map Kazakhstan
Despite real GDP decline of 1.4% in Q1 2021, the short-time indicator for January-May points to an incipient broad recovery (2%). The strong performance in manufacturing over the first five months (7.2%) is especially visible in the automotive sector (26.4%), pharmaceuticals (25.7%) and the production of construction materials (21.4%). Construction grew by 11.3%, boosted by the new opportunity to finance housing construction from surplus pension savings, and retail sales grew by 7.5%. Mining still posted a 4.9% decline, but the recent easing of OPEC+ oil production cuts should favour a recovery later this year. The recent increase in budget spending of 1.7% of GDP will not have an impact on the deficit, thanks to the higher tax revenues. Although inflation overshot its target to reach 7.2% in January-May (year on year), the policy rate has so far remained unchanged.

Our economic growth forecast for 2021 has been revised upwards to 3.5% (from 3.2%), thanks to the recent strong performance, higher-than-expected oil prices, better prospects for global recovery and new fiscal stimulus. However, the late start to mass vaccination and the low vaccination rate render the recovery vulnerable to a resurgence of the pandemic. Stronger growth of above 4% is expected only in the coming years.
Main Economic Indicators201820192020202120222023
Population, 1000 persons182761851418756...
GDP, real change in %4.14.5-
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)177401848018020...
Gross industrial production, real change in %4.44.1-0.5...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average4.
Average gross monthly wages, EUR400436452...
Consumer prices, % p.a.
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-1.4-1.9-4.0-3.5-2.5-2.0
Public debt in % of GDP26.024.930.5...
Current account in % of GDP-0.1-4.0-3.8-2.7-1.8-0.9
FDI inflow, EUR m7133226488...
Gross external debt in % of GDP91.987.388.9...

Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.


Monthly Report No. 7-8/2021

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanovic, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2021
42 pages including 4 Tables and 15 Figures



KAZAKHSTAN: Rapid recovery in doubt

Alexandra Bykova
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 77-81
Details and Buy