Belarus
The Belarus economy is undergoing a painful adjustment and a prolonged recession. In 2016, GDP plunged by 2.6%, after falling by 3.8% the previous year. A dispute with Russia over the pricing of gas provoked Russia to reduce its oil supplies, which hit the Belarusian processing industry and exports. At the same time, a change in policy helped lower inflation. The final months of the year brought some positive signs that growth may resume in the coming years.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| Population, 1000 persons. | 9475 | 9490 | 9502 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 1.7 | -3.8 | -2.6 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 13900 | 13700 | 13500 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 2.0 | -6.6 | -0.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate reg., in %, end of period | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 458 | 377 | 328 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 18.1 | 13.5 | 11.8 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 38.4 | 38.7 | 39.2 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -6.7 | -3.3 | -3.6 | -3.5 | -4.4 | -4.5 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 1445 | 1506 | 1131 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 54.1 | 69.4 | 84.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
BELARUS: Turning the corner?
Rumen Dobrinsky
in: Cautious Upturn in CESEE: Haunted by the Spectre of Uncertainty
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2017, March 2017 , pp. 46-50
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2016
Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Simona Jokubauskaite, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2016
25 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure
