Kazakhstan

map Kazakhstan
After decade-high economic growth of 6.5% in 2025, the economy is expected to slow this year to 4.5%. The boost from the Tengiz oil field expansion, which lifted oil output by 13.5% in 2025, will be over, while the projected decline in oil prices will reduce exports and budget revenues. The drone damage to the Russian Black Sea oil loading terminal in December led to a significant decline in oil production in January, amidst a shortage of storage capacity and a lack of any real alternative to the current transportation route, which handles 80% of Kazakh oil exports. Besides, recent drone attacks on international tankers waiting for Kazakh oil loading have raised concerns about further disruptions and losses.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202320242025202620272028
Population, 1000 persons1990020159....
GDP, real change in %5.15.06.54.55.05.0
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)2553026900....
Gross industrial production, real change in %4.43.27.5...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average4.74.74.64.64.54.5
Average gross monthly wages, EUR738798....
Consumer prices, % p.a.14.58.711.410.08.06.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-2.4-2.6-2.8-2.5-2.0-1.5
Public debt in % of GDP24.024.724.0...
Current account in % of GDP-3.6-2.7-3.9-4.3-4.5-4.5
FDI inflow, EUR m52931829-778...
Gross external debt in % of GDP60.858.657.7...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

publication_icon

Monthly Report No. 1/2026

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2026
58 pages including 6 Tables and 15 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details


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