North Macedonia
Since May, North Macedonia has failed to contain the pandemic. The government has also not provided adequate fiscal support to the economy. That led to a decline in GDP in Q2 of 12.7% year on year, which was greater than expected. We are thus downgrading our GDP forecast for 2020 from -5% to -6%. Prospects for the future depend crucially on the government’s fiscal support and on management of the health aspects of the pandemic.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 2075 | 2076 | 2077 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 1.1 | 2.9 | 3.2 | -6.0 | 4.5 | 4.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 10790 | 11340 | 11850 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 0.2 | 5.4 | 3.7 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 22.4 | 20.7 | 17.3 | 17.0 | 16.5 | 16.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 547 | 579 | 609 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.8 | -1.1 | -2.2 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 39.4 | 40.4 | 40.6 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -1.0 | -0.1 | -3.3 | -5.2 | -4.5 | -3.7 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 351 | 539 | 488 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 73.4 | 73.0 | 72.7 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
NORTH MACEDONIA: Pandemic mishandling and inadequate fiscal support take toll on the economy
Branimir Jovanovic
in: No Quick Recovery in Sight, with Coronavirus Risks Looming Large
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2020, November 2020 , pp. 92-95
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures