average gross monthly wages, EUR436452....
Consumer prices, % p.a.5.36.88.06.96.05.5
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-1.9-4.0-3.3-3.2-2.6-2.5
Public debt in % of GDP24.930.5....
Current account in % of GDP-4.0-3.8-3.2-2.5-2.0-2.5
FDI inflow, EUR m33226488....
Gross external debt in % of GDP87.689.3....


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2022

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Marcus How, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2022
58 pages including 4 Tables and 21 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Vasily Astrov
in: Recovery Beating Expectations
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2021, October 2021 , pp. I-VI
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