Belarus
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 9380 | 9303 | 9228 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -0.7 | 2.4 | -4.7 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 13310 | 14540 | 14660 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -0.7 | 6.5 | -5.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 450 | 482 | 588 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 5.5 | 9.5 | 15.2 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.7 | 0.2 | -1.5 | -2.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 47.5 | 40.3 | 42.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -0.3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.7 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 1221 | 1044 | 1536 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 63.8 | 62.7 | 54.2 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Executive summary
Branimir Jovanović
in: Beneath the Veneer of Calm
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2023, October 2023 , pp. I-VI
Details
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2023
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2023
51 pages including 3 Tables, 24 Figures and 1 Box
In 2023, Belarus’s economy has performed considerably better than expected. While this largely reflects recovery from a low base, there have also been signs of adjustment to the effects of Western sanctions. With Russia’s assistance, Belarus has remodelled some logistical export chains. The authorities have maintained an accommodative policy stance, combining fiscal stimulus with monetary easing. We expect GDP to grow by 3.0% in 2023, and then to moderate to 2.2% and 2.5% in 2024 and 2025, respectively.