Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan has increased its oil output contrary to its commitments to OPEC to curb oil production. The national currency has appreciated by 20% against the US dollar since December 2016 on the back of the favourable trade dynamics. We revised upwards the GDP growth forecast for 2017 to 2.5% as oil output will grow faster than previously expected. In 2018-2019, growth will further speed up to about 3%, with investment being the main driving force.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 17289 | 17544 | 17794 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 18200 | 18700 | 18900 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 0.3 | -1.6 | -1.1 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 508 | 513 | 377 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 6.7 | 6.6 | 14.6 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.7 | -2.2 | -1.6 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 14.6 | 22.7 | 25.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 2.8 | -2.8 | -6.5 | -2.6 | -1.9 | -1.9 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 5437 | 5568 | 15340 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 77.7 | 84.3 | 126.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2017
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2017
27 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures
KAZAKHSTAN: Benefiting from higher oil prices
Olga Pindyuk
in: Cautious Upturn in CESEE: Haunted by the Spectre of Uncertainty
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2017, March 2017 , pp. 77-80
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