Belarus
Although Belarus experienced only a mild recession in 2020, the country is going through a period of political and economic turmoil. The disputed presidential election triggered mass protests and isolation from the international financial markets. Russia remains the only source of external funding; however, new lending may be conditional on tough political concessions. Given the growing financial constraints and the deep-seated structural problems, the economic outlook is rather bleak.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 9484 | 9443 | 9380 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.1 | 1.4 | -0.9 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 12710 | 13350 | 13720 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 5.7 | 1.0 | -0.7 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.8 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 405 | 468 | 449 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 4.9 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 4.0 | 2.4 | -3.0 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 43.7 | 42.0 | 48.3 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 0.0 | -1.9 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.9 | -1.1 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 1212 | 1139 | 1220 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 67.3 | 63.1 | 65.1 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
BELARUS: Trapped in a shaky economic situation
Rumen Dobrinsky
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 47-51
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 11/2020
Alexandra Bykova, Branimir Jovanovic, Artem Kochnev and Sergey Markedonov
wiiw Monthly Report No. 11, November 2020
54 pages including 2 Tables and 30 Figures