Belarus
There was a remarkable economic turnaround in Belarus: GDP surged by an unexpectedly high 5.1% in the first quarter. Economic activity picked up across the board thanks to an improving external environment and a positive policy impetus resulting from the loosening of wage policy. The short-term prospects for the Belarusian economy have improved and GDP could grow by some 4% in 2018. However, the room for policy support is limited and growth will likely moderate in the following years.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 9490 | 9502 | 9498 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -3.8 | -2.5 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.4 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 13900 | 13400 | 13800 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -6.6 | -0.4 | 6.1 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate reg., in %, end of period | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 377 | 328 | 373 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 13.5 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3.0 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 53.0 | 53.9 | 48.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -3.3 | -3.4 | -1.6 | -2.6 | -3.0 | -3.1 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 1506 | 1133 | 1130 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 69.4 | 83.3 | 69.4 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 6/2018
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2018
27 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure
BELARUS: Improving external environment supports modest growth
Rumen Dobrinsky
in: Riding the Global Growth Wave
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2018, March 2018 , pp. 72-76
Details and Buy