Slovakia
Better growth prospects lie ahead. We have revised our growth forecast for this year upwards, to 4% (from 3.6%), and have maintained the same forecast for 2022 (4.4%). Household consumption will recover modestly, and the good export performance should continue. Investment should recover this year and will play a major role in future years, with the next EU Multiannual Financial Framework commencing and additional funds from the Recovery and Resilience Facility becoming available (EUR 6.3bn were approved on 21 June). The downside risks include the pandemic and a shortage of semiconductors, which could affect the Slovak automotive industry. Among the upside risks is a stronger than expected global recovery.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 5447 | 5454 | 5459 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.7 | 2.5 | -4.8 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 3.9 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 21360 | 21870 | 21260 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 4.4 | 0.4 | -9.0 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 6.5 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 7.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1013 | 1092 | 1133 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.0 | -1.3 | -6.1 | -7.1 | -5.1 | -4.1 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 49.7 | 48.2 | 60.3 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -2.2 | -2.7 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 1906 | 2067 | -213 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 114.9 | 112.4 | 121.2 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 9/2021
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Olga Pindyuk and Leon Podkaminer
wiiw Monthly Report No. 9, September 2021
49 pages including 28 Figures
publication_icon
SLOVAKIA: Uncertainties prevail
Doris Hanzl-Weiss
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 123-126
Details and Buy
Slovak GDP increased by just 0.2% year on year in Q1 2021. Recovery was hampered by lockdown and followed the 3.5% decline recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2020. Household consumption declined by 5.8%, while the negative sentiment and uncertainties over the path of the pandemic proved a drag on investment; gross fixed capital formation fell by 10% year on year. On the other hand, the positive trends in exports seen in Q3 and Q4 2020 continued into 2021, and net exports contributed positively to growth: real exports increased by 10% in Q1 2021, while imports grew by 5.4%. Better growth prospects lie ahead. We have revised our growth forecast for this year upwards, to 4% (from 3.6%), and have maintained the same forecast for 2022 (4.4%). Household consumption will recover modestly, and the good export performance should continue. Investment should recover this year and will play a major role in future years, with the next EU Multiannual Financial Framework commencing and additional funds from the Recovery and Resilience Facility becoming available (EUR 6.3bn were approved on 21 June). The downside risks include the pandemic and a shortage of semiconductors, which could affect the Slovak automotive industry. Among the upside risks is a stronger than expected global recovery.