Kazakhstan
Rising global oil prices are providing an unexpected windfall to the Kazakhstani economy, which has been expanding mainly on the back of the oil sector. The GDP growth forecast is revised upwards for 2018 – to 4%, owing to stronger export performance. In 2019-2020, as global oil prices are expected to fall, GDP growth will come down to 3% per annum. Kazakhstan’s banking system remains vulnerable as banks have not yet been able to clean their balance sheets from distressed assets.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 17543 | 17794 | 18038 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 1.2 | 1.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 18900 | 18600 | 19200 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -1.6 | -1.1 | 7.3 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 513 | 377 | 409 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 6.6 | 14.6 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.2 | -1.6 | -2.8 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 22.7 | 25.0 | 26.9 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -2.8 | -6.5 | -3.4 | -1.2 | -1.5 | -1.9 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 5755 | 15163 | 4020 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 84.3 | 126.0 | 99.5 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 6/2018
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2018
27 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure
KAZAKHSTAN: Oil sector growth benefits few
Olga Pindyuk
in: Riding the Global Growth Wave
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2018, March 2018 , pp. 101-105
Details and Buy