Belarus

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After 4.3% in 2024, GDP growth slowed markedly to 1.3% in 2025 and a mere 0.2% in Jan-April 2026. The key reason behind this is poor export performance amid weak demand from Russia and continued constraints on non-CIS markets due to sanctions. Although a rebound in exports of oil products to Russia since Q4 2025 has provided some relief, it has only partially offset the earlier losses. Domestic demand remains supportive of growth, but has lost momentum as well. On the supply side, manufacturing (previously the main growth driver) contracted by 2.5% in Jan-April 2026, reflecting both weak demand and large inventories, which had reached abnormally high levels by early 2026. ICT and transport have become the main contributors to GDP growth.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202320242025202620272028
Population, 1000 persons917891339083...
GDP, real change in %4.14.31.31.01.51.3
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)200002181022830...
Gross industrial production, real change in %7.75.4-1.8...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average3.53.02.52.52.62.7
Average gross monthly wages, EUR590652775...
Consumer prices, % p.a.5.15.76.75.95.75.5
Fiscal balance in % of GDP1.21.30.10.2-0.3-0.5
Public debt in % of GDP40.638.635.0...
Current account in % of GDP-1.0-2.1-1.9-1.5-1.3-1.0
FDI inflow, EUR m184216051422...
Gross external debt in % of GDP49.246.139.3...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2026

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Ioannis Gutzianas, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Isilda Mara, Michał Możdżeń, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2026
52 pages including 5 Tables

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
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