Belarus
The ongoing protests in Belarus have triggered the worst political crisis in recent history and brought to light some deep-seated problems. The economy is weakened and its prospects are bleak, as Belarus is facing grave structural problems and balance of payments constraints. A recent bailout by Russia is not sufficient to secure future financial sustainability. In the short run, Belarus will likely experience a protracted recession and possible further political and economic turbulence.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 9498 | 9484 | 9442 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | -2.5 | -1.2 | 1.3 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 12510 | 12710 | 13080 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 6.1 | 5.7 | 1.0 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.6 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 377 | 405 | 467 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 6.0 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.5 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 53.4 | 43.7 | 42.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -1.7 | 0.0 | -2.0 | -2.9 | -3.4 | -4.4 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 1130 | 1212 | 1139 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 68.9 | 67.3 | 64.4 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
BELARUS: Popular revolt with uncertain prospects
Rumen Dobrinsky
in: No Quick Recovery in Sight, with Coronavirus Risks Looming Large
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2020, November 2020 , pp. 40-44
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 11/2020
Alexandra Bykova, Branimir Jovanovic, Artem Kochnev and Sergey Markedonov
wiiw Monthly Report No. 11, November 2020
54 pages including 2 Tables and 30 Figures