Kosovo
Against all expectations, remittances, foreign direct investment and goods exports rose during the pandemic. Still, the negative economic fallout has been considerable and the economy is expected to contract by 5% in 2020. The government has approved a recovery plan worth EUR 365 million to relaunch the economy. Remittances will continue to cushion consumption, and private investments will gain momentum in the medium term. The economy is expected to bounce back in 2021, with growth of 5%. However, recovery remains uncertain, given the continued presence of COVID-19.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 1791 | 1797 | 1789 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.9 | -5.1 | 4.8 | 4.3 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 7220 | 7610 | 7980 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 4.9 | -1.3 | 6.3 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 30.5 | 29.6 | 25.7 | 26.5 | 26.0 | 25.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 528 | 558 | 600 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 1.5 | 1.1 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 1.3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 15.5 | 16.3 | 16.9 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -5.4 | -7.6 | -5.6 | -6.0 | -7.2 | -8.3 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 255 | 272 | 255 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 32.6 | 30.3 | 31.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
KOSOVO: Rising remittances limit the extent of economic decline
Isilda Mara
in: No Quick Recovery in Sight, with Coronavirus Risks Looming Large
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2020, November 2020 , pp. 73-76
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures