Belarus

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In 2024, Belarusian GDP grew by 4.0%, driven by strong domestic demand, particularly household consumption, amid labour shortages and rising wages. However, growth began to slow in the second half of the year, due to weakening foreign demand, the financial strain on firms and increasing inflationary pressures. In 2025, growth is expected to decelerate further, with external demand stagnating and inflation rising as policy trade-offs emerge. The government may resort to fiscal stimuli, but these are unlikely to fully offset the downturn, leading to economic growth of below 2% and inflation in the 6-10% range.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202220232024202520262027
Population, 1000 persons922891789120...
GDP, real change in %-4.74.14.01.81.41.4
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)178402018021800...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-5.47.75.4...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average3.63.53.03.03.13.1
Average gross monthly wages, EUR593590652...
Consumer prices, % p.a.15.25.15.78.06.06.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-1.51.20.3-0.3-0.5-0.5
Public debt in % of GDP42.040.640.0...
Current account in % of GDP3.6-1.5-2.5-2.6-2.6-1.8
FDI inflow, EUR m152918421596...
Gross external debt in % of GDP53.249.248.0...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2025

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej J. Grodzicki, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2025
50 pages including 6 Tables and 13 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details


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