Kazakhstan
A large part of the deterioration in Kazakhstan’s economic performance will be due to the trade sector and the disruption it has faced in the wake of the Coronavirus restrictions. The low oil prices also mean that export earnings will plunge, draining budget revenues and putting pressure on the tenge. A large government support package, coupled with administrative measures, will go some way towards mitigating the shocks to the economy and the labour market. Because of a good performance in the first quarter, we expect GDP to decline by only 3% in 2020. The recovery next year is anticipated to be weak, at 2%, with low consumption growth and only a partial rebound in exports.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 18038 | 18276 | 18514 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.5 | -3.0 | 2.0 | . |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 17060 | 17840 | 18540 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 7.3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 5.0 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 409 | 400 | 436 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 7.4 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 5.0 | . |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.7 | -1.4 | -1.9 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 25.7 | 26.0 | 24.9 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -3.1 | -0.1 | -4.0 | -6.0 | -4.0 | . |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 4171 | 71 | 3010 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 94.9 | 91.9 | 87.3 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Due to the unusually high level of uncertainty caused by COVID-19, we only present forecasts for 2020-2021.
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures
KAZAKHSTAN: Domestic demand spurring growth despite external headwinds
Alexandra Bykova
in: Uncertainty in Turbulent Times
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2020, March 2020 , pp. 95-98
Details and Buy