Kazakhstan
After a relatively moderate real GDP decline of 2.6% in 2020 (thanks to a large anti-crisis fiscal package), economic recovery of 3.2% is expected for 2021. Although the high price of oil could suggest a more robust economic revival, the remaining pandemic-related restrictions on economic activity and the slow vaccination rate will impede a full recovery in consumption this year. Economic growth is likely to accelerate to above 4% in 2022-2023, driven by consumption, exports and investment.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 18276 | 18514 | 18756 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.1 | 4.5 | -2.6 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 4.4 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 17200 | 17950 | 17510 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 4.4 | 4.1 | -0.7 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 400 | 436 | 454 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 6.0 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 5.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.4 | -1.9 | -4.0 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 26.0 | 24.9 | 30.7 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -0.1 | -4.0 | -3.7 | -3.1 | -1.9 | -0.9 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 71 | 2966 | 6363 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 91.9 | 87.3 | 89.5 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
KAZAKHSTAN: Rapid recovery in doubt
Alexandra Bykova
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 77-81
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures