Kazakhstan
GDP will grow by 4% in 2018, mainly owing to high oil prices and expansion of production in the oil sector. In 2019-2020, the economy will continue benefiting from the favourable commodity price environment and grow by about 3% annually. The main risks to the forecast are a sharp decline in global oil prices and intensifying geopolitical tensions around Russia and China.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 17794 | 18038 | 18276 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 1.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | . |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 18400 | 19100 | 19800 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -1.1 | 7.3 | 4.1 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 377 | 409 | 402 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 14.6 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | . |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.6 | -2.7 | -1.4 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 25.0 | 26.3 | 27.3 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -6.5 | -3.3 | 0.5 | -0.7 | -1.2 | . |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 15273 | 4119 | 362 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 125.7 | 97.2 | 99.1 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
KAZAKHSTAN: Further profiting from high oil prices
Olga Pindyuk
in: Strong Growth Amid Increased Negative Risks
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2018, November 2018 , pp. 92-95
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 6/2018
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2018
27 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure