Kazakhstan
In 2019, GDP growth will slow down to 3.6% mostly due to lower oil prices. Consumer demand will become the main driver of growth during the forecast period on the back of fiscal stimulus and credit expansion. Continuity of the country’s political course is expected to be preserved despite the change in the top leadership as the former president has retained a wide-ranging degree of authority. Risks of growing social unrest might negatively affect the country’s economic prospects.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 17794 | 18038 | 18276 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 1.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 18400 | 18700 | 20000 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -1.1 | 7.3 | 4.1 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 377 | 409 | 400 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 14.6 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.6 | -2.7 | -1.4 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 25.0 | 26.3 | 26.9 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -5.9 | -3.1 | 0.0 | -1.8 | -2.9 | -2.7 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 15562 | 4171 | 176 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 125.7 | 97.2 | 94.7 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 6/2019
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Hermine Vidovic and Goran Vuksic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2019
27 pages including 24 Tables and 1 Figure
KAZAKHSTAN: Falling oil prices bring economic diversification to the fore
Olga Pindyuk
in: Moving Into the Slow Lane
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2019, March 2019 , pp. 92-95
Details and Buy