Kosovo
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 1768 | 1775 | . | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.1 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 8750 | 9750 | . | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 12.3 | 9.0 | . | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 12.5 | 10.9 | 10.8 | 10.7 | 10.6 | 10.2 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 521 | 570 | . | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 11.6 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -1.0 | -0.5 | -0.5 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 19.7 | 17.2 | . | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -10.3 | -7.5 | -7.8 | -7.8 | -7.6 | -8.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 732 | 840 | . | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 38.6 | 39.6 | . | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 1/2025
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej J. Grodzicki, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2025
50 pages including 6 Tables and 13 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
We estimate that in 2024, GDP grew by 4.3%, fuelled by strong investment, robust FDI inflows (reaching 13% of GDP for the first three quarters of 2024) and solid household consumption, which was supported by an easing of inflation from 4.5% in 2023 to 1.6% in 2024. Data for the first three quarters of 2024 indicate that the government maintained fiscal discipline, with further improvements in revenue (increasing to 31% of GDP in 2024, compared to 29% in 2023). Together with the restrained government spending, this helped maintain a modest budget deficit of around 0.5% to 1% of GDP. Exports of both goods and services grew strongly in 2024, the former reflecting increased demand for Kosovo’s goods – especially in the EU and neighbouring countries – and improved domestic production (up 3.4% for the first three quarters of 2024, year on year). However, the current account deficit deteriorated further, as imports still grew faster than exports. The unemployment rate continued to drop, but remains above 10%. As of October 2024, the minimum monthly wage in Kosovo was doubled, to EUR 350. Still, this is one of the lowest in the in the EU and neighbouring countries. Low earning levels and limited job prospects are the main reasons behind the high youth migration. The parliamentary elections are set for 9 February 2025, and the strong position of Prime Minister Kurti suggests that he will win. However, geopolitical risks and the difficult dialogue with Serbia remain issues of concern. Overall, the economy has shown remarkable resilience, and growth is expected to hover at above 4% in the medium term, driven primarily by private consumption.