Belarus
The Belarusian economy has weakened owing to disruption in gas and oil supplies from Russia. Economic performance in the first half of 2019 was only supported by domestic demand while exports and manufacturing output dropped. The combination of a negative external environment and policy restraint are expected to dominate in the near future as well. The short-term prospects for Belarus have deteriorated and we expect GDP growth to be around 1% in 2019 and slightly higher in the next two years.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 9502 | 9498 | 9484 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -2.5 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 13200 | 13400 | 14100 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -0.4 | 6.1 | 5.7 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate reg., in %, end of period | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 328 | 377 | 405 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 11.8 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 5.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 1.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 53.5 | 53.4 | 44.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -3.4 | -1.7 | -0.1 | -0.4 | -1.2 | -1.4 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 1133 | 1130 | 1212 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 83.3 | 68.9 | 67.8 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
BELARUS: Economic sluggishness likely to persist
Rumen Dobrinsky
in: Braced for Fallout from Global Slowdown
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2019, November 2019 , pp. 44-48
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 6/2019
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Hermine Vidovic and Goran Vuksic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2019
27 pages including 24 Tables and 1 Figure