Kosovo
The economy will remain one of the fastest growing in Europe during the 2017 2019 forecast period, driven by remittances and investment. Domestic demand-driven growth and limited export capacity will mean that the large external deficit will widen further. The IMF programme will be key to maintaining fiscal discipline. Political risks have risen, but should remain contained and are unlikely to significantly derail the economy’s momentum.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| Population, 1000 persons. | 1813 | 1788 | 1185 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 1.2 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 6700 | 7400 | 7800 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -1.3 | 5.0 | -1.1 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 35.3 | 32.9 | 27.5 | 25.8 | 25.5 | 25.2 |
| Average net monthly wages, EUR | 416 | 446 | 463 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 0.4 | -0.5 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.9 | 1.6 | -1.9 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 10.5 | 12.9 | 13.2 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -6.9 | -8.6 | -9.2 | -12.8 | -12.7 | -11.8 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 151 | 309 | 216 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 31.2 | 33.3 | 40.1 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 6/2017
Vasily Astrov, Pëllumb Collaku, Mahdi Ghodsi and Leon Podkaminer
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2017
47 pages including 4 Tables and 21 Figures
KOSOVO: Remittances to continue driving growth
Richard Grieveson
in: Cautious Upturn in CESEE: Haunted by the Spectre of Uncertainty
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2017, March 2017 , pp. 81-85
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