North Macedonia

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Inflation came down faster than expected, falling to below 4% at the end of 2023. Our new projection is that it will average 3.5% in 2024 – significantly lower than the previous forecast of 5%. The slowdown in inflation means that real wages have begun to gain ground again, growing by more than 10% in the final months of 2023. The real wage growth is likely to stay around for some time, boosting consumption in the first half of 2024. That will be accompanied by the fiscal support package that the government has announced ahead of the parliamentary and presidential elections in April and May 2024. Growth will likely slow in the second half of the year, as the fiscal support package – which includes temporary rises in pensions and various transfers to different groups of people – runs out. Furthermore, there may be uncertainty about the formation of the new government and its future course, especially regarding the constitutional changes that are required before EU accession talks can start. Nevertheless, we are upgrading our GDP growth forecast for 2024 – though only slightly, to 2.2% (0.2 percentage points higher than our previous forecast).
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202120222023202420252026
Population, 1000 persons18371832....
GDP, real change in %4.52.21.62.22.63.0
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)1411015010....
Gross industrial production, real change in %1.5-0.30.7...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average15.714.413.012.011.010.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR696773....
Consumer prices, % p.a.3.214.29.43.53.02.5
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-5.4-4.4-4.0-3.5-2.5-2.0
Public debt in % of GDP51.450.450.0...
Current account in % of GDP-2.8-6.10.0-2.5-2.3-2.0
FDI inflow, EUR m575788....
Gross external debt in % of GDP80.982.8....


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2024

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2024
50 pages including 5 Tables and 18 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Branimir Jovanović
in: Beneath the Veneer of Calm
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2023, October 2023 , pp. I-VI
Details


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