Kazakhstan
A substantial anti-crisis package is mitigating the impact on the economy of two lockdowns and low oil prices. The cut in oil production, in line with the OPEC+ agreement, will hinder any strong revival of exports in coming years. Thanks to a massive fiscal stimulus, real GDP in 2020 is expected to fall by only 3%. Economic growth will resume in 2021, but will be moderate, at 2.5%; in 2022, it will accelerate to 4%. Further lockdowns and the absence of any recovery in oil prices are the main downside risks to the forecast.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 18038 | 18276 | 18514 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.5 | -3.0 | 2.5 | 4.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 17020 | 17200 | 17950 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 7.3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | -0.7 | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 4.8 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 409 | 400 | 436 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 7.4 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 5.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.7 | -1.4 | -1.9 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 25.7 | 26.0 | 24.9 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -3.1 | -0.1 | -4.0 | -3.5 | -3.3 | -3.4 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 4171 | 71 | 3010 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 94.9 | 91.9 | 87.3 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
KAZAKHSTAN: Fiscal policy to the rescue
Alexandra Bykova
in: No Quick Recovery in Sight, with Coronavirus Risks Looming Large
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2020, November 2020 , pp. 68-72
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures