Belarus

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With Western sanctions applied in full, the recession in Belarus is deepening. In the period January-May 2022 gross aggregate output was 3.4% down year on year, while gross industrial production was down 4.2%. At the same time inflation picked up, with the 12-month consumer price index up by 17% year on year in May. The central bank has maintained a relatively loose monetary stance, keeping its policy rate (at 12% since March) well below expected inflation. After an initial dip in February-March the Belarusian rouble strengthened against the main Western currencies. In June the exchange rate against the US dollar stood at approximately the same level as before the start of the war in Ukraine. However, during the same period the Belarusian currency weakened by some 25% against the Russian rouble. These developments reflect the overall appreciation of the Russian currency and the reorientation of Belarusian trade flows to and from new markets, which has resulted in declining demand for the dollar and the euro. The short-term prospects for Belarus have deteriorated, and we now expect annual GDP to sink by 4.5% in 2022 which is 1 percentage point down from our spring forecast. The country’s economic performance will remain sluggish in the coming years.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201920202021202220232024
Population, 1000 persons942093809303...
GDP, real change in %1.4-0.72.3-4.51.02.0
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)136701352014540...
Gross industrial production, real change in %1.0-0.76.5...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average4.24.03.94.04.04.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR468450479...
Consumer prices, % p.a.5.65.59.515.012.011.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP2.4-1.70.2-4.0-2.0-2.0
Public debt in % of GDP41.047.541.2...
Current account in % of GDP-1.9-0.33.21.10.90.7
FDI inflow, EUR m113912211044...
Gross external debt in % of GDP63.263.864.1...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2022

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Bernhard Moshammer, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2022
58 pages including 4 Tables and 21 Figures

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Executive summary

Vasily Astrov
in: Overshadowed by War and Sanctions
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2022, April 2022 , pp. I-VII
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