Kosovo
We forecast that growth will strengthen further to above 4%. Imminent risks due to political tensions surrounding the consultations about territorial swapping with Serbia remain high. Infrastructure investments will be a major driver of growth in the medium term boosted by private and public investments. The banking sector remains solid and well capitalised and credit growth is expected to continue on its upward trend. The fiscal stance and monetary policy remain supportive of growth.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 1778 | 1791 | 1813 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.2 | . |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 7600 | 7700 | 8000 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -6.7 | 4.9 | 3.0 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 27.5 | 30.5 | 29.0 | 26.0 | 24.0 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 519 | 511 | 530 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 0.3 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.0 | . |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 0.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 14.0 | 15.9 | 17.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -7.9 | -6.1 | -6.4 | -6.3 | -6.9 | . |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 220 | 255 | 230 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 33.2 | 33.2 | 32.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
KOSOVO: Plans for territorial swap with Serbia likely to be thwarted
Isilda Mara
in: Strong Growth Amid Increased Negative Risks
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2018, November 2018 , pp. 96-99
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 6/2018
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2018
27 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure