Kazakhstan

A large part of the deterioration in Kazakhstan’s economic performance will be due to the trade sector and the disruption it has faced in the wake of the Coronavirus restrictions. The low oil prices also mean that export earnings will plunge, draining budget revenues and putting pressure on the tenge. A large government support package, coupled with administrative measures, will go some way towards mitigating the shocks to the economy and the labour market. Because of a good performance in the first quarter, we expect GDP to decline by only 3% in 2020. The recovery next year is anticipated to be weak, at 2%, with low consumption growth and only a partial rebound in exports.

map Kazakhstan
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201720182019202020212022
Population, 1000 persons180381827618514...
GDP, real change in %4.14.14.5-3.02.0.
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)170601784018540...
Gross industrial production, real change in %7.34.44.1...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average4.94.94.86.05.0.
Average gross monthly wages, EUR409400436...
Consumer prices, % p.a.7.46.05.37.05.0.
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-2.7-1.4-1.9...
Public debt in % of GDP25.726.024.9...
Current account in % of GDP-3.1-0.1-4.0-6.0-4.0.
FDI inflow, EUR mn4171713010...
Gross external debt in % of GDP94.991.987.3...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

Due to the unusually high level of uncertainty caused by COVID-19, we only present forecasts for 2020-2021.

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Monthly Report No. 5/2020

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures

Details

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KAZAKHSTAN: Domestic demand spurring growth despite external headwinds

Alexandra Bykova
in: Uncertainty in Turbulent Times
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2020, March 2020 , pp. 95-98
Details and Buy


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