Kosovo
The political unrest continues unabated, despite the COVID-19 emergency. Given the high exposure of Kosovo to Germany and Switzerland – especially as concerns remittances, foreign direct investment and exports – the downside effect of the lockdown will be felt strongly. International financial support will, in part, come to the rescue. Still the economy is expected to contract by more than 4% in 2020.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 1791 | 1797 | 1820 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.2 | -4.4 | 4.0 | . |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 7700 | 8100 | 8500 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 4.9 | -1.3 | 3.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 30.5 | 29.6 | 25.7 | 27.0 | 26.0 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 528 | 558 | 600 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 1.5 | 1.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 | . |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 1.3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 15.5 | 16.3 | 17.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -5.4 | -7.6 | -5.8 | -7.5 | -6.0 | . |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 255 | 272 | 272 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 32.6 | 30.3 | 30.8 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Due to the unusually high level of uncertainty caused by COVID-19, we only present forecasts for 2020-2021.
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures
KOSOVO: Great expectations and major challenges facing the new government
Isilda Mara
in: Uncertainty in Turbulent Times
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2020, March 2020 , pp. 99-102
Details and Buy