Belarus
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 9303 | 9228 | 9178 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.4 | -4.7 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 14540 | 15130 | 16090 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 6.5 | -5.4 | 7.7 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 482 | 588 | 590 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 9.5 | 15.2 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 0.2 | -1.5 | -1.0 | -1.5 | -1.0 | -1.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 41.2 | 42.0 | 41.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 3.1 | 3.5 | -1.4 | -2.0 | -1.3 | -0.9 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 1044 | 1536 | 1912 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 62.7 | 53.5 | 49.8 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2024
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2024
45 pages including 5 Tables and 12 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
Recent short-term indicators suggest that after slowing down towards the end of 2023, economic performance in Belarus strengthened at the beginning of 2024: in Q1, GDP grew by 4.1% year on year and industrial output surged by 6.5%. The available monthly statistics for April suggest a further invigoration of economic activity. Moreover, all indicators point to a broad-based recovery that is also to be observed in agriculture, construction and the services sectors – including, for the first time since 2022, the ICT sector. Because of the very tight labour market and the reported labour shortages in many industries, real wages and disposable incomes have kept on rising. Consumer prices have also been increasing, reversing the prevailing trend of 2023. The embargo imposed back in 2022 on the publication of certain important statistics (especially regarding the composition and direction of foreign trade) precludes any more detailed assessment of the drivers of the current upswing but most likely, local manufacturers and exporters benefited from the strong upturn in Russia at the start of 2024. In addition, domestic policies remained accommodative and various forms of additional support from Russia were still in place. Taking account of these recent developments, we have revised upwards our forecast for GDP growth in 2024 – to 3.5% (up 1.5 percentage points from spring). The forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged, reflecting the long-term structural challenges faced by the Belarusian economy.