Slovakia
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 5432 | 5427 | 5422 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 0.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 25640 | 28350 | 29900 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -4.5 | 3.8 | 0.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.4 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1304 | 1430 | 1524 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 12.1 | 11.0 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.7 | -5.2 | -5.3 | -4.9 | -4.2 | -4.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 57.7 | 55.6 | 59.3 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -9.6 | -0.9 | -2.8 | -3.5 | -2.8 | -2.3 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 4607 | -303 | 3308 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 105.5 | 95.3 | 100.3 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2025
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2025
38 pages including 5 Tables and 3 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
In Q1 2025, Slovakia recorded one of the lowest growth rates in the euro area: just 0.9% year on year. Household consumption provided only modest support for growth: with fiscal consolidation commencing at the start of the year, VAT increased from 20% to 23%, which undermined household sentiment. Investment declined sharply, while restocking lifted gross capital formation. Exports grew at a respectable pace, but imports increased even more strongly, so that net exports made a negative contribution to GDP growth. Although the industrial sector declined at the beginning of the year, Slovakia’s key automotive industry performed well, expanding by 13% in the first four months of 2025. The growth forecast for this year has been revised downward to 1.4%, on the back of rising global uncertainty and trade tensions, which could have a particular impact on Slovakia’s small, open economy and its vital automotive sector. As well as the transition towards electric mobility, stricter controls on rare earth exports from China will create fresh challenges for the automotive industry. Domestically, fiscal consolidation is weighing not only on household demand, but also on private-sector investment. The political situation only adds to the uncertainty, with recent trends under the government of Prime Minister Fico raising concerns over the rule of law and media independence.