Slovakia
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 5454 | 5459 | 5447 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.6 | -4.4 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 3.4 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 21750 | 20940 | 22020 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 0.4 | -9.0 | 10.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.8 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 5.7 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1092 | 1133 | 1211 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.8 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 10.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.3 | -5.5 | -6.2 | -5.1 | -4.1 | -3.4 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 48.1 | 59.7 | 63.1 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -3.4 | 0.4 | -2.0 | -4.4 | -4.5 | -4.2 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 2042 | -214 | 818 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 112.7 | 120.5 | 137.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2022
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Bernhard Moshammer, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2022
58 pages including 4 Tables and 21 Figures
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Executive summary
Vasily Astrov
in: Overshadowed by War and Sanctions
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2022, April 2022 , pp. I-VII
Details
GDP grew by 3% year on year in Q1 2022 and finally reached pre-crisis levels. This was, however, one of the lowest growth rates in the EU and was affected by poor results in the industrial sector. Household consumption was the main driver with 9% growth, which was due to the low base compared with last year, when a COVID-19 lockdown was in place. Also, gross capital formation – which was about the same as gross fixed capital formation – contributed to growth and increased by 6%. Construction finally grew after three years of decline. Net exports had a negative impact: while exports declined by 4.5%, imports fell by just 1.3% (in real terms). The main Slovak industry, the automotive industry, is still in trouble. Overall, in the first four months of 2022 industrial production dropped by 4%, but the automotive sector contracted by a substantial 11%. The industry suffers particularly from the continuing shortage of semiconductors and the disruption of supply chains caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Negative risks are rising and cloud the outlook: growth has been revised downward for both 2022 and the next year, to 2.2% and 2.8%, respectively. The main concern is high inflation, which risks dampening household consumption and investment. Overall, the harmonised index of consumer prices reached 9% for the first four months of 2022, while producer prices were up by 28%. Still, prospects are good for investment this year and next, as the EU budgeting period ends/starts and funds from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) will be distributed soon. Slovakia managed to fulfil the 14 milestones and on 29 April made the first payment request for a disbursement of EUR 398.7m. Trends in net exports are also negative and are also influenced by the strict zero-COVID policy in China (e.g. the lockdown in Shanghai in April and May) and the continuing war in Ukraine. Not included in this forecast is a full stop to the supply of gas, on which Slovakia is particularly dependent, but which has become increasingly probable.