Slovakia
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 5432 | 5427 | . | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 0.4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 25650 | 28150 | . | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -4.5 | 4.2 | . | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.3 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1304 | 1430 | . | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 12.1 | 11.0 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 3.4 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.7 | -5.2 | -5.8 | -5.0 | -4.2 | -3.2 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 57.7 | 56.1 | . | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -9.6 | -1.7 | -1.7 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.2 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 4607 | -303 | . | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 105.4 | 96.0 | . | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 1/2025
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej J. Grodzicki, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2025
50 pages including 6 Tables and 13 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
Slovakia experienced decent growth of around 2% in 2024, with a strong start to the year, but a steady downward trend thereafter. Household consumption was the main driver of growth, supported by a big rise in real wages. By contrast, investment fell – although there was a major replenishment of inventories. Meanwhile, net exports made a negative contribution to GDP growth, as the growth of imports outstripped that of exports. The important automobile industry proved volatile during 2024, although it ended the year on a strong note. We expect growth again to reach 2% in 2025, improving to 2.2% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027. That said, the figures for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downward, on account of the anticipated impact of fiscal consolidation. Starting in 2025, this includes a VAT increase, a rise in corporate income tax and a new financial transaction tax. The higher VAT will further push up inflation, which had anyway started to edge up toward the end of 2024, due to rising food prices. This trend will be moderated somewhat by the energy subsidies, which – against all expectations – were extended in mid-December and will keep energy prices low. The higher inflation means that households will become more cautious. Investors will also be careful, on account of the financial transaction tax, which will mean higher costs for companies. Public investment, on the other hand, should be supported by the more rapid inflow of EU funds. Risks remain skewed to the downside. Domestically, political developments remain of concern, and the ongoing destruction of the cultural sphere has sparked protest. Externally, Germany – Slovakia’s main trading partner – is not doing well economically, trade protectionism is on the rise and higher US tariffs could hurt Slovakia’s important car exports to the US.