Kosovo
Despite the political tensions, in March the parliament ratified a border demarcation agreement with Montenegro – a precondition for granting Kosovans visa-free travel to the Schengen area. Growth in 2018 will be investment driven, via public and private financing. Consumption is expected to recover and will positively contribute to growth, underpinned by increases in remittance inflows and employment. The fiscal stance and the financial sector remain supportive of growth. In 2018 the current account deficit is expected to widen. We expect real GDP growth of around 4% this year and through the medium term.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 1788 | 1778 | 1784 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 7400 | 7700 | 8000 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 4.8 | 2.8 | 4.0 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 32.9 | 27.5 | 30.5 | 27.0 | 25.2 | 24.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 510 | 519 | 511 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | -0.5 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 1.6 | 0.2 | 1.4 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 12.9 | 14.0 | 15.9 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -8.6 | -7.9 | -6.6 | -5.8 | -6.0 | -6.2 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 309 | 220 | 288 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 33.3 | 33.7 | 33.1 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 6/2018
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2018
27 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure
KOSOVO: Growth at healthy levels, helped by boom in Western Europe
Richard Grieveson
in: Riding the Global Growth Wave
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2018, March 2018 , pp. 106-109
Details and Buy