North Macedonia
North Macedonia’s foreign trade market will likely underperform in 2020, as output is closely linked to the crisis-hit European car industry. GDP is expected to decline by 5% this year, due to lack of demand – both domestic and external. The expected recovery in 2021 will depend greatly on whether public investment picks up. Weak imports will lead to a reduction in North Macedonia’s current account deficit in 2020 and 2021.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 2075 | 2076 | 2100 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 1.1 | 2.7 | 3.6 | -5.0 | 4.0 | . |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 10900 | 11500 | 12000 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 0.2 | 5.4 | 3.7 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 22.4 | 20.7 | 17.3 | 21.0 | 19.0 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 547 | 579 | 609 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | -1.0 | 0.4 | . |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.8 | -1.1 | -2.1 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 47.6 | 48.6 | 48.8 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -1.0 | -0.1 | -2.8 | -2.5 | -1.5 | . |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 351 | 539 | 423 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 73.4 | 73.3 | 72.2 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Forecasts as of March 2020 considering the effect of COVID-19 with a severe scenario. Due to this uncertain situation we only offer forecasts for GDP.
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures
NORTH MACEDONIA: Lingering EU uncertainty inhibits potential growth
Bernd Christoph Ströhm
in: Uncertainty in Turbulent Times
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2020, March 2020 , pp. 119-122
Details and Buy