map Czechia
The economy struggled during the second half of 2023, owing primarily to weaker export performance as the German economy stuttered. Survey data indicate sluggish demand from both domestic and external sources over the winter, and firms drew down stocks as weak sales expectations limited purchases of new inventory. Household spending also continued to contract in Q3 2023, although the pace of decline moderated relative to Q2. Amid weak demand, inflation is falling fast, and at the end of December 2023 the central bank embarked on a monetary easing cycle – which it will continue, albeit cautiously, in 2024. The koruna may weaken slightly versus the euro in 2024, but will remain generally stronger than over the past few years. High-frequency data do not suggest that any sharp upturn in the economy is imminent – particularly in industry, which continues to suffer from German weakness. Nevertheless, we expect a gradual improvement in economic growth in 2024 and during the remainder of the forecast period. This will be supported by lower inflation, higher real income growth, lower interest rates, EU funds inflows and a gradual upturn in external demand. We now expect higher fiscal deficits than previously during the forecast period, despite austerity measures that have led to large-scale protests, although the shortfall should remain well below 3% of GDP. After three years of deficits, the current account will return to moderate surplus over the forecast period, as exports expand and import price growth moderates.
Main Economic Indicators202120222023202420252026
Population, 1000 persons105061067210850...
GDP, real change in %3.62.4-
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)299903204034190...
Gross industrial production, real change in %6.82.1-1.3...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average2.
Average gross monthly wages, EUR149316411806...
Consumer prices, % p.a.3.314.812.
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-5.1-3.2-3.3-2.5-2.0-1.5
Public debt in % of GDP42.044.244.4...
Current account in % of GDP-2.8-
FDI inflow, EUR m1095387297620...
Gross external debt in % of GDP76.367.461.1...

Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.


Monthly Report No. 1/2024

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2024
50 pages including 5 Tables and 18 Figures



CZECHIA: In the slow lane

Zuzana Zavarská
in: Beneath the Veneer of Calm
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2023, October 2023 , pp. 68-71