Belarus
While the short-term indicators suggest that growth accelerated further in the following months, this was likely a one-off development and growth will slow in the second half of the year. Following the forced landing of a Ryanair plane in May, the EU imposed sectoral sanctions on Belarus, targeting industries such as petroleum products, potash fertilisers and tobacco-related products (meanwhile, Belarus has announced in response that it is leaving the EU Eastern Partnership). Still, GDP growth in 2021 as a whole may somewhat exceed the spring forecast, reaching 2.5%. However, the balance-of-payments constraints are of a lasting nature, putting the brakes on domestic demand. In consequence, sluggish economic performance will likely prevail in the years ahead.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 9484 | 9443 | 9380 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.1 | 1.4 | -0.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 13120 | 13750 | 13920 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 5.7 | 1.0 | -0.7 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.8 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 405 | 468 | 449 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 4.9 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 4.0 | 2.4 | -1.7 | -2.0 | -2.0 | -1.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 47.5 | 41.0 | 48.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 0.0 | -1.9 | -0.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 1212 | 1139 | 1220 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 67.3 | 63.1 | 65.1 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2021
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanovic, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2021
42 pages including 4 Tables and 15 Figures
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BELARUS: Trapped in a shaky economic situation
Rumen Dobrinsky
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 47-51
Details and Buy
In the first quarter of 2021, GDP grew by 0.9% year on year. Aside from deteriorating relations with the West, the external economic environment in the early months was favourable, and the rising oil and commodity prices provided a windfall to the economy. Increasingly isolated, the Belarusian leadership has sought to secure greater economic support from Russia. Trade links with Russia have been fully restored, which has contributed to an overall recovery in exports. While the short-term indicators suggest that growth accelerated further in the following months, this was likely a one-off development and growth will slow in the second half of the year. Following the forced landing of a Ryanair plane in May, the EU imposed sectoral sanctions on Belarus, targeting industries such as petroleum products, potash fertilisers and tobacco-related products (meanwhile, Belarus has announced in response that it is leaving the EU Eastern Partnership). Still, GDP growth in 2021 as a whole may somewhat exceed the spring forecast, reaching 2.5%. However, the balance-of-payments constraints are of a lasting nature, putting the brakes on domestic demand. In consequence, sluggish economic performance will likely prevail in the years ahead.