Belarus
The economic slump in Belarus is coming to an end with GDP growing by 0.3% year on year in the first quarter. After the settling of the gas dispute with Russia, oil supplies to Belarus resumed at normal levels which propped up manufacturing output and exports. A tight monetary and fiscal stance contributed to a significant reduction in inflation. The prospects for the Belarus economy have improved but growth will probably remain modest in the coming years, at around 2-2.5% p.a.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 9475 | 9490 | 9502 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 1.7 | -3.8 | -2.6 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.6 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 13900 | 13700 | 13200 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 2.0 | -6.6 | -0.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate reg., in %, end of period | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 458 | 377 | 328 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 18.1 | 13.5 | 11.8 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 37.3 | 53.7 | 54.9 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -6.7 | -3.3 | -3.6 | -3.4 | -3.1 | -3.1 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 1445 | 1506 | 1133 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 54.1 | 69.4 | 83.8 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2017
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2017
27 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures
BELARUS: Turning the corner?
Rumen Dobrinsky
in: Cautious Upturn in CESEE: Haunted by the Spectre of Uncertainty
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2017, March 2017 , pp. 46-50
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