Kosovo
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 1789 | 1790 | 1786 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.8 | -5.3 | 10.7 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 3.9 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 8020 | 7550 | 8970 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 6.3 | 0.8 | 21.7 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 25.7 | 25.9 | 24.5 | 24.3 | 23.8 | 23.5 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 477 | 466 | 484 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.7 | 0.2 | 3.4 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.9 | -7.6 | -1.3 | -2.0 | -2.0 | -1.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 17.0 | 22.0 | 21.1 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -5.7 | -7.0 | -8.5 | -9.9 | -9.8 | -9.4 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 255 | 346 | 415 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 31.2 | 37.2 | 37.4 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2022
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Bernhard Moshammer, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2022
58 pages including 4 Tables and 21 Figures
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Executive summary
Vasily Astrov
in: Overshadowed by War and Sanctions
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2022, April 2022 , pp. I-VII
Details
We expect economic growth to accelerate to 3.3% this year. Growth will be consumption-led, albeit at a slower pace than in 2022. Kosovo’s high dependence on imports makes it quite exposed to international price dynamics. Inflation reached 9.7% year on year in January-May 2022, while price hikes in electricity, food products and transport reached 12%, 13% and 17%, respectively, over the same period. We expected consumer price inflation to hover at 8.5% this year. Remittances are coming to the rescue, and they will certainly help to smooth consumption, as they also did during the pandemic. In the first four months of the year remittances recorded a rise of 6% compared with the same period in 2021. In June 2022 the gross minimum wage rose to EUR 264, from EUR 150 previously, which will affect 27% of employees. In April 2020 the government offered a lump sum of EUR 100 to 800.000 citizens – 44% of the total population, mainly pensioners, public- and private-sector employees and students – to cope with the strong rise in prices. For the time being energy security challenges are being met. Imports of electricity declined slightly, while exports rose by 20% year on year in the first four months of 2022. The international energy turmoil has pushed many countries to go back to coal for their energy production. This is reflected in the strong rise of lignite exports from Kosovo, which in real terms rose tenfold in January-April 2022, year on year. Positive dynamics are also recorded for foreign direct investment inflows, which were up by 41% in Q1 2022, year on year, although the majority of this continues to be absorbed by the real estate sector.