Kosovo

map Kosovo
Year-on-year growth was 8.4% in Q1 2022. But thereafter the economy lost steam: for the year as a whole, it probably grew by only 3.1%. Highly dependent as Kosovo is on imports, the transmission of high international food and energy prices resulted in an 11% broad-based rise in consumer prices in 2022. The trade balance deteriorated further, although goods exports maintained their positive showing; the level of remittances continued high (close to 15% of GDP); and, against all the odds, foreign direct investment inflows recorded another good year. The expectation is that 2023 will be another difficult year in terms of the country’s energy requirements: the government extended its energy emergency measures for January, although the mild winter has helped keep heating systems (often) switched off. Wage rises following the new law on public-sector salaries – expected to come into force in February – will certainly have positive spill-overs for consumption, but will have an adverse impact on the fiscal deficit. Overall, we expect economic growth to pick up to 3.4% this year – driven mainly by domestic demand – though the downside risks remain elevated.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202020212022202320242025
Population, 1000 persons17901786....
GDP, real change in %-5.310.73.13.43.84.0
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)74008660....
Gross industrial production, real change in %0.80.3....
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average25.920.724.223.523.222.5
Average gross monthly wages, EUR466484....
Consumer prices, % p.a.0.23.411.67.02.52.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-7.6-1.31.0-1.00.50.5
Public debt in % of GDP22.021.1....
Current account in % of GDP-7.0-8.7-8.9-8.2-7.4-7.0
FDI inflow, EUR m346421....
Gross external debt in % of GDP37.237.4....


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

publication_icon

Monthly Report No. 1/2023

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2023
44 pages including 4 Tables and 16 Figures

Details

publication_icon

Executive summary

Branimir Jovanović
in: Bracing for the Winter
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2022, October 2022 , pp. I-VIII
Details


top