Belarus

map Belarus
Despite early signs of a slowdown at the beginning of the year, Belarusian GDP growth kept on accelerating in H1 2024. This was made possible by a rapid expansion in domestic demand (fuelled largely by real wages, pushed briskly upwards by the labour shortage) and a fresh surge in exports to Russia. For 2024 as a whole, we project GDP to grow by 4%, followed by 2.2% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026. This slowdown will result from a weaker growth in exports – owing to a lack of available production capacity and moderating demand from Russia – as well as a weaker growth in domestic demand, as various macroeconomic factors make their presence felt.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202220232024202520262027
Population, 1000 persons92289178....
GDP, real change in %-4.74.14.02.21.3.
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)1784020180....
Gross industrial production, real change in %-5.47.7....
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average3.63.53.03.03.1.
Average gross monthly wages, EUR593590....
Consumer prices, % p.a.15.25.15.88.06.0.
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-1.51.20.3-0.3-0.5.
Public debt in % of GDP42.040.6....
Current account in % of GDP3.6-1.5-1.3-1.6-1.7.
FDI inflow, EUR m15291842....
Gross external debt in % of GDP53.249.2....


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2024

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2024
45 pages including 5 Tables and 12 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII Details

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