Belarus

map Belarus
After a small decline in GDP of 0.25% in Q1 2026, growth accelerated to around 3.2% in Q2. The main reason was Russia’s petrol shortage following Ukrainian attacks on its refineries; this resulted in a significant increase in Belarusian supplies of oil products to the Russian market. Moreover, potash fertiliser exports expanded as well, thanks to the recent lifting of US sanctions. All this gave rise to a fresh wave of domestic demand expansion, and is expected to bring GDP growth to 1.9% in 2026 as a whole. However, we expect growth to cool to 1-1.5% in 2027-2028, accompanied by elevated inflation of around 5-6%.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202320242025202620272028
Population, 1000 persons917891339083...
GDP, real change in %4.14.31.31.91.21.3
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)200202118022140...
Gross industrial production, real change in %7.75.4-1.8...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average3.53.02.52.52.62.7
Average gross monthly wages, EUR590652775...
Consumer prices, % p.a.5.15.76.75.35.75.5
Fiscal balance in % of GDP1.21.30.50.1-0.3-0.5
Public debt in % of GDP40.638.635.0...
Current account in % of GDP-1.0-2.1-1.2-1.2-0.9-0.6
FDI inflow, EUR m184216051462...
Gross external debt in % of GDP49.246.139.2...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2026

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Ioannis Gutzianas, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Isilda Mara, Michał Możdżeń, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2026
52 pages including 5 Tables

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
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