Belarus
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 9380 | 9303 | 9200 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -0.7 | 2.4 | -4.7 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 13280 | 14760 | 14520 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -0.7 | 6.5 | -5.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 450 | 482 | 588 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 5.5 | 9.5 | 15.2 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 10.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.7 | 0.2 | -2.0 | -3.0 | -2.0 | -1.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 47.5 | 40.3 | 42.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -0.3 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 1221 | 1044 | 1536 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 63.8 | 62.8 | 54.1 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 1/2023
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2023
44 pages including 4 Tables and 16 Figures
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Executive summary
Branimir Jovanović
in: Bracing for the Winter
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2022, October 2022 , pp. I-VIII
Details
The severe Western economic sanctions in response to Lukashenko’s support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have resulted in an almost total economic decoupling of Belarus from its traditional European partners. Despite the policy support measures undertaken by the government, and the easing of Belarus’s access to the Russian market, the unavoidable trade reorientation and the painful macroeconomic adjustment to the new external environment have resulted in a deep recession. According to preliminary estimates, GDP fell by 4.7% in 2022 (close to our October forecast). The recession probably bottomed out around mid-2022, since when there has been a slow improvement. Russia recently announced further support measures that may help Belarus counterbalance some of the adverse shocks. However, given the loss of important markets and suppliers of technological inputs, the prospects for the country are bleak in the medium term, with lingering economic weakness and macroeconomic instability. Even if the external environment does not deteriorate further, Belarus’s GDP in 2023 may grow by only 1%, and its rate of growth in 2024-2025 is unlikely to exceed 2%.