Belarus
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 9228 | 9178 | . | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -4.7 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 17840 | 20180 | . | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -5.4 | 7.7 | 5.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 593 | 590 | 647 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 15.2 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 5.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -0.8 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 42.0 | 40.6 | . | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 3.6 | -1.5 | -1.3 | -1.7 | -1.8 | -2.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 1529 | 1842 | . | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 53.2 | 49.2 | . | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 1/2025
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej J. Grodzicki, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2025
50 pages including 6 Tables and 13 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
In 2024, GDP grew by nearly 4.0%, despite expectations at the beginning of the year of stagnation caused by Western sanctions and worsening macroeconomic imbalances. A surge in domestic demand, supported by a fresh wave of export expansion, outweighed these growth-restricting factors. Household consumption was the primary driver of the growth in domestic demand, fuelled by rising real wages amid labour shortages and upbeat consumer sentiment. Export growth was bolstered by increased demand in Russia – and presumably some gains in the export of potash fertilisers elsewhere. On the supply side, manufacturing, trade and construction were the main contributors to GDP growth last year. However, by the end of 2024, GDP growth had weakened, while macroeconomic imbalances had deepened. Export expansion slowed due to the lack of available production capacities, sanctions-related logistical obstacles and slacker demand in Russia. Meanwhile, imports rose considerably, driven by overheated domestic demand. Although inflation stood at a mere 5.2% in 2024, inflationary pressures had intensified by the end of the year, as it became increasingly difficult to maintain price controls because of the associated financial problems facing firms. An expanding trade deficit and inflationary pressures limit the potential for further growth in domestic demand in 2025. Additionally, an anticipated slowdown in Russia’s growth is expected to further constrain economic activity, resulting in GDP growth of only around 2.0% this year. Russia’s high inflation will increasingly be imported into Belarus, prompting the government to relax price controls. In such a scenario, inflation could climb to approximately 8% in 2025.