Kazakhstan
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 18756 | 19001 | 19635 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -2.5 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 17540 | 19100 | 20470 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -0.5 | 3.6 | 1.1 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 452 | 497 | 640 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 6.8 | 8.0 | 15.0 | 14.5 | 9.0 | 6.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -4.0 | -3.0 | -2.1 | -2.7 | -2.5 | -2.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 30.5 | 27.6 | 25.7 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -6.4 | -1.3 | 3.5 | -2.0 | -2.0 | -2.4 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 6312 | 3846 | 4667 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 89.2 | 87.2 | 70.3 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2023
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2023
51 pages including 3 Tables, 24 Figures and 1 Box
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: Sailing Through Rough Waters
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2023, April 2023 , pp. I-VI
Details
The economy started off 2023 better than expected, with GDP growth of 4.9% year on year in Q1, driven by construction, trade, transport, communication and manufacturing. Still, producer sentiment is lacking any clear upwards trend. Oil production grew by 3% year on year in the first four months, but forthcoming maintenance work and OPEC+ production cuts will moderate the whole-year result. Consumer sentiment has been deteriorating amid a Q1 real-wage decline of 0.6% year on year. Though it has slowed, consumer inflation remained above 15% in May, and the expectation is that it will remain high. Monetary policy easing has been delayed, with the policy rate left at 16.75%. Pro-inflationary factors are mainly domestic: fiscal support, increased regulated fuel prices and anticipated hikes in housing rents. Lower global oil prices have led us to revise our current account forecast for 2023 downwards, to -2% of GDP. Subdued consumption and weak oil exports are likely to drag economic performance down in the second half of the year. However, in view of higher-than-expected investment, especially in transport and logistics, and an overall robust growth in previous months, we have revised our GDP forecast for 2023 upwards, to 4.5%.