Belarus
Economic activity slowed down abruptly in the second half of 2018 due to a combination of domestic and external factors. These include changes in Russia’s energy taxation system which affect Belarus. Private consumption remained the main growth driver thanks to rising income and a boom in consumer credit. There are no imminent threats to macroeconomic stability but the short-term prospects have deteriorated and the Belarusian economy is expected to slow down in the coming years.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 9502 | 9498 | 9484 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -2.5 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 13200 | 13400 | 14000 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -0.4 | 6.1 | 5.7 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate reg., in %, end of period | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 328 | 377 | 396 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 11.8 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 1.5 | 3.0 | 4.1 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 53.5 | 53.4 | 44.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -3.4 | -1.7 | -0.4 | -2.5 | -2.6 | -2.7 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 1133 | 1130 | 1253 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 83.3 | 69.0 | 67.3 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
BELARUS: Growth set to slow down
Rumen Dobrinsky
in: Moving Into the Slow Lane
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2019, March 2019 , pp. 62-66
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 6/2018
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2018
27 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure