map Kazakhstan
The economy started off 2023 better than expected, with GDP growth of 4.9% year on year in Q1, driven by construction, trade, transport, communication and manufacturing. Still, producer sentiment is lacking any clear upwards trend. Oil production grew by 3% year on year in the first four months, but forthcoming maintenance work and OPEC+ production cuts will moderate the whole-year result. Consumer sentiment has been deteriorating amid a Q1 real-wage decline of 0.6% year on year. Though it has slowed, consumer inflation remained above 15% in May, and the expectation is that it will remain high. Monetary policy easing has been delayed, with the policy rate left at 16.75%. Pro-inflationary factors are mainly domestic: fiscal support, increased regulated fuel prices and anticipated hikes in housing rents. Lower global oil prices have led us to revise our current account forecast for 2023 downwards, to -2% of GDP. Subdued consumption and weak oil exports are likely to drag economic performance down in the second half of the year. However, in view of higher-than-expected investment, especially in transport and logistics, and an overall robust growth in previous months, we have revised our GDP forecast for 2023 upwards, to 4.5%.
Main Economic Indicators202020212022202320242025
Population, 1000 persons187561900119635...
GDP, real change in %-
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)175401910020470...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average4.
Average gross monthly wages, EUR452497640...
Consumer prices, % p.a.
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-4.0-3.0-2.1-2.7-2.5-2.0
Public debt in % of GDP30.527.625.7...
Current account in % of GDP-6.4-1.33.5-2.0-2.0-2.4
FDI inflow, EUR m631238464667...
Gross external debt in % of GDP89.287.270.3...

Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.


Monthly Report No. 7-8/2023

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2023
51 pages including 3 Tables, 24 Figures and 1 Box



Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: Sailing Through Rough Waters
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2023, April 2023 , pp. I-VI