Belarus

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In 2023, GDP grew by close to 4%, thereby almost totally recouping the losses incurred the previous year as a result of Western sanctions. This recovery was possible thanks to a widening of Russia’s economic support and accommodative domestic policies. Growth in 2023 was predominantly driven by domestic demand, which was boosted by the supportive policy stance. Belarus also managed to find new markets for a significant share of the exports it previously shipped to Western countries. Increased price controls helped to keep inflation in check, despite the loosening of fiscal and monetary policies. On the supply side, the upturn in manufacturing was the main factor that contributed to GDP growth last year: other sectors, such as agriculture and ICT, remained in recession. Over recent years, the Belarusian economy has suffered from severe underinvestment, which has reduced the potential for sustained high growth. The final months of 2023 suggest that the recovery has probably run its course, and so 2024 is expected to see lower GDP growth of around 2%. If the process of successful reorientation to new markets continues, economic growth could accelerate somewhat in the coming years, but will remain modest. The effect of price controls has weakened: inflation has been on the rise again and will probably reach some 8% in 2024.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202120222023202420252026
Population, 1000 persons930392289178...
GDP, real change in %2.4-4.73.92.02.53.0
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)145401513016090...
Gross industrial production, real change in %6.5-5.47.7...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average3.93.63.53.43.33.3
Average gross monthly wages, EUR482588586...
Consumer prices, % p.a.9.515.25.18.08.07.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP0.2-1.5-1.0-2.0-1.0-1.0
Public debt in % of GDP40.342.041.0...
Current account in % of GDP3.13.5-1.4-1.0-1.2-1.5
FDI inflow, EUR m104415361912...
Gross external debt in % of GDP62.753.549.8...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2024

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2024
50 pages including 5 Tables and 18 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Branimir Jovanović
in: Beneath the Veneer of Calm
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2023, October 2023 , pp. I-VI
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