map Kazakhstan
The economy ended 2022 with broad-based growth of around 3%, despite weak retail trade and oil production disruption. Economic sentiment was showing signs of a slight deterioration towards the end of the year. Consumption growth is expected to remain moderate in 2023, as real incomes are constrained further by stubbornly high inflation (which may be further fuelled by the increase in the minimum wage and pensions). This is in spite of the last policy rate hike in December, which was billed as marking the end of the tightening cycle. We expect real oil exports to increase this year, although the risk of disruption remains high. However, the lower global oil prices mean that oil revenues will be moderate in US dollar terms, which will increase the pressure for depreciation. Substantial public and private investment – especially in transport and logistics infrastructure projects and new manufacturing facilities under the import-substitution strategy – will be the main growth driver in 2023. We expect GDP growth to reach 3.5% in 2023 and to accelerate to 4% a year in 2024-2025, as lower inflation takes the brakes off consumption.
Main Economic Indicators202020212022202320242025
Population, 1000 persons187561900119634...
GDP, real change in %-
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)175201902019400...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average4.
Average gross monthly wages, EUR452497640...
Consumer prices, % p.a.
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-4.0-3.0-2.1-2.7-2.6-2.0
Public debt in % of GDP30.527.626.2...
Current account in % of GDP-4.4-
FDI inflow, EUR m632438766094...
Gross external debt in % of GDP89.587.573.9...

Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.


Monthly Report No. 1/2023

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2023
44 pages including 4 Tables and 16 Figures



Executive summary

Branimir Jovanović
in: Bracing for the Winter
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2022, October 2022 , pp. I-VIII