Belarus
Defying the COVID-19 threat, Belarus has not yet declared a formal lockdown. The economic fallout from the pandemic has been increasing through both internal and external transmission channels. Rather late in the day, the authorities have launched a series of policy support measures, but their funding will depend on the government’s ability to raise additional external finance. A notable downturn seems inevitable in 2020, with GDP falling by more than 5%.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 9498 | 9484 | 9442 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | -5.3 | -0.7 | . |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 13200 | 14000 | 14400 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 6.1 | 5.7 | 1.0 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate reg., in %, end of period | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | . | . | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 377 | 405 | 467 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 6.0 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 7.0 | . |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.5 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 53.4 | 43.7 | 42.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -1.7 | 0.0 | -1.8 | -2.7 | -3.5 | . |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 1130 | 1212 | 1139 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 68.9 | 67.3 | 64.4 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Due to the unusually high level of uncertainty caused by COVID-19, we only present forecasts for 2020-2021.
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures
BELARUS: Economic weakness becoming a chronic challenge
Rumen Dobrinsky
in: Uncertainty in Turbulent Times
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2020, March 2020 , pp. 66-70
Details and Buy