Kazakhstan
Higher oil prices allowed for faster economic growth and stabilisation of the exchange rate at the end of 2016. Inflation has slowed and will likely stay within the target range of the national bank. GDP has been growing mainly on the back of investment, while consumer demand has been sluggish. Growth of the economy will accelerate during 2017-2019, but the growth rate will be lower than in the pre-2015 years – at 2 3% annually. Investment will continue to be the main driver of growth.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| Population, 1000 persons. | 17289 | 17544 | 17800 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 18200 | 18700 | 18600 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 0.3 | -1.6 | -1.1 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 508 | 513 | 376 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 6.7 | 6.6 | 14.6 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.7 | -2.2 | -1.6 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 14.6 | 22.7 | 25.5 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 2.8 | -2.8 | -6.3 | -2.4 | -1.9 | -2.2 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 5437 | 5819 | 15947 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 77.7 | 84.3 | 128.2 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
KAZAKHSTAN: Benefiting from higher oil prices
Olga Pindyuk
in: Cautious Upturn in CESEE: Haunted by the Spectre of Uncertainty
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2017, March 2017 , pp. 77-80
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2016
Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Simona Jokubauskaite, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2016
25 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure
