Kazakhstan
The Kazakh economy has been expanding mainly on the back of the oil sector. Lack of economic diversification will limit the scale of GDP growth to about 3% per annum during 2018-2020. Households have not benefited from economic growth, as their incomes have dropped in real terms. The banking sector remains a bottleneck to economic diversification.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 17544 | 17794 | 18038 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 1.2 | 1.1 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 19000 | 18600 | 19200 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -1.6 | -1.1 | 7.1 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 513 | 377 | 408 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 6.6 | 14.6 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.2 | -1.6 | -2.7 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 22.7 | 25.0 | 26.3 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -2.8 | -6.5 | -3.3 | -1.8 | -2.2 | -2.6 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 5755 | 15163 | 4020 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 84.3 | 126.0 | 97.2 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
KAZAKHSTAN: Oil sector growth benefits few
Olga Pindyuk
in: Riding the Global Growth Wave
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2018, March 2018 , pp. 101-105
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2017
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, August 2017
27 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures