Belarus
The economy has rebounded thanks to an improving external environment and a policy stimulus engineered through wage rises. Real disposable income rose sharply supporting an upturn in private consumption. GDP growth was entirely driven by domestic demand while net exports made a negative contribution. Recent indicators suggest that growth has passed its peak and will decelerate. In 2018 as a whole GDP could rise by 3.7%, but thereafter will likely slow down to around 3% in the following years.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 9502 | 9498 | 9484 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -2.5 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.8 | . |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 13200 | 13400 | 14000 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -0.4 | 6.1 | 5.7 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate reg., in %, end of period | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 328 | 377 | 396 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 11.8 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 8.0 | . |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 1.5 | 3.0 | 4.1 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 53.5 | 53.4 | 44.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -3.4 | -1.6 | -2.0 | -2.8 | -3.1 | . |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 1133 | 1130 | 1000 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 83.3 | 69.0 | 70.3 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
BELARUS: Recovery driven by external factors and policy stimulus
Rumen Dobrinsky
in: Strong Growth Amid Increased Negative Risks
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2018, November 2018 , pp. 64-67
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 6/2018
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2018
27 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure