Belarus

The economy has rebounded thanks to an improving external environment and a policy stimulus engineered through wage rises. Real disposable income rose sharply supporting an upturn in private consumption. GDP growth was entirely driven by domestic demand while net exports made a negative contribution. Recent indicators suggest that growth has passed its peak and will decelerate. In 2018 as a whole GDP could rise by 3.7%, but thereafter will likely slow down to around 3% in the following years.

map Belarus
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201520162017201820192020
Population, 1000 persons949095029498...
GDP, real change in %-3.8-2.52.43.73.02.8
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)139001330013700...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-6.6-0.46.1...
Unemployment rate reg., in %, end of period1.00.80.50.50.50.5
Average gross monthly wages, EUR377328377...
Consumer prices, % p.a.13.511.86.05.07.08.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP1.41.53.0...
Public debt in % of GDP53.053.948.0...
Current account in % of GDP-3.3-3.4-1.6-2.5-2.8-3.1
FDI inflow, EUR mn150611331130...
Gross external debt in % of GDP69.483.369.4...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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BELARUS: Recovery driven by external factors and policy stimulus

Rumen Dobrinsky
in: Strong Growth Amid Increased Negative Risks
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2018, November 2018 , pp. 64-67
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Monthly Report No. 6/2018

Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2018
27 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure

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