Kazakhstan
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 19635 | 19900 | 20160 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 22980 | 25520 | 27240 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 1.2 | 4.4 | 2.8 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 640 | 738 | 796 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 15.0 | 14.5 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 6.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.1 | -2.4 | -2.7 | -2.4 | -2.3 | -2.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 25.7 | 24.0 | 25.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 2.9 | -3.6 | -1.3 | -1.5 | -1.3 | -1.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 4833 | 5382 | -630 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 70.6 | 60.7 | 59.3 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 1/2025
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej J. Grodzicki, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2025
50 pages including 6 Tables and 13 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
Economic growth accelerated in H2 2024, driven by private consumption, with retail trade gaining momentum. Strong domestic demand, numerous new investment projects stimulated by targeted state policy and progress in the development of the Middle Corridor trade route led to a solid result in several sectors of the economy. Construction, transport and logistics, and manufacturing are likely to maintain their momentum in 2025, as the main factors driving growth will remain. We expect a recovery in the oil sector to provide an additional fillip to economic growth, as production in the Tengiz oil field expands in Q2. As the 2% decline in the oil sector last year impacted exports and investments in the oil sector, these are also likely to recover. The economy’s weakness at the start of 2024 and the resultant shortfall in budget revenue meant that the budget deficit was larger than expected and had to be partly covered by additional transfers from the National Oil Fund. In line with fiscal consolidation, the pension fund contributions of companies will be gradually raised in the coming years. Consumer inflation picked up again in October, as utilities tariff hikes impacted on the services component. This development, additional fiscal stimulus and speculative attacks on the tenge (coinciding with fresh sanctions on Russian banks) forced the central bank to end monetary easing and led to a hike in the policy rate back to the January 2024 level of 15.25%. However, we expect inflation to slow and monetary easing to resume later in 2025. In sum, we project that real GDP growth will accelerate to 4.9% in 2025, before falling back to 4.5% in 2026-2027. Kazakhstan is likely to remain one of the best-performing economies in CESEE. Downside risks stem from stubborn inflation and prolonged tight monetary policy, new OPEC+ production cuts and possible disruptions on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium oil pipeline on Russian territory.