Kazakhstan

map Kazakhstan
Notwithstanding a fall in global oil prices of 18% year on year in 2023, Kazakhstan ended the year with estimated GDP growth of 4.9%, making it one of the best-performing economies in CESEE. The main drivers of economic growth were primarily domestic. Private consumption was supported by credit growth and a minimum wage hike: retail trade grew by 7.7% in real terms, despite the double-digit inflation. Investments posted 14.6% annual growth over the first 11 months of 2023, owing to infrastructure investment projects in transport and logistics, as well as investments in the modernisation of utilities. As a result, strong demand led to rapidly rising imports, which had an offsetting adverse impact. Economic growth will remain strong in 2024 at 4.2%, supported by the 21.4% rise in the minimum wage in January 2024 and continuing infrastructure investments. In 2025, economic growth is expected to accelerate following the completion of the Tengiz oil field expansion, which should boost the country’s oil production by 10%. In 2026, GDP will grow by around 4% again. Monetary policy easing, which started in October 2023, is expected to continue; however, possible new fiscal stimulus, a relaxation of fuel price regulation and tariff hikes could limit its speed. After several years of large fiscal support packages, gradual fiscal consolidation is likely in the medium term, with a possible hike in VAT from 12% to 16%.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202120222023202420252026
Population, 1000 persons1900119635....
GDP, real change in %4.33.25.14.24.64.2
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)1910020470....
Gross industrial production, real change in %3.61.24.3...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average4.94.94.74.74.74.7
Average gross monthly wages, EUR497640735...
Consumer prices, % p.a.8.015.014.79.07.06.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-3.0-2.1-2.7-2.6-2.4-2.3
Public debt in % of GDP27.625.7....
Current account in % of GDP-1.43.1-3.7-3.0-1.7-1.5
FDI inflow, EUR m38614685....
Gross external debt in % of GDP87.270.4....


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2024

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2024
50 pages including 5 Tables and 18 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Branimir Jovanović
in: Beneath the Veneer of Calm
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2023, October 2023 , pp. I-VI
Details


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