Belarus
GDP grew by 1.1% in the first quarter, which was a modest recovery after the downturn in the second half of 2018. Private consumption provided the main impetus to growth thanks to a continued rise in real wages and consumer credit. Economic relations with Russia remain tense due to continuing trade disputes, in particular, related to the supply of oil and gas. GDP growth is expected to remain sluggish in the short run and is likely to be around 2% for 2019 as a whole.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 9502 | 9498 | 9484 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -2.5 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 13200 | 13400 | 14100 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -0.4 | 6.1 | 5.7 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate reg., in %, end of period | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 328 | 377 | 399 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 11.8 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 1.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 53.5 | 53.4 | 44.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -3.4 | -1.7 | -0.1 | -0.9 | -1.2 | -1.7 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 1133 | 1130 | 1212 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 83.3 | 68.9 | 67.8 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 6/2019
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Hermine Vidovic and Goran Vuksic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2019
27 pages including 24 Tables and 1 Figure
BELARUS: Growth set to slow down
Rumen Dobrinsky
in: Moving Into the Slow Lane
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2019, March 2019 , pp. 62-66
Details and Buy