Belarus

The economy has rebounded thanks to an improving external environment and a policy stimulus engineered through wage rises. Real disposable income rose sharply supporting an upturn in private consumption. GDP growth was entirely driven by domestic demand while net exports made a negative contribution. Recent indicators suggest that growth has passed its peak and will decelerate. In 2018 as a whole GDP could rise by 3.7%, but thereafter will likely slow down to around 3% in the following years.

map Belarus
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201620172018201920202021
Population, 1000 persons950294989484...
GDP, real change in %-2.52.53.03.02.8.
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)132001340014000...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-0.46.15.7...
Unemployment rate reg., in %, end of period0.80.50.30.50.5.
Average gross monthly wages, EUR328377396...
Consumer prices, % p.a.11.86.04.97.08.0.
Fiscal balance in % of GDP1.53.04.1...
Public debt in % of GDP53.553.444.0...
Current account in % of GDP-3.4-1.6-2.0-2.8-3.1.
FDI inflow, EUR mn113311301000...
Gross external debt in % of GDP83.369.070.3...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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BELARUS: Recovery driven by external factors and policy stimulus

Rumen Dobrinsky
in: Strong Growth Amid Increased Negative Risks
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2018, November 2018 , pp. 64-67
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Monthly Report No. 6/2018

Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2018
27 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure

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