Kazakhstan

map Kazakhstan
With projected growth of above 4.5% over the forecast period, Kazakhstan is likely to maintain its leading position in CESEE. Investment growth will be backed by state support measures for manufacturing and by development of the Middle Corridor. The lifting of OPEC+ production restrictions and the expansion of the Tengiz oil field in the second half of 2025 will drive oil production and exports, although a fall in the price of oil is likely to undermine nominal export growth. However, private consumption is projected to slow, due to the pro-inflationary effects of the fiscal stimulus, tariff hikes, imported inflation from Russia and the hike in value added tax envisaged for 2026. Monetary policy tightening in Q1 2025 is likely to stop only when inflation is tamed.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202220232024202520262027
Population, 1000 persons196351990020159...
GDP, real change in %3.25.14.84.74.64.5
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)229802552027240...
Gross industrial production, real change in %1.24.42.8...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average4.94.74.74.64.64.6
Average gross monthly wages, EUR640738796...
Consumer prices, % p.a.15.014.58.710.08.07.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-2.1-2.4-2.7-2.4-2.3-2.0
Public debt in % of GDP25.724.025.0...
Current account in % of GDP2.9-3.6-1.3-2.5-2.3-2.1
FDI inflow, EUR m48335382-630...
Gross external debt in % of GDP70.660.759.3...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

publication_icon

Monthly Report No. 1/2025

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej J. Grodzicki, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2025
50 pages including 6 Tables and 13 Figures

Details

publication_icon

Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details


top